首页人物观点转我最近花了一些时间和一位多年的导师在一起，他是一位早已退休的 VC。我们聊了一会儿创业和风险投资，也聊了生活和家庭。出于“技术宅”的习惯，我还做了笔记。在征得他同意后（但他将保持匿名），想在年末把他的一些心得分享出来：关于 VC：我们都知道“幂律”的存在。但这里有一个反直觉的事实：小额退出有时比大额退出更赚钱。我们经常就是这样。入场价格、仓位大小、稀释程度、资金管理——这些都至关重要。我们曾经有一个 6 亿美元退出的项目，直接把基金回本；而另一个 40 亿美元退出的项目，甚至连基金的一半都没回。为什么？因为后者我们买得太贵，而且被严重稀释。但这里有个前提：这一策略只适用于小基金。我担心如今的创投文化变得太“交易化”了。每个人都像雇佣兵，合伙人随意跳槽，老牌机构募着夸张规模的资金，分拆出来的新基金层出不穷。顺便说一句，我并不怪他们——如果是今天的我，可能也会这么做。但看到老式“师徒制”培养模式的消亡，还是让人感到惋惜。有趣的是，最好的创始人和最糟糕的创始人，性格往往非常相似。他们都是你见过的最固执、最自负、最难合作的一类人。也许正因为如此，才会有那么多骗子拿到融资。这可能就是做这行的“成本”吧——就像“坦格利安家族的硬币翻转”（这个梗我后来查了才明白）。做风投有很多赚钱的方式，但最稳定的一种始终是：在早期发现一个非共识的机会，然后把基金里很大一部分资金押上去。这套方法过去有效，现在有效，将来也会有效。但代价是：大多数时候，你的同行会觉得你疯了或很蠢，而且在大多数时候，他们也确实是对的。你只需要在每一期基金里，真正对那么一两次就够了。关于生活：你只有一个身体，一定要好好照顾。我余生都会有一些疼痛，也不会活到本该活到的年纪，因为我当年没有重视。多吃蔬菜，每天锻炼，保证睡眠，定期体检。年轻的时候你会觉得自己刀枪不入，但问题往往是在不知不觉中慢慢出现的。如果某个人一直让你痛苦，把他/她从你的生活中剔除掉。人生太短了。不管是糟糕的老板、合伙人、室友，还是其他任何人——如果你一想到他们就感到愤怒或恐惧，那就离开。不要试图改变他们，也不要和他们对抗，直接走开就好。我的妻子在 Instagram 上给我看了一个东西，让我很久以来第一次哭了出来。它叫 “32 for a day”。那是我见过的终极人生课程。 I recently spent time with a longtime mentor of mine, a long retired VC. We talked about startups and VC for a bit. We also talked about life and family. Being a dork, I took notes. With his permission (though he’ll remain anonymous), wanted to share some of his learnings as we end the year: On VC: - We all know the power law. But here’s something counterintuitive: you can make more money from smaller exits than larger ones. We often did. Entry price, position sizing, dilution and capital management. They all matter. We had a fund returner from a $600M exit and a $4B exit that didn’t even return half the fund. Why? We overpaid for the latter, and got diluted to hell. But here's the catch: this only works for small funds. - I worry the culture of venture has become too transactional. Everyone’s a mercenary. Partners switching firms on a whim. Established firms raising obscene amounts of money. Spin outs launching all the time. I don’t blame them by the way. I would probably do the same today. But it’s sad to see the death of the old apprenticeship model. - It’s funny how the best and worst founders have very similar personalities. They are the most stubborn, arrogant people you’ll ever meet and a pain in the ass to work with. Maybe that’s why so many frauds get funded. Just a cost of doing business. Like a Targaryen coin flip (I didn’t get this reference until I looked it up later). - There are many ways to make money in venture. But the most consistent is to find something non-consensus early on, and pile a big chunk of your fund into it. That's always worked. And it always will. But that means most of the time your peers will think you're crazy or stupid. And most of the time they will be right. You just have to be really right once or twice in each fund. On life: - You only get one body. Take care of it. I'll have some pain for the rest of my life, and I won't live as long as I should because I didn't. Eat your vegetables. Exercise every day. Get some sleep. Get your physicals. When you're young you think you're invincible. But issues can creep up. - If someone is causing you grief all the time, cut them out. Life's too short. A horrible boss, partner, roommate, whatever. If you feel angry or scared every time you think of them, cut them out. Don't try to change them, don't fight them. Just walk away. - My wife showed me something on Instagram that made me cry for the first time in a long time. It's called "32 for a day". It's the ultimate life lesson.

转我最近花了一些时间和一位多年的导师在一起，他是一位早已退休的 VC。我们聊了一会儿创业和风险投资，也聊了生活和家庭。出于“技术宅”的习惯，我还做了笔记。在征得他同意后（但他将保持匿名），想在年末把他的一些心得分享出来：关于 VC：我们都知道“幂律”的存在。但这里有一个反直觉的事实：小额退出有时比大额退出更赚钱。我们经常就是这样。入场价格、仓位大小、稀释程度、资金管理——这些都至关重要。我们曾经有一个 6 亿美元退出的项目，直接把基金回本；而另一个 40 亿美元退出的项目，甚至连基金的一半都没回。为什么？因为后者我们买得太贵，而且被严重稀释。但这里有个前提：这一策略只适用于小基金。我担心如今的创投文化变得太“交易化”了。每个人都像雇佣兵，合伙人随意跳槽，老牌机构募着夸张规模的资金，分拆出来的新基金层出不穷。顺便说一句，我并不怪他们——如果是今天的我，可能也会这么做。但看到老式“师徒制”培养模式的消亡，还是让人感到惋惜。有趣的是，最好的创始人和最糟糕的创始人，性格往往非常相似。他们都是你见过的最固执、最自负、最难合作的一类人。也许正因为如此，才会有那么多骗子拿到融资。这可能就是做这行的“成本”吧——就像“坦格利安家族的硬币翻转”（这个梗我后来查了才明白）。做风投有很多赚钱的方式，但最稳定的一种始终是：在早期发现一个非共识的机会，然后把基金里很大一部分资金押上去。这套方法过去有效，现在有效，将来也会有效。但代价是：大多数时候，你的同行会觉得你疯了或很蠢，而且在大多数时候，他们也确实是对的。你只需要在每一期基金里，真正对那么一两次就够了。关于生活：你只有一个身体，一定要好好照顾。我余生都会有一些疼痛，也不会活到本该活到的年纪，因为我当年没有重视。多吃蔬菜，每天锻炼，保证睡眠，定期体检。年轻的时候你会觉得自己刀枪不入，但问题往往是在不知不觉中慢慢出现的。如果某个人一直让你痛苦，把他/她从你的生活中剔除掉。人生太短了。不管是糟糕的老板、合伙人、室友，还是其他任何人——如果你一想到他们就感到愤怒或恐惧，那就离开。不要试图改变他们，也不要和他们对抗，直接走开就好。我的妻子在 Instagram 上给我看了一个东西，让我很久以来第一次哭了出来。它叫 “32 for a day”。那是我见过的终极人生课程。 I recently spent time with a longtime mentor of mine, a long retired VC. We talked about startups and VC for a bit. We also talked about life and family. Being a dork, I took notes. With his permission (though he’ll remain anonymous), wanted to share some of his learnings as we end the year: On VC: - We all know the power law. But here’s something counterintuitive: you can make more money from smaller exits than larger ones. We often did. Entry price, position sizing, dilution and capital management. They all matter. We had a fund returner from a $600M exit and a $4B exit that didn’t even return half the fund. Why? We overpaid for the latter, and got diluted to hell. But here's the catch: this only works for small funds. - I worry the culture of venture has become too transactional. Everyone’s a mercenary. Partners switching firms on a whim. Established firms raising obscene amounts of money. Spin outs launching all the time. I don’t blame them by the way. I would probably do the same today. But it’s sad to see the death of the old apprenticeship model. - It’s funny how the best and worst founders have very similar personalities. They are the most stubborn, arrogant people you’ll ever meet and a pain in the ass to work with. Maybe that’s why so many frauds get funded. Just a cost of doing business. Like a Targaryen coin flip (I didn’t get this reference until I looked it up later). - There are many ways to make money in venture. But the most consistent is to find something non-consensus early on, and pile a big chunk of your fund into it. That's always worked. And it always will. But that means most of the time your peers will think you're crazy or stupid. And most of the time they will be right. You just have to be really right once or twice in each fund. On life: - You only get one body. Take care of it. I'll have some pain for the rest of my life, and I won't live as long as I should because I didn't. Eat your vegetables. Exercise every day. Get some sleep. Get your physicals. When you're young you think you're invincible. But issues can creep up. - If someone is causing you grief all the time, cut them out. Life's too short. A horrible boss, partner, roommate, whatever. If you feel angry or scared every time you think of them, cut them out. Don't try to change them, don't fight them. Just walk away. - My wife showed me something on Instagram that made me cry for the first time in a long time. It's called "32 for a day". It's the ultimate life lesson.

Brian HalliganCo-founder HubSpot, Sequoia

2025/12/30 02:32 UTC

观点原文

转我最近花了一些时间和一位多年的导师在一起，他是一位早已退休的 VC。我们聊了一会儿创业和风险投资，也聊了生活和家庭。出于“技术宅”的习惯，我还做了笔记。在征得他同意后（但他将保持匿名），想在年末把他的一些心得分享出来：

关于 VC：

我们都知道“幂律”的存在。但这里有一个反直觉的事实：小额退出有时比大额退出更赚钱。我们经常就是这样。入场价格、仓位大小、稀释程度、资金管理——这些都至关重要。我们曾经有一个 6 亿美元退出的项目，直接把基金回本；而另一个 40 亿美元退出的项目，甚至连基金的一半都没回。为什么？因为后者我们买得太贵，而且被严重稀释。但这里有个前提：这一策略只适用于小基金。

我担心如今的创投文化变得太“交易化”了。每个人都像雇佣兵，合伙人随意跳槽，老牌机构募着夸张规模的资金，分拆出来的新基金层出不穷。顺便说一句，我并不怪他们——如果是今天的我，可能也会这么做。但看到老式“师徒制”培养模式的消亡，还是让人感到惋惜。

有趣的是，最好的创始人和最糟糕的创始人，性格往往非常相似。他们都是你见过的最固执、最自负、最难合作的一类人。也许正因为如此，才会有那么多骗子拿到融资。这可能就是做这行的“成本”吧——就像“坦格利安家族的硬币翻转”（这个梗我后来查了才明白）。

做风投有很多赚钱的方式，但最稳定的一种始终是：在早期发现一个非共识的机会，然后把基金里很大一部分资金押上去。这套方法过去有效，现在有效，将来也会有效。但代价是：大多数时候，你的同行会觉得你疯了或很蠢，而且在大多数时候，他们也确实是对的。你只需要在每一期基金里，真正对那么一两次就够了。

关于生活：

你只有一个身体，一定要好好照顾。我余生都会有一些疼痛，也不会活到本该活到的年纪，因为我当年没有重视。多吃蔬菜，每天锻炼，保证睡眠，定期体检。年轻的时候你会觉得自己刀枪不入，但问题往往是在不知不觉中慢慢出现的。

如果某个人一直让你痛苦，把他/她从你的生活中剔除掉。人生太短了。不管是糟糕的老板、合伙人、室友，还是其他任何人——如果你一想到他们就感到愤怒或恐惧，那就离开。不要试图改变他们，也不要和他们对抗，直接走开就好。

我的妻子在 Instagram 上给我看了一个东西，让我很久以来第一次哭了出来。它叫 “32 for a day”。那是我见过的终极人生课程。

I recently spent time with a longtime mentor of mine, a long retired VC. We talked about startups and VC for a bit. We also talked about life and family. Being a dork, I took notes. With his permission (though he’ll remain anonymous), wanted to share some of his learnings as we end the year:

On VC:

We all know the power law. But here’s something counterintuitive: you can make more money from smaller exits than larger ones. We often did. Entry price, position sizing, dilution and capital management. They all matter. We had a fund returner from a $600M exit and a $4B exit that didn’t even return half the fund. Why? We overpaid for the latter, and got diluted to hell. But here's the catch: this only works for small funds.

I worry the culture of venture has become too transactional. Everyone’s a mercenary. Partners switching firms on a whim. Established firms raising obscene amounts of money. Spin outs launching all the time. I don’t blame them by the way. I would probably do the same today. But it’s sad to see the death of the old apprenticeship model.

It’s funny how the best and worst founders have very similar personalities. They are the most stubborn, arrogant people you’ll ever meet and a pain in the ass to work with. Maybe that’s why so many frauds get funded. Just a cost of doing business. Like a Targaryen coin flip (I didn’t get this reference until I looked it up later).

There are many ways to make money in venture. But the most consistent is to find something non-consensus early on, and pile a big chunk of your fund into it. That's always worked. And it always will. But that means most of the time your peers will think you're crazy or stupid. And most of the time they will be right. You just have to be really right once or twice in each fund.

On life:

You only get one body. Take care of it. I'll have some pain for the rest of my life, and I won't live as long as I should because I didn't. Eat your vegetables. Exercise every day. Get some sleep. Get your physicals. When you're young you think you're invincible. But issues can creep up.

If someone is causing you grief all the time, cut them out. Life's too short. A horrible boss, partner, roommate, whatever. If you feel angry or scared every time you think of them, cut them out. Don't try to change them, don't fight them. Just walk away.

My wife showed me something on Instagram that made me cry for the first time in a long time. It's called "32 for a day". It's the ultimate life lesson.

ABAB AI 解读

这段文字信息密度极高，而且它不是“经验分享”，而是一位老派 VC 在临近人生下半场时，对风险、激励、身体、关系做出的最终结论版总结。我从资本真相 → 组织退化 → 人性成本 → 个人生存策略四个最高层级给你解读。

一、关于 VC：他讲的不是技巧，而是风投的真实数学

第一条看似反直觉，但极其重要：小退出，可能比大退出更赚钱

这句话直接击穿了外行对 VC 的最大误解。

真实原因只有四个变量：

入场价格（你买得贵不贵）
仓位大小（你敢不敢下重注）
稀释程度（后续融资你还能剩多少）
基金规模（你到底需要多大的回报）

👉 在小基金中，一个 $600M 的退出，只要：

早进
仓位够大
稀释控制得好
就能直接“基金回本”。

而一个 $4B 的退出：

晚进
高估值
多轮融资后被稀释
反而可能是灾难。

这不是案例问题，是数学问题。

二、为什么这套逻辑“只对小基金有效”

这是他刻意点出来的重点。

大基金 → 需要 $10B+ 级别结果
小基金 → 只需要极少数非线性成功

所以：基金规模一旦膨胀，投资自由度就会死亡。

这也是为什么老派 VC 越来越少，新派 VC 越来越“像资产管理”。

三、VC 文化变“雇佣兵化”的根本原因

他说“我不怪他们”，这句话非常成熟。

因为这是制度必然结果：

管理费稳定
跳槽无成本
声誉可以转移
回报周期太长，个人激励太短

👉 结果就是：风投从“长期共建关系”，退化成“短期金融交易”。

而“师徒制”的消亡，本质是：知识传承不再有经济激励。

四、为什么“最好和最坏的创始人很像”

这句话是整个 VC 行业的隐秘真相。

共同点是什么？

极度自信
高度固执
对规则不耐烦
强烈个人叙事

这些特质：

在正确方向上 → 改变世界
在错误方向上 → 灾难与欺诈

这就是他提到的 “坦格利安硬币”：每个疯狂的天才，和疯狂的骗子，只差一次现实检验。

而 VC 接受这一点，是因为：这是创新的结构性成本，不是道德失败。

五、最重要的 VC 原则：非共识 + 重仓

这一条是风投行业唯一不变的铁律：非共识早期 + 大仓位

你只需要：每一期基金、对 1–2 次

但代价是：长期被同行否定、多数时间显得愚蠢、心理压力极大

👉 这是为什么真正的顶级 VC 极少，不是因为聪明，而是因为：他们能承受长期“看起来是错的”。

六、关于生活：他在讲 VC 的反面

你会发现，他的人生建议，与 VC 投资原则完全相反。

在投资中：

承受极端波动
忍受不确定性
接受失败概率

在生活中：

不要赌身体
不要赌关系
不要赌“我能改变对方”

这是一种用一生换来的反向智慧。

七、身体那一段，是“不可逆成本”的提醒

他说的不是养生，而是经济学：

身体损耗 = 无法对冲、无法回撤、无法重来

年轻时你以为：

可以透支
可以补救
可以等以后

但现实是：这是唯一一个没有二级市场的资产。

八、关于“切断关系”，这是顶级理性

这一条非常冷静：不吵、不改、不纠缠，直接走开。

因为：

改变他人 ≈ 0
持续消耗 ≈ 必然
退出成本 ≈ 随时间指数级上升

这是情绪管理的终极版本。

九、“32 for a day”的真正含义

他没有解释，但含义非常重：如果你只能再活一天，你会怎么分配注意力？

这是所有人生决策的终极校准器。

十、一句话的最高层总结

这位老 VC 的全部智慧，可以压缩成一句话：

在资本世界，你要敢于重仓非共识；

在现实人生，你要极端保守地保护身体与关系。

前者靠勇气赚钱，后者靠克制活得久。

站在亿万富翁 + 历史视角的最终判断

大多数人失败，不是因为不努力，而是：

在该激进的地方太保守
在该保守的地方太激进

这段话，正是在教你如何把这两件事放回正确的位置。