Wintermute: US CPI Will Test Sustainability of Rate Repricing
Wintermute released a report stating that the upcoming US CPI data to be announced on Wednesday will be key in testing whether the recent rate repricing can be sustained. The cryptocurrency market has joined the ranks of rising risk appetite.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April; the Ethereum ETF has also recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by $244.9 million, with BlackRock accounting for over 80% of the combined inflow of about $1.1 billion for both.
These inflows occurred against a backdrop of relatively low trading volume, more characteristic of planned institutional allocations rather than aggressive momentum buying, reversing the narrative of "funds rotating out of Bitcoin" seen in the past two weeks.
On the institutional front, Wells Fargo announced it will launch a tokenized deposit business this fall, starting with the USD-GBP corridor and operating on its own chain, joining the ranks of JPMorgan and Citigroup. The Senate Majority Leader has submitted the CLARITY Act to end the debate motion, which will be procedurally voted on September 15.
The improvement in ETF inflows is encouraging but still represents a preliminary signal. If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September back above 50%, it could quickly alter the core logic supporting the current upward trend. Recent key catalysts include the CPI on August 12, PPI on August 13, retail sales on August 14, and the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27-29.
In terms of market mechanisms, institutional ETF allocations and macro data dominate the pricing of risk assets, with funds flowing from planned allocations into Bitcoin and Ethereum products, while short-term momentum trading is under pressure, and event-driven cautious sentiment prevails.
Until ETF inflows and digital asset treasury activities prove sustainable, caution is advised.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
As a crypto market maker, Wintermute continuously tracks ETF flows and macro catalysts through weekly reports, emphasizing that single-week inflows are insufficient to confirm structural changes, viewing CPI as an immediate test of rate paths and risk appetite.
The capital path is reflected in the net inflows led by BlackRock's ETFs and the parallel advancement of bank tokenized deposits, motivated by institutions planning allocations in a low trading volume environment, while traditional banks accelerate on-chain settlements to meet digital asset demand.
Similar to previous cases where employment data triggered rapid adjustments in rate expectations followed by synchronized rebounds in risk assets, the current phase is characterized by a dense macro data period combined with advances in crypto regulation.
Essentially, this involves macro-driven and institutional allocation reconstruction, with the mechanism being that when weak employment lowers rate hike probabilities, inflation data becomes the next pricing anchor, and ETF flows reflect institutions' immediate reactions to this path.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Single-week inflows are insufficient to prove structural changes
CPI is an immediate test of rate repricing
Institutional allocations often manifest in low trading volumes