Record Gap of 630,000 Between U.S. Home Sellers and Buyers
According to Redfin, the number of home sellers in the U.S. exceeds buyers by approximately 630,000, marking the largest gap since records began in 2013.
Data from February shows that there are 46.3% more sellers than buyers (about 629,800), with the number of buyers dropping to around 1.36 million and sellers at about 1.99 million; this gap has defined the market as a buyer's market since May 2024 (where sellers exceed buyers by more than 10%).
The main reasons for buyer retreat include high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, layoffs, and economic and political uncertainty, while the increase in sellers is driven by relief from the rate lock effect and new home supply, particularly in sunny regions.
The strongest buyer's market is concentrated in the South, with sellers exceeding buyers by 163% in Miami, 120% in Nashville, 112% in Austin, 110% in West Palm Beach, and 104% in San Antonio.
National home price growth has significantly slowed, with some markets experiencing price reductions and expanded negotiation space, but affordability still limits actual transactions.
Mechanically, this imbalance is driven by a mismatch in supply and demand, giving buyers bargaining power and lowering some listing prices, with funds flowing towards areas with negotiation space and new homes. Sellers and homeowners with locked-in low rates are under pressure, and overall transaction volume is suppressed by both high rates and high prices, leading to short-term pressure on real estate-related stocks and building material demand.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Redfin has tracked the number of sellers and buyers since 2013. The seller's market peaked in 2021-2022 due to the pandemic, followed by continuous buyer retreat due to high rates and prices. Starting mid-2024, it has shifted to a buyer's market with an expanding gap, differing from the inventory backlog after 2008, as current sellers are mostly non-distressed holders.
In terms of capital flow, the supply of new homes and the easing of rate locks are releasing inventory, but high rates and affordability gaps keep buyers on the sidelines, with more funds flowing into the rental market and existing low-rate homeowners, motivated by waiting for further rate declines or price corrections before re-entering the market.
Similar cases can be seen in the 2010s when some sunny regions adjusted prices after inventory surplus, and the supply reversal post-pandemic due to remote work driving population migration; currently, U.S. housing is transitioning from shortage to localized surplus, still constrained by rates nationwide.
Structurally, this indicates a transfer of pricing power: the advantage in seller numbers shifts bargaining power from sellers to buyers, driven by the combination of increased supply and reduced demand, forcing listing prices and transaction conditions to tilt towards buyers, while the high rate lock effect delays a comprehensive price decline.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Seller surplus does not equate to guaranteed price drops; rates are the lock.
A buyer's market only applies to those with payment capability.
The speed of inventory release determines the pace of bargaining power transfer.