Vlad Tenev, Chairman and CEO of Robinhood, stated that crypto-related event contracts have occupied a disproportionate share in the company's prediction market, and he expects that sports contracts will become a minority in the coming years, similar to overall active trading.

Tenev referred to sports contracts as an entry point for customer acquisition, liquidity, and building attention, but noted that the industry has rapidly expanded beyond sports. He emphasized that event contracts are about trading future outcomes, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as derivatives, rather than a rebranding of sports betting.

In Q2 2026, Robinhood executed 13.6 billion event contracts, generating approximately $156 million in revenue, more than ten times year-on-year, and for the first time exceeding crypto trading revenue; during the same period, crypto trading revenue was about $100 million, down approximately 38% year-on-year, while stock trading revenue was about $129 million. Approximately 5 billion contracts were related to the World Cup, yet crypto contracts still captured a larger share of activity.

In August, event contracts were executed approximately 4.7 billion times, about 15 times the same period last year. The company stated that over the past year, the platform cleared about 9 billion event contracts, and the prediction market has become the fastest-growing revenue line. The product began with contracts for the presidential election in October 2024, with an independent prediction market center launching in March 2025.

The clearing channels have expanded from a single venue to multiple venues: contracts continue to route to Kalshi and ForecastEx, and there is also a joint venture with Susquehanna, holding a CFTC license, Rothera, and investments in Crypto.com and its prediction market subsidiary OG.com, adding a third clearing settlement path. Sports contracts are currently under litigation, with New York State suing Kalshi for over $36 billion and seeking a nationwide injunction, as some cities view sports event contracts as unlicensed sports betting.

The pricing is driven by event-driven categories. Buyers are platform funds and market makers treating the prediction market as a new trading engine, while sellers are funds still valuing the business based on sports betting. Transaction fees have shifted from sports season pulses to continuous contracts based on crypto prices, policies, and company events; beneficiaries are Robinhood, which has multi-venue routing and its own clearing, while pressured parties are sports contract venues relying on sports traffic and facing state law barriers.

Source: Public Information