Internal presentation documents from OpenAI indicate that the cumulative negative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030 is expected to reach $278 billion. Revenue is projected to rise from $36 billion this year to $350 billion by 2030, with a total revenue of about $840 billion over five years, which still does not cover expenses.

Computing power and infrastructure are the largest single items, with cumulative expenditures expected to be around $856 billion during the same period. The document originates from a non-public presentation related to computing power transactions in July. The company completed a $122 billion financing round in March, with a valuation of $852 billion; at the current consumption rate, this money is expected to run out by 2028. The latest figures have narrowed compared to the previous forecast of about $305 billion in negative cash flow in May.

A new round of financing has entered early discussions. Some investors are approaching at a valuation of about $1.2 trillion, approximately 41% higher than the March valuation, with the scale and final pricing still variable. This round in March was anchored by commitments from Amazon of up to $50 billion, Nvidia and SoftBank each at $30 billion, etc., with $35 billion from Amazon contingent on an IPO or reaching its defined AGI milestone; an additional approximately $3 billion came from individual investors through bank channels. OpenAI declined to comment to the Financial Times.

The IPO timeline has been pushed back. The company originally planned to advance this fall, having submitted confidential filing materials in June, but CEO Sam Altman later stated that there would be no IPO this year, citing safety concerns. During the same period, the company lowered prices to capture market share, with competitors including Anthropic and lower-cost open-source weight models. Cloud and chip contracts are still being increased, with the funding gap directly cited as a reason for the next round of private equity.

Who is buying and who is selling: Buyers are sovereign capital, cloud vendors, and chip manufacturers willing to lock in model distribution rights at a trillion-dollar valuation; sellers are computing power, cabinets, and electricity for the next five years. The event-driven aspect comes from the competition for training and inference capacity, not current profits. Funds are flowing from equity financing to suppliers like Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, and CoreWeave. Beneficiaries are infrastructure providers with long-term contracts, while OpenAI's balance sheet, which must refinance before 2028, and public shareholders who would take on the cash burn curve if listed, are under pressure.

Public reports have not provided a breakdown of free cash flow by year, nor disclosed the subscription amount for the $1.2 trillion round; verifiable figures include $278 billion, $856 billion, $122 billion, and $852 billion from internal planning, as well as the postponement of the IPO from this fall.

Source: Public Information