Dragonfly Partner Hosseeb: Speculative Frenzy Drives Financial Revolution
Dragonfly partner Hosseeb pointed out that historically, no financial revolution has occurred without speculative frenzy. The current field of artificial intelligence is reproducing this pattern, while the cryptocurrency industry has experienced similar processes multiple times.
He emphasized that the true explanation for speculative behavior lies in human nature and the tendency of people to believe in and cash in on future expectations. All past bubbles in the cryptocurrency field have been proven correct in hindsight, as no one anticipated the rapid expansion of cryptocurrency beyond the scale imagined at the time.
Hosseeb believes that speculative frenzy provides initial capital and attention for new technologies and financial infrastructures by pricing future possibilities in advance, allowing the market to quickly validate or eliminate what were once distant possibilities. This mechanism has repeatedly appeared in the path of cryptocurrency from early concepts to global infrastructure, and artificial intelligence is currently entering a similar stage.
Although the cryptocurrency bubble has been accompanied by severe volatility and numerous failed projects, the overall direction has always pointed towards the penetration of cryptocurrency technology into more economic fields, far exceeding conservative predictions at the time. Hosseeb attributes this to humanity's continuous investment in future narratives rather than mere rational calculations.
The current investment boom in artificial intelligence is similar to the historical path of cryptocurrency, driven by the advance pricing of future dominance, with funds and talent concentrating in areas with strong narratives, while filtering out projects that can truly scale.
Speculators buy high-valuation narrative assets early on, followed by institutions and actual application parties entering after the frenzy subsides; funds flow from traditional assets to emerging technologies, benefiting early narrative holders and platforms, while over-leveraged and fundamentally weak projects come under pressure, with events driven by human behavior rather than single fundamental changes.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
As an early investor in the cryptocurrency field, Dragonfly has long participated in multiple rounds of expansion from the Bitcoin cycle to DeFi, NFTs, and infrastructure. Hosseeb has repeatedly compared the cryptocurrency bubble to historical technological revolutions such as the internet and railroads in public forums, emphasizing the correctness of post-event validation rather than the rationality of the bubble itself.
In terms of capital flow, speculative frenzy injects dispersed individual and institutional funds into immature technology stacks ahead of time, allowing developers, exchanges, and application layers to gain resources for survival and expansion before fundamentals are fully validated; the motivation is to seize future infrastructure pricing power rather than waiting for linear growth.
Similar cases include the internet bubble of the 1990s, where many companies' valuations deviated from reality, but the scale of fiber optics, browsers, and e-commerce infrastructure ultimately far exceeded expectations during the bubble peak; currently, artificial intelligence is in a similar early expansion phase, while cryptocurrency has entered a stage of continuous penetration after multiple rounds of bubbles.
Essentially, this is about capital concentration: speculative behavior discounts future expectations into current liquidity, accelerating the aggregation of resources towards a few high-narrative intensity directions, while filtering through the elimination of failed projects. The mechanism is humanity's early betting on a nonlinear future rather than being driven by linear fundamentals.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
No frenzy, no revolution; bubbles are tools for pricing the future.
The direction that is correct in hindsight is inevitably underestimated beforehand.
Humans are willing to cash in on the future early, and capital flows accordingly.