JPMorgan's latest research report predicts that Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing (robotaxi) business could generate revenue of $320 billion by 2035, with nearly all income coming from Tesla's own fleet rather than the previously expected "owner-sharing revenue" model.

The breakdown shows that approximately $314 billion of the $320 billion revenue will come from Tesla's own fleet, while only about $5 billion will come from the "Tesla network" (tesla network) where owners affiliate their vehicles, meaning that the widely circulated story of "owners earning passive income by listing their vehicles" is largely invalidated in this report.

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta describes this shift as Tesla moving from a "light-asset software platform" to a "heavy-asset ride-hailing operator," with a business model more akin to a "scaled-up Waymo" rather than the initially envisioned "ride-hailing version of a sharing platform."

Supporting data shows that as of now, Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) software has accumulated about 10 billion miles of driving data from approximately 9 million Tesla vehicles worldwide; in the second quarter of this year, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million, a year-on-year increase of 56%; robotaxi services are operational in seven major metropolitan areas in the U.S., and the Cybercab from the Texas Gigafactory has entered mass production, with capital expenditures expected to exceed $25 billion in 2026, mainly for fleet expansion.

This report also ends JPMorgan's bearish stance that lasted for eight years. Since 2018, analyst Ryan Brinkman maintained a "underweight" rating; just this April, Brinkman issued a "60% drop" warning due to Tesla's record global unsold inventory of 164,000 vehicles and first-quarter deliveries of 358,000 being below expectations, with a target price of only $145. After Gupta took over coverage in June, the rating was upgraded from "underweight" to "neutral," and the target price was raised by 227% to $475 (for December 2027).

Despite the significant target price increase, Tesla's stock price has actually fallen about 18.74% this year, with the second-quarter operating profit margin compressed to 1.4%, and free cash flow turning negative to -$1.09 billion. JPMorgan's own model acknowledges that Tesla's free cash flow will not turn positive until 2029, and earnings per share will not reach $7.5 until 2030, with the profitability inflection point expected to appear in 2028. In other words, institutions are currently pricing the stock based on the potential future revenue from robotaxi and humanoid robot Optimus, rather than current financial performance—Tesla's forward P/E ratio is as high as 152 times, while Wall Street's consensus expectation for its 2026 earnings per share has been downgraded from $2.11 to $1.77 within two months, widening the gap between valuation and fundamentals.

JPMorgan also provided mid-term figures: Tesla's total revenue is expected to grow from $95 billion in 2025 to $203 billion in 2030, with about half of the increase coming from robotaxi, Optimus sales, and FSD licensing services; analysts compare Tesla's moat to Amazon's AWS-style vertical integration advantage, believing that synchronously testing and mass-producing Optimus with existing factories can reduce manufacturing costs and validate product feasibility.

Source: Public Information