JPMorgan: Bitcoin May Outperform Gold
JPMorgan's analyst team released a report stating that if the currently high demand for Bitcoin ETFs cools down, the price support for Bitcoin in the future may exceed that of gold.
The report, led by JPMorgan Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, was published in the week of September 17 and continues the team's long-term analysis of the capital rotation relationship between Bitcoin and gold.
Specific data in the report shows that gold ETFs have recovered all the funds that flowed out earlier this year, while Bitcoin ETFs have only recovered about half of the outflow; both asset classes saw inflows after the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, but the recovery pace is clearly out of sync.
In terms of position structure comparison, the short position in the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is close to this year's high, and its ratio of put options to call options is also higher than that of the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD); in contrast, GLD's short position level is below the historical average. The report suggests that this comparison indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a more cautious position environment compared to gold, possibly due to stronger hedging demand.
Based on this, the report concludes that once hedging demand weakens, if the currently high short positions in Bitcoin see concentrated covering, it may provide relatively greater price support for Bitcoin compared to gold in the future.
It is noteworthy that this is not the first time the team has captured signals of capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold: in a report published on May 8, Panigirtzoglou's team pointed out that during the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin rose nearly 19%, while gold fell about 5%; during the same period, Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $1.32 billion and $2.44 billion in March and April respectively (with April being the strongest single month of the year), while gold ETFs saw over $3 billion outflow in March before recording $6.6 billion in recovery funds in April; at that time, the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold dropped to about 1.5 times, the lowest level in history, indicating that retail investors were turning to Bitcoin rather than gold as a "devaluation trade" tool.
From a market mechanism perspective, the current recovery of gold ETF funds is more sufficient, indicating that some funds still prefer gold as a more stable macro hedging tool; while the higher short and put option positions in Bitcoin ETFs reflect that market makers and institutional investors are still actively building hedging positions for its downside risks. If macro risk aversion sentiment eases and these hedging positions are gradually unwound, the corresponding short covering actions may bring incremental buying to Bitcoin, theoretically giving it greater price elasticity than gold, which has a looser position structure.
Source: Public Information
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JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has long tracked the capital rotation relationship between Bitcoin and gold, and this judgment is not an isolated view: as early as the May report, he clearly stated that "retail investors are using Bitcoin as an alternative to gold for devaluation trades," providing specific data support showing Bitcoin rose nearly 19% during the Iran conflict while gold fell about 5%. This indicates that his team consistently tracks the flow of "devaluation trade" funds as a core indicator system rather than a temporary market comment.
The core of this judgment's funding path lies in the ETF derivatives position structure: the short position in IBIT is approaching this year's high, and the proportion of put options is higher than that of GLD, indicating that market makers and institutional investors are still building hedging positions for Bitcoin's downside risks through the options market; once this hedging demand dissipates, the corresponding short covering will convert into actual buying, which is consistent with the funding path logic in the May report that "the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds outpaces the recovery speed of gold ETF funds," analyzing the price support strength from the derivatives and ETF position structure.
This judgment can be compared to gold's historical position as the "ultimate hedging tool against fiat currency devaluation" in traditional commodity markets—gold has long been viewed as the preferred asset for dealing with inflation and geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin is gradually vying for this narrative positioning; May data showed that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold dropped to about 1.5 times, the lowest level in history, indicating that the risk characteristics of the two assets are converging. The industry is currently in a transitional phase where Bitcoin's asset attributes are shifting from "high volatility speculative asset" to "macro hedging tool," rather than having completed the narrative switch to a mature stage.
From a structural perspective, this is essentially a transfer of pricing power: macro hedging funds have historically dominated the pricing weight of gold, but now the inflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs and the activity level of derivatives positions have reached a market depth that can rival gold. Once the hedging positions are unwound, leading to concentrated short covering in Bitcoin, it means that part of the "risk premium" pricing power originally embedded in gold will be redistributed to Bitcoin. This is a structural change in pricing power between assets, rather than a simple short-term price fluctuation.
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