JPMorgan's latest research predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, global OECD commercial crude oil inventories will reach operational limits in September, potentially causing widespread refinery shutdowns due to raw material supply disruptions.

The JPMorgan analyst team, led by Natasha Kaneva, estimates that while global crude oil inventories are as high as 8.4 billion barrels, only about 800 million barrels are truly usable as "operational buffers"; as of April 23, approximately 280 million barrels of this buffer have been consumed, leaving about 500 million barrels available.

OECD commercial crude oil inventories have decreased from 2.8 billion barrels in February to the current 2.72 billion barrels, and JPMorgan expects this to further drop to about 1.6 billion barrels in September, equivalent to only 35 days of demand coverage, nearing the minimum level required to maintain the normal operation of the global refining system.

The report likens this critical point to "low blood pressure" in the human body— the system does not collapse due to complete depletion of crude oil, but rather due to reduced pipeline pressure, deteriorating port loading and unloading efficiency, and refineries being unable to timely obtain raw materials, leading to various segments "suffering from lack of blood" and halting operations.

The supply gap stems from a reduction of about 10 million barrels per day in the Middle East and disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea have coordinated the release of strategic reserves to offset the gap, but the rate of buffer consumption is still accelerating, with commercial inventories declining by about 2.2 million barrels per day.

From a market mechanism perspective, once inventories breach operational limits, prices will replace inventory adjustments as the main balancing mechanism, meaning that the demand side will be passively "rationed" through higher oil prices rather than relying on restocking to absorb shocks; this will benefit those holding long positions in crude oil futures and independent refineries with scarce refining capacity, but will directly impact downstream refining enterprises that rely on stable raw material supplies.

JPMorgan assesses that the Strait of Hormuz "will reopen before September, no matter what," not based on political optimism, but on the realistic calculation that supply must be restored before system collapse—otherwise, the world will face an unprecedented energy crisis and even economic recession.

Source: Public Information