Consensus
Consensus: AI search, research, or knowledge-work product turning natural language questions into sourced answers and workflows.
ABAB Structured Brief
Consensus is indexed in ABAB Crypto Map under AI Models & Apps. This page keeps the official site, category, tags, and related ABAB coverage together as a searchable crypto project profile. Official domain: consensus.app.
Related News & Analysis
80-Year-Old Investment Master Howard Marks Deep Interview: Why Did I Change My View on AI? Second-Level Thinking and 25 Years of Decision Reflection
"I'm 80 and I wasted 25 years of my life. Don't make my mistake. - Howard Marks" (My First Million podcast interview with Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital). Here are the key points summarized: 1. Why Change Views on AI (From Bubble Theory to Requalification) • Cognitive update inspired by his son (VC investor): After writing a memo on the "AI bubble," his son Andrew, who is involved in cutting-edge AI investments, pointed out that the pace of technological evolution far exceeded expectations, prompting him to completely rewrite and update his views. • Essential differences between AI and past technological revolutions: • Autonomy: Past technologies, from railroads to the internet, were merely efficiency tools, but AI possesses the ability to autonomously analyze, synthesize, and even self-correct, deriving solutions from goals. • Unpredictability: The evolution and boundaries of AI are completely unpredictable, a phenomenon not seen in previous technology cycles. • The "last mile moat" of experienced investors: • AI relies on historical data training and pattern recognition, but in new scenarios without historical references, extreme black swans, and identifying bad actors, the "intuition and gut feeling" of seasoned human investors remain irreplaceable. 2. Second-Level Thinking and Cognitive Differences • The key to transcending mediocrity: • Exceptional investment performance must be based on "differentiated insights (Variant Perception) that differ from market consensus," and you must prove yourself right. • If what you see is the same as the masses, you cannot outperform the average. • Insight cannot be taught: Just as it is said in basketball that "height cannot be trained," exceptional insight and contrarian thinking are often difficult to teach through instruction; they rely more on long-term practical experience and a deep understanding of probability distributions. 3. Contrarian Operations During the 2008 Lehman Crisis: Making Decisions in Fear • The ark must be built before the flood: Oaktree Capital raised $11 billion for a distressed debt fund in early 2007-2008, as the best time to reserve ammunition is when the market is overheated (you can't raise money when the flood comes). • Investing with trepidation: • After Lehman's collapse, partner Bruce Karsh averaged $450 million per week over 15 weeks (building a position of over $7 billion in a single quarter). • Emphasizing that true heroes are not fearless, but those who still act despite fear. "If you wait until there is no fear or risk to act, the best investment opportunities will have already passed." 4. 39 Years of Top Partnership and the Buffett-Munger Friendship • Cornerstone: Shared values + Complementary skills: • Collaborating with Bruce Karsh for 39 years without ever having a serious argument, the core lies in both being not purely "financial maximizers." • Their strengths are extremely complementary (Bruce focuses on behind-the-scenes operations and legal restructuring, while Howard handles external communication, client fundraising, and memo writing), with mutual gratitude. • The true relationship between Buffett and Munger: • Charlie Munger's greatest contribution to Buffett was persuading him to abandon the low-quality "cigar butt investing" in favor of "buying great companies at reasonable prices." • The two are like brothers; Munger is a well-read humanist, while Buffett is an extreme business calculation machine, and their intellectual collision and mutual respect form the greatest partnership model in history. 5. Life Reflection: The First 25 Years of "Unconsciousness" and Wisdom in Being Oneself • Lack of "clear intention" before 50: • Admitting that before founding Oaktree Capital at 50, many of his life decisions (from moving from Citigroup's research department to the bond department, to moving to California) were filled with following the crowd and luck. • The only success is living life on one's own terms: • Quoting Christopher Morley: "There is only one success, to be able to spend your life in your own way." • Finding a career that plays to one's strengths, avoids weaknesses, and brings happiness should not be dictated by friends, parents, or societal opinions. • The underlying tone of probabilistic thinking and humility: • Starting with "I could be wrong" as a thought process prevents one from falling into disaster; what truly leads to destruction are those who are 100% convinced they are right and bet their entire fortune against an 80/20 probability. 6. Recommended Classic Reading List for Masters • "A Short History of Financial Euphoria" - John Kenneth Galbraith: Understanding the psychological weaknesses and the essence of bubbles behind cycles. • "Fooled by Randomness" - Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Building a respect for luck, probability, and randomness, and not mistaking short-term luck for personal skill.
Behind the Scenes Interview with Shark Tank: Barbara, Kevin O'Leary, Lori and Other Top Investors Discuss Wealth Strategies and Risk Management Rules
"I Spent A Day With Shark Tank Billionaires!" (School of Hard Knocks behind-the-scenes interview video at the recording site of "Shark Tank", hosted by James), here are the key points summarized: 1. Barbara Corcoran (Real Estate Queen, cashed out $66 million in one day) • Marketing rule for making $66 million in one day: By pricing 88 apartments uniformly below the market price at $12,000, using a "first come, first served" purchase mechanism, all properties (including those originally overpriced) were sold out within an hour. • Real estate wealth strategy: Never sell and continuous leverage (Never Sell, Cash-Out Refinance): • The core of real estate investment lies in leverage and cash flow. Use a small down payment with a large mortgage to acquire assets, and as rents rise, directly apply for a second mortgage to cash out for snowball investing. • Properties under personal name are never easily sold, relying on continuous mortgage cash-out for tax-free cash flow. • Overcoming failure: The underlying logic of business is the universal "hustle and execution". One must have the mindset to quickly get back up and return to the field when facing setbacks (it was a 30-word letter to the producer, confronting past failures, that won her a spot on Shark Tank). 2. Kevin O'Leary (Mr. Wonderful, seller of a $4.2 billion software company) • The "Signal vs. Noise" rule taught by Steve Jobs: • Every morning, identify the 3 most critical core tasks (Signal), everything else is meaningless "noise". • Maintain an 80% signal vs. 20% noise execution, refuse all unrelated socializing and distractions to completely finish these 3 tasks. • Wealth protection rule: $5 million in Treasury bonds as a safety net: • It’s hard for entrepreneurs to make big money, but even harder to keep it. After scaling the business and achieving significant liquidity, diversify assets across 11 economic sectors. • Must steadfastly allocate $5 million in cash to short-term Treasury bonds (T-Bills) as the ultimate safety net, never touch this money. If all wealth is in yachts, luxury cars, real estate, or volatile stocks, that’s not called wealth, but rather carrying a high risk of bankruptcy. 3. Lori Greiner (QVC Queen, investor in Scrub Daddy) • Scrub Daddy made history: Achieved the highest return on investment in Shark Tank history (invested in Scrub Daddy and continues to hold 20% equity, which has now grown into a nine-figure business). • Patent moat: • Owns over 120 patents. Emphasizes that when an invention or product is revolutionary and unique, patents must be applied for to protect it, otherwise it will inevitably face ruthless copying and imitation. Patents are the only legal weapon to counter infringement. • Light assets and online leverage: With the significant reduction in startup barriers for young people today, they can fully utilize social media, self-media content, and search tools for zero-cost exploration, bravely taking calculated risks. 4. Daymond John (FUBU founder, $400 million annual revenue tycoon) • Do the homework first: • The first step in entrepreneurship is to do thorough research and homework (this is zero-cost). What you do for free in your spare time can eventually be transformed into money-making skills. • Find hits from vertical culture and communities (Community over Product): • FUBU achieved $400 million in annual revenue by identifying an unmet cultural niche and community, and customizing products for them. • Whether it’s making eco-friendly recycled products, charitable socks (like Bombas), or home items (like the multi-million selling Elf on the Shelf), the core is solving pain points for specific communities and deeply cultivating one’s obsession in a vertical niche. 5. Guest Shark/Top Venture Capitalist (early investor in Coinbase/Robinhood) • Seeking non-consensus arbitrage: • As an early investor, captured billions in exits from companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, Dropbox, Lyft, Ring, Pillpack (invested $50,000 in Coinbase, later made $20 million). • The core question in entrepreneurship and investment is: "Tell me something you believe is right, but almost no one agrees with you?" (like betting on strangers sharing rides with Uber, or Airbnb betting on renting out strangers' living rooms). • Extremely optimistic about sports IP assets (NBA/NFL/MLB): • Believes that in the next 1-2 years, the most recession-resistant physical investment will be top professional sports teams. • The logic is based on resistance to AI disruption and irrelevance: The value of sports events is not strongly correlated with the regular stock market and will not be disrupted by AI, with core revenue sources from long-term contractual broadcasting shares, sponsorships, and ticket sales, possessing a century-long legal regional monopoly.
Saylor: BIP-110 Signals All Come from OCEAN Pool Without Consensus
...ally unattainable in this cycle, indicating a lack of miner consensus. OCEAN set BIP-110 signals as the default for existing endpoints, guiding nodes to use Bitcoin Knots and miners to use DATUM, functionally creating a ...
Vitalik Buterin Proposes Streamlined Ethereum Consensus Chain with Enhanced Privacy
...alik Buterin stated that to further streamline the Ethereum consensus chain and incorporate robust validator privacy protection, decoupling of deposits, staking activities, and withdrawals can be achieved through ZK tech...
Saylor: Hard Consensus is Bitcoin's Immune System
...or, founder of Strategy, stated on the X platform that hard consensus is Bitcoin's immune system. He pointed out that transaction fees price block space, nodes set policies, miners build blocks, holders allocate capital,...
Saylor: The Future of Bitcoin is Shaped by Dynamic Consensus Among Nodes, Miners, and Holders
...ted that the future of Bitcoin is determined by the dynamic consensus of nodes, miners, and holders. Nodes rely on transaction validation power, miners depend on computational power, and holders rely on economic power. T...
Bitcoin Core Developer Adam Back Emphasizes Its Decentralized Consensus Mechanism
... Adam Back posted that Bitcoin Core operates on a technical consensus, driven by a large number of highly intelligent creative developers with 5-15 years of experience, and all changes require consensus from all parties....
Adjacent Founder: Entering the Era of Consensus Capital, 5 Funds Capture 75% of Investments
...d out on social media that venture capital has entered the "consensus capital" stage: nearly 75% of limited partner funds are monopolized by 5 top funds; similarly, nearly 75% of VC investments are concentrated in 5 comp...