The U.S. blockade has reduced Iran's oil exports to nearly zero.

Former U.S. Treasury official Miad Maleki stated that after the U.S. resumed its maritime blockade, Iran's oil exports have approached zero, with recent satellite images of the Kharg Island export hub showing almost no activity.

Maleki expects that if exports continue to be obstructed, the financial impact on Iran will transmit to the military, security sectors, government employees, and elite groups within the next two to three months, significantly increasing the pressure on the regime to maintain payments and resource allocation. This assessment is his personal analysis and not an official prediction from the U.S. government.

The U.S. Treasury previously stated that Iran's average crude oil loading has dropped from about 1.8 million barrels per day before the conflict to less than 500,000 barrels; this figure clearly shows a significant pressure on exports, but there are differences in statistical criteria and observation timing compared to the latest claim of "near zero."

Maleki noted that about 60% of the Iranian government's payment funds rely on oil exports, covering periodic salaries for military, police, security agencies, public sector, and industrial employees; the financial gap will become apparent when the next round of payments is due after the export interruption.

The U.S. Treasury's "Economic Fury" operation simultaneously targets Iran's oil trade, shadow banking networks, arms procurement, cryptocurrency assets, and sanctions evasion infrastructure. The Treasury stated that as of July 29, it has sanctioned over 100 vessels associated with Iran's shadow fleet by 2026 and blocked hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue used by the Iranian regime and its agents.

Iran may still delay the impact through inventory consumption, discounted sales, ship-to-ship transfers, shadow fleets, third-party trade networks, and informal settlements; thus, a sharp decline in exports does not equate to an immediate zero in oil revenue, fiscal payments, or regime stability. Public reports have not provided independent and verifiable recent total export data.

From a market mechanism perspective, the U.S. maritime blockade and sanctions increase compliance and interception risks for carriers, insurers, traders, and settlement banks. As buyers reduce their acceptance of shipments, Iranian crude oil shifts from regular exports to high-discount, long-chain evasion transactions. Beneficiaries include alternative Middle Eastern crude oil suppliers and compliant transport and security service providers; the pressured parties are Iran's finances, the security system reliant on oil cash flow, and intermediaries bearing sanction risks. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, the geopolitical risk premium for global crude oil will also rise.

Source: Public information