Elon Musk stated that those who deem orbital AI unfeasible due to cooling issues lack the foundation to make such conclusions if they do not understand heat dissipation per unit area of heat sinks, coolant temperatures, and maximum GPU operating temperatures.

The core of orbital computing is not whether space is cold, but whether the waste heat generated by the computing load can be stably transferred from the GPU, HBM, network, and power components to the external heat sink via cold plates, thermal structures, or pumped liquid circuits, and radiated into space through infrared radiation. Vacuum eliminates convection but does not prevent conduction, heat pipes, and liquid cooling circuits from functioning inside the equipment.

The heat dissipation capacity of heat sinks mainly depends on effective radiative area, surface emissivity, and temperature, approximately following q=εσ(T4−Ts4). This means that an increase in heat sink temperature will raise the heat dissipation per unit area to the fourth power, allowing for a reduction in the required heat sink area; the trade-off is that the coolant, packaging, chip junction temperature, leakage, and long-term reliability face higher pressure.

Taking the NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72's configuration of about 136 kW as an example, an idealized calculation based on a 45°C liquid cooling supply temperature and 0.90 emissivity shows that a single-sided effective heat dissipation area of about 260 square meters is required; considering solar radiation, Earth's infrared, albedo, field of view, pollution, and lifespan decay, the actual design margin will continue to expand.

SpaceX and NVIDIA have disclosed the development of the space-optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 system, with Musk previously stating that the first batch of related AI satellites is targeted for launch in Q4 2027; reports mention a peak computing power of up to 250 kW, averaging about 175 kW, but the heat sink area, cooling circuit, and sustained peak load capacity have not yet been fully disclosed by SpaceX.

In market mechanisms, buyers of orbital AI are not merely purchasing GPU computing power, but are betting that solar power, launch capabilities, inter-satellite laser links, and thermal management can collectively reduce marginal computing costs for operators and capital. Beneficiaries include companies that master launch, satellite assembly, proprietary networks, and high-temperature heat dissipation materials; those under pressure are large data center projects relying on ground power grids, cooling water, land, and permitting expansion. Project value is determined by the quality of the heat sink, deployment reliability, hardware lifespan, network replenishment frequency, and unit effective computing cost, rather than the narrative of "natural cooling in space."

Source: Public Information