U.S. New Home Listings Rise to Four-Year High Amid Cooling Sales
According to the latest data from Redfin, the number of new listings in the U.S. increased by 2.1% week-on-week to reach its highest level since August 2022, as of the four weeks ending August 30. Meanwhile, the number of homes under contract (signed but not yet closed) fell to its lowest point since February this year, indicating that supply is outpacing demand, while mortgage rates remain high.
Specifically, the seasonally adjusted new listings totaled 383,795 units, up 2.1% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year; the seasonally adjusted number of homes under contract was 308,282 units, down 0.1% month-on-month and down 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest since February.
In terms of home prices, the national median sale price was $398,632, up 2.2% year-on-year; however, the median list price was $392,828, down 0.1% year-on-year, indicating that sellers are beginning to concede in negotiations. During the same period, the average weekly rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.66%, with a single-day rate reaching 6.91% on September 2, further increasing from 6.56% a year ago.
On the inventory side, the total number of homes for sale nationwide reached 1,511,313 units, up 0.4% month-on-month; the market's months of supply ratio rose to 4 months, up from 3.7 months previously; the average days on market for homes remained at 45 days. The proportion of price-reduced listings rose to 20.9% (up from 20.2%), while 25.9% of homes sold for above the list price (up from 25%), indicating a clear market divergence.
Regionally, cities like San Francisco (+9%), West Palm Beach (+8.1%), and Cincinnati (+7.8%) saw the highest year-on-year price increases; in contrast, cities like Austin (-7.1%) and Seattle (-6.2%), which were previously hot during the pandemic, experienced significant year-on-year price declines, further widening regional disparities.
From a funding mechanism perspective, the current "supply exceeds demand" pattern is primarily due to a mismatch in behavior between buyers and sellers: on one hand, homeowners who had previously delayed listing their homes due to the "lock-in effect" of low interest rates are now entering the market due to job changes and family structure changes, increasing new listings; on the other hand, the high mortgage rate of around 6.66% continues to suppress buyer purchasing power—calculating for a median-priced home of about $398,000, monthly payments are now about $600 higher than in early 2021, directly leading to a decline in the contract conversion rate. The combination of increased supply and weakened demand is gradually shifting bargaining power from sellers to buyers, reflected in the rising proportion of price-reduced listings and the year-on-year decline in seller list prices.
Supplementary data: Based on the current 4 months of monthly supply, the market is gradually approaching the traditionally defined "supply-demand balance" range (typically, 5 to 6 months of supply is considered balanced), but regional disparities are evident: markets like San Francisco, with tight inventory, continue to see rising prices, while markets like Austin and Seattle, which had seen more construction and listings, are experiencing substantial price reductions.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
This round of "record high listings and low transaction volume" continues the structural issues left over from the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022: mortgage rates have risen from about 3% in 2021 to over 7% in 2023, creating a typical "lock-in effect"—homeowners with ultra-low rate mortgages prefer not to sell rather than give up their existing loan conditions, resulting in historically low inventory levels from 2023 to 2024. Unlike the inventory surplus caused by speculative buying and overbuilding from 2006 to 2008, this inventory increase is more about sellers who have been "locked in" for years being forced or voluntarily entering the market due to life changes, representing a slow release of supply rather than a new wave of speculative construction.
From a funding path perspective, what is truly flowing is not new capital, but rather the net worth of existing homes that have been "frozen" by mortgage rates: as more homeowners re-enter the market, supply is gradually released. On the buyer side, the mortgage rates in the 6.66% to 6.91% range act as a hidden "capital tax" on transaction volume—historical experience shows that for every 1% increase in rates, affordability decreases by about 10%. This explains why the number of homes for sale has decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, while the median sale price has still increased by 2.2% year-on-year: existing transactions are more concentrated in high-price markets like San Francisco, where cash buyers are more prevalent, thus pulling the median price up even as overall transaction volume shrinks.
Prices continue to rise in San Francisco and West Palm Beach, while Austin and Seattle are experiencing noticeable declines. This regional divergence continues the trend initiated by the influx of tech wealth during the pandemic's remote work surge: Austin and Seattle led the nation in new home construction and price increases due to remote work and tech wealth influx, but now, with tech layoffs and stricter return-to-office policies, net inflow of population has decreased, and price increases are reversing; meanwhile, markets like San Francisco, with long-term supply constraints and ongoing concentration of AI-related wealth, still show significant price resilience. Overall, the U.S. housing market is in a "slow digestion period" following the pandemic buying frenzy of 2021-2022, resembling a gradual rebalancing rather than a cliff-like crash like in 2008.
Structurally, this is essentially a typical "transfer of pricing power": the months of supply has risen from 3.7 to 4 months, signaling a slowdown in inventory absorption. Once the months of supply reaches the 5 to 6 months range, historical experience shows that sellers will completely lose pricing power; the underlying mechanism is that the high rates approaching 7% create effects in two directions—more sellers are forced to enter the market due to life changes, increasing listings; on the other hand, the speed of declining affordability outpaces income growth, suppressing effective demand. Therefore, the market is not rebalancing through a cliff-like price drop, but rather through a gradual increase in the proportion of price-reduced listings (currently at 20.9%), slowly transferring bargaining power from sellers to buyers.