这两点完全错得离谱。 在进入加密行业之前,我曾在 Airbnb 做反欺诈。因此,我经常和 Uber 的反欺诈团队交流。Uber 之所以放弃中国市场,就是因为遭遇了成批职业化欺诈团伙的疯狂攻击——他们每个月制造成千上万次假订单来薅 Uber 的补贴。Uber 在中国几乎就是被“薅羊毛”薅到倒闭的。 任何提供激励机制的科技公司都必须应对欺诈,并且要预料到一定比例的补贴会被骗子拿走(在加密行业我们称之为“farmers”)。认为这种情况是加密行业独有的想法,实在太荒谬。很多 Web2 创业公司之所以倒闭,就是因为他们没能有效控制激励滥用,而投资人却被告诉这是在“补贴需求”。 Gwart 的第二个观点是:在加密行业,这些激励是“零成本”发放的,而在 Web2 公司里,“风投是在烧真金白银。” 请停下来想一想——当这些“薅羊毛的人”把你给的代币抛掉时,他们最终拿到的是什么?他们卖成了现金。 所以 在 Web2 里: 股权 ⇒ 卖给私募投资者换成现金 ⇒ 用现金补贴用户 ⇒ 用户拿到现金 在加密里: 代币 ⇒ 给用户代币 ⇒ 用户抛售代币 ⇒ 用户拿到现金 这完全是同一件事,你只是跳过了一个中间环节而已。 市场会在不断试错中进化。从失败中学习,区分“好支出”和“坏支出”。过去加密初创公司认为大量砸钱做短期激励是有效的,但现在他们已经意识到这并不起作用,并正在调整策略。在“零工经济”时代也是同样的过程——大量公司倒闭,幸存者学会了让经济模型变得可持续。 Literally dead wrong on both points. I worked in anti-fraud at Airbnb before I got into crypto. So I often shared notes with people who worked in anti-fraud at Uber. Uber gave up their China business because they were beset with waves of professionalized fraud rings, taking thousands of fake rides a month to farm Uber incentives. Uber was quite literally farmed out of business in China. Every tech company that offers incentives has to police fraud, and they expect some amount of waste that gets captured by fraudsters (in crypto we call them "farmers"). The idea that this is unique to crypto is silly. Many, many web2 startups have gone out of business because they failed to put a lid on incentive abuse, while investors were told they were "subsidizing demand." Part 2 of Gwart's claim is that in crypto, these incentives are given out "at 0 cost," while in web2 companies, "VCs are burning real cash." Stop and think for a second. What do farmers get if they are dumping your token incentives? They are selling it for cash. So, in web2: equity => sell for cash to private investors => give cash to user => user gets cash web2: tokens => give user tokens => user dumps tokens => user gets cash It's the same damn thing, you're just skipping a middleman. Markets evolve through trying shit and learning from failure. There is good spend and bad spend. To the extent that crypto startups previously thought spending a lot of money on short-term incentives was effective, they have now learned that it isn't, and they adapt. Same thing was learned in the "gig economy" era where a bunch of companies went bust, and the ones that survived learned how to keep economics sustainable.

HaseebManaging partner, dragonfly_xyz
目录

观点原文

这两点完全错得离谱。

在进入加密行业之前,我曾在 Airbnb 做反欺诈。因此,我经常和 Uber 的反欺诈团队交流。Uber 之所以放弃中国市场,就是因为遭遇了成批职业化欺诈团伙的疯狂攻击——他们每个月制造成千上万次假订单来薅 Uber 的补贴。Uber 在中国几乎就是被“薅羊毛”薅到倒闭的。

任何提供激励机制的科技公司都必须应对欺诈,并且要预料到一定比例的补贴会被骗子拿走(在加密行业我们称之为“farmers”)。认为这种情况是加密行业独有的想法,实在太荒谬。很多 Web2 创业公司之所以倒闭,就是因为他们没能有效控制激励滥用,而投资人却被告诉这是在“补贴需求”。

Gwart 的第二个观点是:在加密行业,这些激励是“零成本”发放的,而在 Web2 公司里,“风投是在烧真金白银。”

请停下来想一想——当这些“薅羊毛的人”把你给的代币抛掉时,他们最终拿到的是什么?他们卖成了现金。

所以

在 Web2 里:

股权 ⇒ 卖给私募投资者换成现金 ⇒ 用现金补贴用户 ⇒ 用户拿到现金

在加密里:

代币 ⇒ 给用户代币 ⇒ 用户抛售代币 ⇒ 用户拿到现金

这完全是同一件事,你只是跳过了一个中间环节而已。

市场会在不断试错中进化。从失败中学习,区分“好支出”和“坏支出”。过去加密初创公司认为大量砸钱做短期激励是有效的,但现在他们已经意识到这并不起作用,并正在调整策略。在“零工经济”时代也是同样的过程——大量公司倒闭,幸存者学会了让经济模型变得可持续。

Literally dead wrong on both points.

I worked in anti-fraud at Airbnb before I got into crypto. So I often shared notes with people who worked in anti-fraud at Uber. Uber gave up their China business because they were beset with waves of professionalized fraud rings, taking thousands of fake rides a month to farm Uber incentives. Uber was quite literally farmed out of business in China.

Every tech company that offers incentives has to police fraud, and they expect some amount of waste that gets captured by fraudsters (in crypto we call them "farmers"). The idea that this is unique to crypto is silly. Many, many web2 startups have gone out of business because they failed to put a lid on incentive abuse, while investors were told they were "subsidizing demand."

Part 2 of Gwart's claim is that in crypto, these incentives are given out "at 0 cost," while in web2 companies, "VCs are burning real cash."

Stop and think for a second. What do farmers get if they are dumping your token incentives? They are selling it for cash.

So, in web2: equity => sell for cash to private investors => give cash to user => user gets cash

web2: tokens => give user tokens => user dumps tokens => user gets cash

It's the same damn thing, you're just skipping a middleman.

Markets evolve through trying shit and learning from failure. There is good spend and bad spend. To the extent that crypto startups previously thought spending a lot of money on short-term incentives was effective, they have now learned that it isn't, and they adapt. Same thing was learned in the "gig economy" era where a bunch of companies went bust, and the ones that survived learned how to keep economics sustainable.

ABAB AI 解读

① “加密行业的激励被滥用”不是独特现象,Web2 一样被农(fraud farming)搞垮

发言者说:“我在 Airbnb 做过反欺诈,我们和 Uber 反欺诈团队交流过。Uber 被专业欺诈团队刷单、刷补贴,最后彻底退出中国市场。”

重点:

  • 当时中国的刷单产业链极其成熟
  • 专业团队每月制造数千条假订单
  • 目的:套取补贴
  • Uber 被“薅羊毛”到无法运营
  • 不是竞争对手打败了 Uber,是“补贴农场”把它拖垮的
  • 这是一个极其罕见但真实的内部视角。

总结:Web2 时代,那些靠补贴增长的公司,大量补贴都被“农”走了。Crypto 并非特例。

② 激励浪费,不是 Crypto 的问题,而是所有补贴产品的共性问题

文中说:“每一个有激励机制的科技公司,都必须反欺诈,都必须承担一定程度的‘被撸羊毛’损失。”

例如:

  • Uber
  • Lyft
  • 周期性补贴的外卖公司
  • 共享单车
  • Airbnb 新用户补贴
  • 网约车补贴
  • 会员拉新返现
  • 电商返利平台

它们全部遭遇过类似情况。

所以发言者强调:“把激励滥用说成是 Crypto 独有现象,这很可笑。”

因为 Web2 里太多公司死于“补贴烧钱 + 激励滥用”。

包括共享单车在中国发生的惨烈补贴大战。

③ 激励并不是“免费钱”,Crypto 和 Web2 的激励模式本质相同

Gwart 的观点是:“Web2 烧投资人的现金,而 Crypto 发的是‘零成本的代币’。”

发言者反驳得非常逻辑严密:

Web2 模式是:VC 投钱 → 公司拿现金补贴用户 → 用户获得现金

Crypto 模式是:项目发 token → 用户卖 token → 用户获得现金

最后用户拿到的都是现金。

所以发言人说:“这完全一样,你只是略过了一个中间环节。”

也就是说:

  • Web2:股权 → 现金 → 用户
  • Crypto:代币 → 用户(卖掉换现金)

“零成本代币”其实不是真的零成本,因为一旦用户卖掉,等于项目方付出了真实经济成本:代币被抛售 → 价格下跌 → 项目市值降低。

这是 Crypto & Web2 的经济等价性。

④ 市场会试错,每个阶段都会从“乱烧补贴”走向“可持续性增长”

发言者总结:“市场通过不断试错演化。有好支出和坏支出。

Crypto 也学到了:短期激励不能带来长期用户。”

这与 Web2 的历史完全一致:

  • 外卖大战烧死一半公司
  • 网约车大战烧死一半公司
  • 共享单车大战烧死几乎所有公司

最后留下的是经济模型稳定、反欺诈体系成熟、补贴逻辑可持续的玩家

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