这里有几点需要澄清: 1. 我的文章重点并不是“以太坊 = 亚马逊”。 它并不是一个商业模式对比,所以讨论亚马逊的盈利能力并不是重点。 2. 即便如此,亚马逊在其历史的大部分时间里利润都非常低,净利率大约只有 1–3%。对于一家科技公司来说,这是极低的,因此亚马逊当时被分析师大量批评。亚马逊当时市值超过 1500 亿美元,但净利润却只有约 1 亿美元。我从来没说“亚马逊不盈利”,我说的是 “亚马逊花了 22 年才让利润这条曲线明显向上”。这句话是事实。 确实,如果看收入和自由现金流(主要由 AWS 驱动),会看到更深层的增长飞轮。 但这恰恰就是我的观点——当时全球最顶尖的大公司都以利润为主要衡量指标,而亚马逊并不把利润放在首位,因为它追求的是指数级增长。 3. 撇开亚马逊的部分不谈,Santi 的核心观点是:L1(公链)不像亚马逊那样有护城河。 我完全不同意这一点。昨天我还和 @QwQiao 讨论这个问题,我认为有一个非常明确、几乎无可争辩的事实:L1 公链是有护城河的。 他声称 L1 公链具备以下问题: • 能吸引流动性……但留不住 ——证据呢? • 开源……有利创新,却对利润极其不利 ——证据呢? • 区块空间……本质上是商品化的 ——证据呢? • 用户……是雇佣兵式的(不忠诚) ——证据呢? 我没有看到这些论点的证据。 这些描述当然适用于 Blast 或其他已经消失的链,就像过去对亚马逊竞争对手也成立一样。 但它们显然不适用于 Ethereum 或 Solana—— 这两条链都已经证明自己能够留住流动性、创造有价值的区块空间、拥有黏性用户,同时仍然保持开源。 A few things here: 1. The point of my piece was not "Ethereum is Amazon." It was not a business model comparison, so debating Amazon's profitability is really not the point. 2. That said, Amazon had very small profit for most of its history, with net margins around 1-3%. These are extremely low for a tech company, which is why Amazon was criticized so much by analysts. Amazon was a $150B+ company while having ~$100M in net income. I did not say "Amazon was unprofitable," I said "it took 22 years for the [profit] line to go up." True, there was a deeper growth flywheel if you look at revenue and FCF (largely driven by AWS). But that's precisely the point—the biggest companies in the world traded on profit at that time, but Amazon wasn't focused on profit, because it was chasing the exponential. 3. Outside of the Amazon points, the core of Santi's claim is that unlike Amazon, L1s don't have moats. Totally disagree with this. Was debating the same question yesterday with @QwQiao, and I think it's really incontrovertible that L1s have moats. He claims L1s: * Attract liquidity… but can’t keep it - Evidence? * Open source… great for innovation, terrible for margins - Evidence? * Blockspace… structurally a commodity - Evidence? * Users… mercenary - Evidence? I don't see the evidence for this. Obviously these are true for Blast or for some other chain that fell off the face of the earth, just as it did for Amazon's competitors. But these do not appear to be true for Ethereum or Solana—both have managed to hold onto liquidity, create valuable blockspace, with sticky users, all while being open-source.

HaseebManaging partner, dragonfly_xyz

观点原文

这里有几点需要澄清:

  1. 我的文章重点并不是“以太坊 = 亚马逊”。

它并不是一个商业模式对比,所以讨论亚马逊的盈利能力并不是重点。

  1. 即便如此,亚马逊在其历史的大部分时间里利润都非常低,净利率大约只有 1–3%。对于一家科技公司来说,这是极低的,因此亚马逊当时被分析师大量批评。亚马逊当时市值超过 1500 亿美元,但净利润却只有约 1 亿美元。我从来没说“亚马逊不盈利”,我说的是 “亚马逊花了 22 年才让利润这条曲线明显向上”。这句话是事实。

确实,如果看收入和自由现金流(主要由 AWS 驱动),会看到更深层的增长飞轮。

但这恰恰就是我的观点——当时全球最顶尖的大公司都以利润为主要衡量指标,而亚马逊并不把利润放在首位,因为它追求的是指数级增长。

  1. 撇开亚马逊的部分不谈,Santi 的核心观点是:L1(公链)不像亚马逊那样有护城河。

我完全不同意这一点。昨天我还和 @QwQiao 讨论这个问题,我认为有一个非常明确、几乎无可争辩的事实:L1 公链是有护城河的。

他声称 L1 公链具备以下问题:

  • 能吸引流动性……但留不住

——证据呢?

  • 开源……有利创新,却对利润极其不利

——证据呢?

  • 区块空间……本质上是商品化的

——证据呢?

  • 用户……是雇佣兵式的(不忠诚)

——证据呢?

我没有看到这些论点的证据。

这些描述当然适用于 Blast 或其他已经消失的链,就像过去对亚马逊竞争对手也成立一样。

但它们显然不适用于 Ethereum 或 Solana——

这两条链都已经证明自己能够留住流动性、创造有价值的区块空间、拥有黏性用户,同时仍然保持开源。

A few things here:

  1. The point of my piece was not "Ethereum is Amazon." It was not a business model comparison, so debating Amazon's profitability is really not the point.
  2. That said, Amazon had very small profit for most of its history, with net margins around 1-3%. These are extremely low for a tech company, which is why Amazon was criticized so much by analysts. Amazon was a $150B+ company while having ~$100M in net income. I did not say "Amazon was unprofitable," I said "it took 22 years for the [profit] line to go up." True, there was a deeper growth flywheel if you look at revenue and FCF (largely driven by AWS). But that's precisely the point—the biggest companies in the world traded on profit at that time, but Amazon wasn't focused on profit, because it was chasing the exponential.
  3. Outside of the Amazon points, the core of Santi's claim is that unlike Amazon, L1s don't have moats.

Totally disagree with this. Was debating the same question yesterday with @QwQiao, and I think it's really incontrovertible that L1s have moats.

He claims L1s:

  • Attract liquidity… but can’t keep it
  • Evidence?
  • Open source… great for innovation, terrible for margins
  • Evidence?
  • Blockspace… structurally a commodity
  • Evidence?
  • Users… mercenary
  • Evidence?

I don't see the evidence for this. Obviously these are true for Blast or for some other chain that fell off the face of the earth, just as it did for Amazon's competitors. But these do not appear to be true for Ethereum or Solana—both have managed to hold onto liquidity, create valuable blockspace, with sticky users, all while being open-source.

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