历史是由弱者创造的 History was made by the underdogs
Tarek MansourCo-founder & CEO of Kalshi
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历史是由弱者创造的
History was made by the underdogs
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- 转 瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）谈预测市场： 我喜欢它们。它们很有意思，是聪明人用来对冲股票敞口的工具。 想象一下——等他了解到 RWA 永续合约（RWA perps） 和预测市场（PMs）在同一个投资组合中协同运作时，会怎么想。 Ray Dalio on Prediction Markets: > I like them. > They’re interesting vehicles for smart people to hedge equity exposure. Imagine when he learns about RWA perps and PMs working in tandem in the same portfolio.Tarek Mansour · 2025/12/22
- 今天，我们与 Cryptocom、Robinhood、Coinbase 以及 Underdog 一同正式发起成立了“预测市场联盟”（Coalition for Prediction Markets）@PredictAction 数以百万计的美国人已经成为预测市场的活跃用户——无论是亲自交易，还是从预测结果中获取信息。这些市场已发展为汇聚群体智慧的最强工具之一，并且在很多情况下持续跑赢传统民调。经济学家、新闻媒体（CNN、CNBC）、记者、政策制定者以及普通读者，如今都依赖预测市场，在嘈杂的公共舆论中获取高质量信号。 我们创建该联盟的目标很简单：为预测市场发声，对抗不利于行业的传统既得利益游说团体。同时，联盟也将维护支撑整个行业的透明度、市场完整性和消费者保护标准。未来几个月，预计还会有更多行业参与者加入。 为什么是现在？ 预测市场的年化交易量已超过 1500 亿美元，迅速成长为最重要的消费者级互联网应用之一。近几个月来，一些游说团体不断攻击预测市场，并散布关于其运作方式和监管情况的错误信息。 这就像当年银行游说集团攻击加密行业、声称“加密不安全”一样——针对预测市场的攻击并不是为了保护消费者，而是为了保护垄断地位，以及他们害怕失去的利润。 联盟将与政策制定者合作，向公众解释预测市场的运作机制，以及它们与赌场和博彩公司之间的本质区别。在预测市场中，不存在“庄家”，也不存在“你赢我就输的惩罚机制”。人们是在一个透明、竞争的环境中彼此交易，就像股票市场一样。 预测市场理应享有与任何现代金融市场同等的严格标准——清晰的规则和联邦层面的监管。保护消费者的最佳方式，是让这些市场继续接受联邦监管，并建立一致、明确的护栏。 继续前行。 Today we launched the Coalition for Prediction Markets @PredictAction alongside Cryptocom, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog. Millions of Americans have become active users of prediction markets, whether they trade or learn from the forecasts. These markets have emerged as the most powerful way to harness the wisdom of crowds and routinely outperform traditional polls. Economists, news networks (CNN, CNBC), journalists, policymakers, and passive readers now rely on them for high quality signal amongst the overwhelming noise of public discourse. We created the Coalition with a simple mission: provide a voice for prediction markets against adverse legacy lobbying groups. The Coalition will also protect the transparency, market integrity, and customer protection standards that underpin the industry. We expect more industry players to join over the next few months. Why now? With over 150B of annualized volume, prediction markets have quickly become one of the most important consumer internet applications. In recent months, lobby groups have attacked prediction markets and spread mis-information about how they work and how they’re regulated. Just like how the bank lobby attacked crypto claiming it's “not safe”: the attacks on prediction markets aren’t about protecting consumers, they're about protecting monopolies and the profits they fear losing. The Coalition will work with policymakers to educate the public about how prediction markets work and how they differ from casinos and sportsbooks. With prediction markets, there is no “house” and no penalty for winning. People trade in a transparent and competitive environment against each other, just like the stock market. Prediction markets deserve the same rigor as any modern financial market – clear rules and federal oversight. The best way to protect consumers is to keep these markets federally regulated, with consistent guardrails. Onwards.Tarek Mansour · 2025/12/12
- 今天是一个适合回顾我们走了多远的好日子。 照片：为了省钱，Luana 和我从旧金山坐在一辆卡车的后车厢一路颠到山景城的 Y Combinator 办公室。 Today is a good day to remember how far we've come. Picture: Luana and I riding in the back of a truck from SF to the Y Combinator office in Mountain View to save money.Tarek Mansour · 2025/12/04
- Kalshi 以 110 亿美元估值完成 10 亿美元融资。 十年前，只有几千个人知道什么是“预测市场”。 十八个月前，大多数预测市场都被禁了——直到我们击败了政府，让它们重新获得自由。 在过去的七年里，我们的社区开创了一个全新的品类。 今天，Kalshi 已经被数百万人信任、使用并喜爱。 它已经成为日常文化的一部分，并正在推动近代消费行为中最重要的一次转变。 现在，预测市场终于迎来了实现全部潜力的时刻，而我们也决心把这件事做到极致。 致所有信仰者和早期使用者：谢谢你们。 Kalshi raised $1B at an $11B valuation. A decade ago, only a few thousand people knew what a prediction market was. Eighteen months ago, most prediction markets were banned - until we overcame the government to set them free. Over the past seven years, our community has opened up an entirely new category. Today, Kalshi is trusted, used, and loved by millions of people. It’s a part of everyday culture, and it’s driving one of the most important shifts in consumer behavior in recent history. The time has finally come for prediction markets to achieve their full potential and we are intent on making that happen. To all the believers and the early adopters: thank you.Tarek Mansour · 2025/12/02