首页人物观点加密世界里一直都有“赌场”。比特币上第一个真正病毒式传播的应用是 Satoshi Dice（2012）。以太坊上第一个爆火的智能合约是 King of the Ether Throne（2015），本质上就是一种“烫手山芋式庞氏游戏”。一旦你拥有了可编程的货币，人们做的第一件事就是赌博、玩一些愚蠢的游戏。这是人性。加密世界里从来都有热门赌场。永远都有。从 ICO 赌场，到 DeFi 食物币赌场，到 NFT 赌场，再到现在的 memecoin 赌场。形式会变化，但赌博深深嵌入在人类天性里。甚至早在文字发明之初（公元前3000年的古苏美尔），就有赌博的记录。赌场闪闪发亮，在社交媒体上获得极大关注（因为财富会在这里瞬间暴涨或蒸发，而人们很容易说服自己“这次就是我的好运时刻”）。但是，如果你只盯着赌场的光芒，你就会错过更大的故事。让我十年前踏入这个行业的那个故事—— 当时听起来像科幻小说—— 加密货币是一种更优的金融底层结构，它将永远改变货币的本质，也会永久改变个人与政府之间的权力平衡。 ——这个故事，现在真的正在发生。比特币正在挑战国家机器。各国开始把它放进自己的资产负债表。稳定币正在扭曲货币政策。各国央行慌忙应对。像 Uniswap 和 AAVE 这种无需许可的智能合约，现在比许多独角兽金融科技公司更大、更有价值。世界正在随加密而改变形状。也许这一切比你预想得更久，但变革性技术的扩散几乎总是比你想象得更慢。我曾以为生成式 AI 会在几年内彻底改变就业市场，但在 ChatGPT 出现三年后，它仍没有体现在 GDP 或就业数据中。改变世界是很难的。需要时间，也需要工作。工业革命始于 1781 年蒸汽机的商业化，但直到 1830 年——整整 50 年后——才真正影响生产率、就业和工资。互联网如大家所知，也花了 20 多年。你真的以为我们能在短短 5 年内颠覆整个金融体系吗？这是全世界监管最严、最敏感的行业。如果你因为自己做了一个 memecoin L2 之类的项目没有暴富而绝望，请深呼吸一下。这个行业并不欠你什么。而这些“精神投降”、抱怨与悲观，信不信由你，其实是健康的。一片森林之所以能保持强韧，是因为它会定期清除枯木。没有周期性的火灾来清理，腐朽会蔓延，整片森林都会腐烂。现实是残酷的——要继续成长，就必须清理掉那些已经不再贡献价值的部分。所有这些负面情绪必须以某种方式被排出。让这些人慢慢离开，空气就会变得清新。要么他们改变想法、重新关注未来，要么他们离开，让剩下的人继续把事情做完。因为—— 这项事业还没有完成。 There have always been casinos in crypto. The first viral application on Bitcoin was Satoshi Dice (2012). The first viral smart contract on Ethereum was King of the Ether Throne (2015), which was basically a hot potato ponzi scheme. Once you have programmable money, the first thing people will do is gamble and play stupid games. It's human nature. There's always been a hot casino in crypto. Always. The ICO casino, the DeFi food coin casinos, the NFT casinos, and now the memecoin casino. It evolves over time, but gambling is deeply ingrained in human nature. Literally as soon as humanity invented writing (ancient Sumeria in 3000 BC), there's records of people gambling. The casino is shiny and gets a lot of attention on social media (it's where fortunes are quickly won and lost, and it's easy to convince yourself that this is your lucky break), but if you only pay attention to the shimmer of the casinos, you're missing the bigger story. The story I originally got into this industry for, that sounded like sci-fi to me ten years ago—that crypto is a better substrate for finance, that it will forever alter the nature of money, and that the balance of power between individuals and governments will be permanently changed—that story is actually happening. Bitcoin is challenging nation states. They are now buying it on their own balance sheets. Stablecoins are bending monetary policy. Central banks are scrambling to respond. Permissionless smart contracts like Uniswap and AAVE are now bigger and more valuable than unicorn fintechs. The world is warping around crypto. Maybe it took longer than you thought, but transformative technologies almost always take longer to diffuse than you think. I thought generative AI would completely transform the job market within a couple years, but three years after ChatGPT, it still doesn't show up in GDP or employment stats. It's hard to change the world. Takes work. The industrial revolution began with the commercialization of the steam engine in 1781, but even the industrial revolution didn't have any impact on productivity, employment, or wage growth until 1830—that's 50 years later. The Internet, as we all know, took 20+ years. Did you think we'd be displacing all of finance, the most regulated and governmentally sensitive industry in the world, in the span of just 5 years? If you're despondent that you were working on a memecoin L2 or whatever and didn't get rich, take a deep fucking breath. This industry doesn't owe you that. And yet, all this spiritual capitulation on the timeline, believe it or not, is healthy. A forest only stays robust when it periodically sheds the deadwood. Without occasional fires to clear it out, decay spreads and the whole forest rots. It's a harsh reality, but the only way to keep growing is to clear out whatever's no longer contributing. All this negativity on the timeline needs to flush out one way or another. Let people keep shuffling out, and the air will clear. Either these people must change their minds and refocus on the future, or they need to leave so the rest of us can do our jobs. Because the job is not yet done.

加密世界里一直都有“赌场”。比特币上第一个真正病毒式传播的应用是 Satoshi Dice（2012）。以太坊上第一个爆火的智能合约是 King of the Ether Throne（2015），本质上就是一种“烫手山芋式庞氏游戏”。一旦你拥有了可编程的货币，人们做的第一件事就是赌博、玩一些愚蠢的游戏。这是人性。加密世界里从来都有热门赌场。永远都有。从 ICO 赌场，到 DeFi 食物币赌场，到 NFT 赌场，再到现在的 memecoin 赌场。形式会变化，但赌博深深嵌入在人类天性里。甚至早在文字发明之初（公元前3000年的古苏美尔），就有赌博的记录。赌场闪闪发亮，在社交媒体上获得极大关注（因为财富会在这里瞬间暴涨或蒸发，而人们很容易说服自己“这次就是我的好运时刻”）。但是，如果你只盯着赌场的光芒，你就会错过更大的故事。让我十年前踏入这个行业的那个故事—— 当时听起来像科幻小说—— 加密货币是一种更优的金融底层结构，它将永远改变货币的本质，也会永久改变个人与政府之间的权力平衡。 ——这个故事，现在真的正在发生。比特币正在挑战国家机器。各国开始把它放进自己的资产负债表。稳定币正在扭曲货币政策。各国央行慌忙应对。像 Uniswap 和 AAVE 这种无需许可的智能合约，现在比许多独角兽金融科技公司更大、更有价值。世界正在随加密而改变形状。也许这一切比你预想得更久，但变革性技术的扩散几乎总是比你想象得更慢。我曾以为生成式 AI 会在几年内彻底改变就业市场，但在 ChatGPT 出现三年后，它仍没有体现在 GDP 或就业数据中。改变世界是很难的。需要时间，也需要工作。工业革命始于 1781 年蒸汽机的商业化，但直到 1830 年——整整 50 年后——才真正影响生产率、就业和工资。互联网如大家所知，也花了 20 多年。你真的以为我们能在短短 5 年内颠覆整个金融体系吗？这是全世界监管最严、最敏感的行业。如果你因为自己做了一个 memecoin L2 之类的项目没有暴富而绝望，请深呼吸一下。这个行业并不欠你什么。而这些“精神投降”、抱怨与悲观，信不信由你，其实是健康的。一片森林之所以能保持强韧，是因为它会定期清除枯木。没有周期性的火灾来清理，腐朽会蔓延，整片森林都会腐烂。现实是残酷的——要继续成长，就必须清理掉那些已经不再贡献价值的部分。所有这些负面情绪必须以某种方式被排出。让这些人慢慢离开，空气就会变得清新。要么他们改变想法、重新关注未来，要么他们离开，让剩下的人继续把事情做完。因为—— 这项事业还没有完成。 There have always been casinos in crypto. The first viral application on Bitcoin was Satoshi Dice (2012). The first viral smart contract on Ethereum was King of the Ether Throne (2015), which was basically a hot potato ponzi scheme. Once you have programmable money, the first thing people will do is gamble and play stupid games. It's human nature. There's always been a hot casino in crypto. Always. The ICO casino, the DeFi food coin casinos, the NFT casinos, and now the memecoin casino. It evolves over time, but gambling is deeply ingrained in human nature. Literally as soon as humanity invented writing (ancient Sumeria in 3000 BC), there's records of people gambling. The casino is shiny and gets a lot of attention on social media (it's where fortunes are quickly won and lost, and it's easy to convince yourself that this is your lucky break), but if you only pay attention to the shimmer of the casinos, you're missing the bigger story. The story I originally got into this industry for, that sounded like sci-fi to me ten years ago—that crypto is a better substrate for finance, that it will forever alter the nature of money, and that the balance of power between individuals and governments will be permanently changed—that story is actually happening. Bitcoin is challenging nation states. They are now buying it on their own balance sheets. Stablecoins are bending monetary policy. Central banks are scrambling to respond. Permissionless smart contracts like Uniswap and AAVE are now bigger and more valuable than unicorn fintechs. The world is warping around crypto. Maybe it took longer than you thought, but transformative technologies almost always take longer to diffuse than you think. I thought generative AI would completely transform the job market within a couple years, but three years after ChatGPT, it still doesn't show up in GDP or employment stats. It's hard to change the world. Takes work. The industrial revolution began with the commercialization of the steam engine in 1781, but even the industrial revolution didn't have any impact on productivity, employment, or wage growth until 1830—that's 50 years later. The Internet, as we all know, took 20+ years. Did you think we'd be displacing all of finance, the most regulated and governmentally sensitive industry in the world, in the span of just 5 years? If you're despondent that you were working on a memecoin L2 or whatever and didn't get rich, take a deep fucking breath. This industry doesn't owe you that. And yet, all this spiritual capitulation on the timeline, believe it or not, is healthy. A forest only stays robust when it periodically sheds the deadwood. Without occasional fires to clear it out, decay spreads and the whole forest rots. It's a harsh reality, but the only way to keep growing is to clear out whatever's no longer contributing. All this negativity on the timeline needs to flush out one way or another. Let people keep shuffling out, and the air will clear. Either these people must change their minds and refocus on the future, or they need to leave so the rest of us can do our jobs. Because the job is not yet done.

HaseebManaging partner, dragonfly_xyz

2025/12/07 03:38 UTC

观点原文

加密世界里一直都有“赌场”。

比特币上第一个真正病毒式传播的应用是 Satoshi Dice（2012）。

以太坊上第一个爆火的智能合约是 King of the Ether Throne（2015），本质上就是一种“烫手山芋式庞氏游戏”。

一旦你拥有了可编程的货币，人们做的第一件事就是赌博、玩一些愚蠢的游戏。这是人性。

加密世界里从来都有热门赌场。永远都有。从 ICO 赌场，到 DeFi 食物币赌场，到 NFT 赌场，再到现在的 memecoin 赌场。形式会变化，但赌博深深嵌入在人类天性里。甚至早在文字发明之初（公元前3000年的古苏美尔），就有赌博的记录。

赌场闪闪发亮，在社交媒体上获得极大关注（因为财富会在这里瞬间暴涨或蒸发，而人们很容易说服自己“这次就是我的好运时刻”）。但是，如果你只盯着赌场的光芒，你就会错过更大的故事。

让我十年前踏入这个行业的那个故事——

当时听起来像科幻小说——

加密货币是一种更优的金融底层结构，它将永远改变货币的本质，也会永久改变个人与政府之间的权力平衡。

——这个故事，现在真的正在发生。

比特币正在挑战国家机器。各国开始把它放进自己的资产负债表。稳定币正在扭曲货币政策。各国央行慌忙应对。像 Uniswap 和 AAVE 这种无需许可的智能合约，现在比许多独角兽金融科技公司更大、更有价值。世界正在随加密而改变形状。

也许这一切比你预想得更久，但变革性技术的扩散几乎总是比你想象得更慢。我曾以为生成式 AI 会在几年内彻底改变就业市场，但在 ChatGPT 出现三年后，它仍没有体现在 GDP 或就业数据中。

改变世界是很难的。需要时间，也需要工作。

工业革命始于 1781 年蒸汽机的商业化，但直到 1830 年——整整 50 年后——才真正影响生产率、就业和工资。

互联网如大家所知，也花了 20 多年。

你真的以为我们能在短短 5 年内颠覆整个金融体系吗？

这是全世界监管最严、最敏感的行业。

如果你因为自己做了一个 memecoin L2 之类的项目没有暴富而绝望，请深呼吸一下。这个行业并不欠你什么。

而这些“精神投降”、抱怨与悲观，信不信由你，其实是健康的。

一片森林之所以能保持强韧，是因为它会定期清除枯木。

没有周期性的火灾来清理，腐朽会蔓延，整片森林都会腐烂。现实是残酷的——要继续成长，就必须清理掉那些已经不再贡献价值的部分。

所有这些负面情绪必须以某种方式被排出。

让这些人慢慢离开，空气就会变得清新。

要么他们改变想法、重新关注未来，

要么他们离开，让剩下的人继续把事情做完。

因为——

这项事业还没有完成。

There have always been casinos in crypto.

The first viral application on Bitcoin was Satoshi Dice (2012). The first viral smart contract on Ethereum was King of the Ether Throne (2015), which was basically a hot potato ponzi scheme.

Once you have programmable money, the first thing people will do is gamble and play stupid games. It's human nature.

There's always been a hot casino in crypto. Always. The ICO casino, the DeFi food coin casinos, the NFT casinos, and now the memecoin casino. It evolves over time, but gambling is deeply ingrained in human nature. Literally as soon as humanity invented writing (ancient Sumeria in 3000 BC), there's records of people gambling.

The casino is shiny and gets a lot of attention on social media (it's where fortunes are quickly won and lost, and it's easy to convince yourself that this is your lucky break), but if you only pay attention to the shimmer of the casinos, you're missing the bigger story.

The story I originally got into this industry for, that sounded like sci-fi to me ten years ago—that crypto is a better substrate for finance, that it will forever alter the nature of money, and that the balance of power between individuals and governments will be permanently changed—that story is actually happening.

Bitcoin is challenging nation states. They are now buying it on their own balance sheets. Stablecoins are bending monetary policy. Central banks are scrambling to respond. Permissionless smart contracts like Uniswap and AAVE are now bigger and more valuable than unicorn fintechs. The world is warping around crypto.

Maybe it took longer than you thought, but transformative technologies almost always take longer to diffuse than you think. I thought generative AI would completely transform the job market within a couple years, but three years after ChatGPT, it still doesn't show up in GDP or employment stats.

It's hard to change the world. Takes work. The industrial revolution began with the commercialization of the steam engine in 1781, but even the industrial revolution didn't have any impact on productivity, employment, or wage growth until 1830—that's 50 years later. The Internet, as we all know, took 20+ years. Did you think we'd be displacing all of finance, the most regulated and governmentally sensitive industry in the world, in the span of just 5 years?

If you're despondent that you were working on a memecoin L2 or whatever and didn't get rich, take a deep fucking breath. This industry doesn't owe you that.

And yet, all this spiritual capitulation on the timeline, believe it or not, is healthy.

A forest only stays robust when it periodically sheds the deadwood. Without occasional fires to clear it out, decay spreads and the whole forest rots. It's a harsh reality, but the only way to keep growing is to clear out whatever's no longer contributing.

All this negativity on the timeline needs to flush out one way or another. Let people keep shuffling out, and the air will clear. Either these people must change their minds and refocus on the future, or they need to leave so the rest of us can do our jobs.

Because the job is not yet done.

ABAB AI 解读

真正的加密故事不是赌场，而是“人类货币主权的重新分配”，而这一切正在发生。

作者做了三件事：

承认赌场永远存在——这是人性，不是行业问题。

指出真正的变革已经在底层发生——比特币、稳定币、智能合约已进入国家级影响。

告诉离场的人：不是行业失败，而是你误判了周期与意义。

让我们拆开看。

一、人类一旦拥有“可编程的货币”，第一反应就是赌博

这是非常深刻的人性洞察。

作者列举了一系列事实：

比特币第一个爆火应用：Satoshi Dice（赌）
以太坊第一个爆火合约：King of the Ether Throne（庞氏）
之后是 ICO 赌场
DeFi 食物币赌场
NFT 赌场
现在是 meme casino

这句话的真正含义：赌场不是加密行业的问题，而是“人性 + 金融 + 编程”的必然产物。

就像：

股票有期权赌博
房地产有杠杆赌博
体育有博彩
古苏美尔三千年前就有人赌博
加密只是把赌博速度变快了、规模变大了。

很多人会抱怨：

“为什么加密世界这么多骗局？

为什么这么多人搞 meme？

为什么那么多人赌？”

答案是：这不是加密导致的，而是人性一贯如此。

因此：如果你只盯着赌场，你看到的永远是行业最表层的泡沫，而不是核心价值。

二、真正的加密故事正在发生，而且是“国家级别”的

这是全文最重要的部分。

作者说：

比特币正在挑战国家主权。

国家正在把它放进资产负债表。

这是巨变。

这意味着：

比特币从“叛逆资产” → “国家战略资产”
货币主权分散化
政府不能随便印钱不承担代价
全球价值存储从黄金迁移到数字资产

然后更关键的是：稳定币正在扭曲货币政策。

这是大多数人没意识到的巨大变化：

USDT/USDC 在全球流通
在许多国家，稳定币比当地货币更“可信”
人们选择美元，不必经过银行体系
货币政策的影响力正在被削弱

这是金融史上的第一次：人民主动用市场选择货币，而不是政府发货币。

接下来：“Uniswap 和 AAVE 比许多独角兽金融科技更大更值钱。”

这意味着：

开源代码跑在全球节点上
交易全球化，不需要许可
收费透明
无需银行中间商
不可关停

这是：软件第一次替代金融机构。

这是作者说 “世界正在随加密改变形状” 的原因。

三、科技革命从不按你想的速度发生，加密也一样

很多人“失望”，是因为：

没在 meme L2 上暴富
没在牛市顶卖掉
觉得行业进展不够快
感觉 Web3 没改变世界

作者的回答是：科技革命永远比你想的慢。

举的例子：

蒸汽机商业化到实际改变生产力 → 50 年
互联网改变全球经济 → 20–25 年
ChatGPT 爆发后 3 年 → GDP 和就业数据仍不动

为什么？因为：

改变世界很难，需要基础设施、制度、用户行为、文化习惯全面跟上。
加密要改变的是 “全球金融系统”，世界上最难改变的行业。
你不能要求它 5 年内就改造完毕。

四、“你做 meme coin 没发财不是行业的错”

这是一个非常扎心但极其现实的提醒。

“深呼吸一下。这个行业不欠你财富。”

这是反击“加密失败论”的一句最强话。

许多人离场，是因为：

投机失败
没暴富
觉得行业烂

但作者指出：

你失败的是投机，不是加密行业。
行业依然在前进、扩张、渗透、制度化。
是个人把注意力放在赌场，而不是技术革命。

五、清理情绪、清理噪音、清理投机者——这对行业是好事

作者说：森林必须定期清理枯木，否则整片森林都会腐烂。

这是生态学隐喻：

投机者（枯木）会导致行业腐败
负面情绪（腐朽）会污染氛围
周期性清洗（火）让生态更健康
活下来的人，会建设下一阶段

这段话的精髓：行业要继续成长，需要让失望者离场，让建设者留下。

这不是残酷，而是一个行业成熟的必经阶段。

六、ABAB AI 最终总结：加密不是赌场，加密是下一次货币与金融秩序的重构

赌场是现象。技术革命是本质。

你若看赌场，会觉得加密很蠢；

你若看国家、央行、稳定币、智能合约、全球金融体系结构变化——

你会明白作者为什么说：真正的故事正在发生，而且比我们以为的还要深刻。

一句话总结：

赌场是烟火，金融革命是地壳运动。

不要被烟火吸引忘了地壳正在移动。

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