One-sixth of gas stations in France face supply shortages, with Île-de-France and Normandy regions experiencing an 18% shortage rate
According to the latest statistics from France, as of September 21, 16% (about one-sixth) of the approximately 10,000 gas stations nationwide have run out of at least one type of fuel, an increase of 3 percentage points compared to the previous day (Sunday).
The shortage varies significantly between regions: the Loire region has an average shortage rate of about 20%, with the Indre-et-Loire department exceeding 25%; the Grand Est region has an average of about 19%, with local shortages in Bas-Rhin and Belfort reaching as high as 25% to 50%; the Central-Loire Valley, Île-de-France, and Normandy regions all have an 18% shortage; and the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region has about 17%.
On September 21, the price of unleaded ethanol gasoline (SP95-E10) exceeded €2.17 per liter, while diesel prices reached a historic high of €2.41 per liter. Both prices have remained above the peak levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis for over 10 days; for reference, the average diesel price in Europe during the same period is about €2.39 per liter, while Spain, with strong refining and import capabilities, has diesel prices at only about €1.83 per liter.
Supply pressures are mainly driven by geopolitical factors such as conflicts in Iran, the renewed situation in Yemen, and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, which have pushed global oil prices higher, compounded by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; some Russian refining facilities have been damaged by Ukrainian attacks, and Moscow has restricted diesel exports to ensure domestic supply, further tightening global diesel supply. Approximately 80% of diesel consumption in France relies on non-EU refinery supplies, and the gasoline self-sufficiency rate is only about 50%, limiting the ability to withstand external shocks.
The most concentrated shortages are occurring at gas stations owned by TotalEnergies: the company has capped the price of 95 gasoline at €1.99 per liter and diesel at €2.25 per liter, significantly lower than the general price of over €2.20 at other brands, leading many drivers to flock to Total gas stations, consuming fuel at a rate far exceeding the replenishment speed; statistics show that as of September 17, about 33% of Total's stores experienced shortages of 95 gasoline, and about 90% of all gas stations with shortages in France belong to the Total network.
From the perspective of supply and demand and competition, Total's low-price strategy essentially aims to capture customer flow through short-term discounts, but in the context of overall tight supply, artificially lowered retail prices have distorted the normal inventory turnover rhythm, converting national supply tightness into localized shortages concentrated within a single brand network; the beneficiaries are consumers who can refuel at lower prices in the short term, while the pressured parties are Total's own replenishment system and its competitors—who, although not experiencing large-scale shortages, also face public pressure for "de facto price increases." French President Macron has called for the government to "fully mobilize" to ensure fuel supply and price stability, and to promote fuel procurement from other supplying countries, seeking to relax refinery regulations at the EU level; Deputy Minister for Energy Maud Bregeon stated earlier (on September 16) that about 10% of gas stations face supply difficulties, with "the vast majority" concentrated in the Total network, denying that there are "abnormal difficulties" in the supply chain, while also stating that the government does not rule out introducing new measures.
The French government has previously extended the €70 million monthly fuel subsidy measure for two months (originally set to expire in August); of the €100 fuel subsidy vouchers issued to 3 million French citizens, 1.5 million have yet to be claimed; and the current shortage rate has rapidly climbed from 7% to 9% earlier this week to 16% within a few days.
Source: Public information
ABAB AI Insight
Fuel supply-induced national tension in France is not new—during a strike in 2022 by TotalEnergies refinery workers over wage disputes, up to one-third of gas stations across France faced supply shortages, causing long queues in many parts of Paris; similar situations occurred during pension reform protests in 2010 and labor law protests in 2016 when demonstrators blocked refineries. However, the structure of this crisis is clearly different—it is not caused by domestic strikes blocking refineries, but is compounded by two factors: first, real global supply shocks from attacks on energy facilities in Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, and damage to Russian refineries; second, Total's own proactive low-price strategy, making this crisis more a product of the resonance between corporate pricing decisions and geopolitical supply shocks rather than a simple labor-capital confrontation.
From the perspective of funding and resource pathways, Total's capping of 95 gasoline prices at €1.99, significantly below cost-reflective levels, is essentially a typical "loss-leader" strategy aimed at capturing customer flow and market share in competition; but in a period when global refined oil supply is already tightening, this artificially lowered price strategy equates to using its store network to subsidize the suppressed demand of the entire market, consuming fuel at a rate far exceeding its replenishment capacity, ultimately concentrating the national gap onto its own network. The French government's subsequent extension of the €70 million monthly subsidy and the €100 fuel vouchers is aimed at alleviating short-term costs for consumers, rather than addressing the deeper structural capacity gap where about 80% of diesel relies on non-EU refineries.
This model closely resembles classic cases in economics where price controls lead to shortages—such as the U.S. oil price controls in the 1970s that caused long queues at gas stations, and similar phenomena have repeatedly arisen from fuel subsidy policies in several emerging markets. In terms of industrial structure, Europe's refining capacity has been continuously shrinking in recent years, with several aging refineries shutting down, increasing Europe's dependence on imported refined oil, coinciding with geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war that weaken global refining capacity supply, making this wave of fuel shortages in France a specific reflection of the vulnerability of European energy security.
The underlying structural change is essentially a transfer of pricing power—in an environment of tightening global refined oil supply, whoever sets prices below the market clearing level effectively loses control over how much scarce resources they retain, as demand will flow unrestricted to the lowest price point, regardless of whether that point's actual delivery capacity can keep up. Total's attempt to use price as a tool to capture market share has backfired due to the tight supply environment—because in a state of scarcity, price itself is the core mechanism for rationing demand; once a supplier unilaterally suppresses this mechanism, it effectively attracts all the suppressed excess demand of the entire market onto itself.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
The lower the price set, the longer the queue.
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