The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that two oil tankers were damaged, halted, and caught fire after entering what it deems an "illegal route" in the Strait of Hormuz hours ago; this claim has not yet been fully verified by independent maritime agencies.

The Revolutionary Guard claimed that its navy had previously warned of mine risks in the relevant shipping lanes, but the involved vessels still followed U.S. arrangements, disbanded their crews, and allowed U.S. personnel to control the ships for passage. Iran also threatened to impose additional penalties on shipping companies that do not use its so-called "legal routes."

It is necessary to distinguish between two conflicting descriptions of events: Maritime security consultant Marisks previously reported that two very large crude oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf were struck by unidentified projectiles near Khasab, Oman; among them, the Saudi-operated Sidr was attacked, and the South Korean-operated Senegal Prosperity was reported to have been hit by three projectiles.

The Sidr incident has been confirmed to have resulted in the deaths of two Filipino crew members. Senegal Prosperity was reported to have been hit on the port side, engine room, and ballast tank, leading to communication disruptions; at the time, the crew was reported safe. These reports are inconsistent with the Revolutionary Guard's claim of "tankers hitting mines" in terms of the method of attack, the status of ship control, and the sequence of events.

The U.S. stated that it had previously targeted Iranian rocket launchers because these devices were preparing to lay mines in the strait; Iran then carried out retaliatory attacks and threatened to further "tighten" passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Both the U.S. and Iran claim to have the authority to explain the safety of the shipping lanes, while a senior U.S. commander stated that international shipping lanes have been opened after mine clearance.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is one of the most critical chokepoints for global crude oil and liquefied natural gas transportation. Any mining, missile attacks, crew evacuations, insurance refusals, or forced detours will make "the ability to safely leave the Gulf" a more direct market pricing variable than international oil prices.

In market mechanisms, shipowners, crude oil traders, refiners, and marine insurance underwriters are direct buyers of channel safety; tanker operators and cargo owners must reselect between halting operations, military escorts, rising war insurance premiums, detours, and delayed deliveries. Crude oil buyers will pay a higher premium for barrels that can be confirmed for loading, insured, and safely delivered, benefiting shipping, insurance, and alternative supply routes; oil-producing countries, refiners, and traders who cannot bear additional insurance or delay costs will be under pressure. The market has already reacted with a more than 2% increase in oil prices in a single day, but further price trends depend on actual shipping volumes, port loading, and whether military conflicts escalate.

Source: Public Information