这种进化周期不仅存在于人类个体之间,也存在于国家、公司、经济体系——乃至一切事物之中。从整体来看,它具有自我纠正的特性,但这种纠正未必对其各个部分都温和。 举例来说: 当一个市场中供给过剩、浪费严重时,价格就会下跌,企业破产,产能被迫收缩,直到供需重新回到平衡点; 此时,周期便会开始向相反方向运行。同样地,当一个经济体衰退到一定程度,掌权者就不得不推动政治和政策改革,否则他们将被淘汰,为新的接班者让路。这些循环永不停歇,按照逻辑的方式不断上演——而且往往具有自我强化的特征。 关键在于:要快速地失败、学习并改进。如果你不断学习和提升,你的进化曲线就会像那条向上攀升的轨迹;如果做得不好,它就会像那条向下坠落的曲线,甚至更糟。 —— #今日原则 This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything. And it is naturally self-correcting as a whole, though not necessarily for its parts. For example, if there is too much supply and waste in a market, prices will go down, companies will go out of business, and capacity will be reduced until the supply falls in line with the demand, at which time the cycle will start to move in the opposite direction. Similarly, if an economy turns bad enough, those responsible for running it will make the political and policy changes that are needed—or they will not survive, making room for their replacements to come along. These cycles are continuous and play out in logical ways—and they tend to be self-reinforcing. The key is to fail, learn, and improve quickly. If you’re constantly learning and improving, your evolutionary process will look like the one that’s ascending. Do it poorly and it will look like what you see on the left, or worse. #principleoftheday

Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates

观点原文

这种进化周期不仅存在于人类个体之间,也存在于国家、公司、经济体系——乃至一切事物之中。从整体来看,它具有自我纠正的特性,但这种纠正未必对其各个部分都温和。

举例来说:

当一个市场中供给过剩、浪费严重时,价格就会下跌,企业破产,产能被迫收缩,直到供需重新回到平衡点;

此时,周期便会开始向相反方向运行。同样地,当一个经济体衰退到一定程度,掌权者就不得不推动政治和政策改革,否则他们将被淘汰,为新的接班者让路。这些循环永不停歇,按照逻辑的方式不断上演——而且往往具有自我强化的特征。

关键在于:要快速地失败、学习并改进。如果你不断学习和提升,你的进化曲线就会像那条向上攀升的轨迹;如果做得不好,它就会像那条向下坠落的曲线,甚至更糟。

—— #今日原则

This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything. And it is naturally self-correcting as a whole, though not necessarily for its parts. For example, if there is too much supply and waste in a market, prices will go down, companies will go out of business, and capacity will be reduced until the supply falls in line with the demand, at which time the cycle will start to move in the opposite direction. Similarly, if an economy turns bad enough, those responsible for running it will make the political and policy changes that are needed—or they will not survive, making room for their replacements to come along. These cycles are continuous and play out in logical ways—and they tend to be self-reinforcing.

The key is to fail, learn, and improve quickly. If you’re constantly learning and improving, your evolutionary process will look like the one that’s ascending. Do it poorly and it will look like what you see on the left, or worse. #principleoftheday

Founder

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