正如你们可能知道的，在我的书中，我描述了我所称的“大周期（The Big Cycle）”——其中包括五种主要力量的相互作用与演变： 1）债务与货币秩序， 2）国内政治与社会秩序， 3）国际地缘政治秩序， 4）自然事件（天灾等）， 5）新技术。 我详细阐述了这些力量通常如何变化，因此我也建立了许多指标来密切追踪现实事件与我所提出的“周期模型”之间的对照情况。 正如你们所知道的，我的指标显示，我们现在正处于“大周期的泡沫阶段（bubble stage）”——这一阶段的特征是债务的不可持续增长、债务的货币化（即央行印钱买债），从而改变了货币体系，同时伴随政治、地缘政治与技术结构的剧烈动荡。 简单来说，在许多国家中： 1）债务已经触及上限； 2）国内政治阻碍了大幅加税； 3）社会压力使削减开支或福利变得困难； 4）昂贵的国际地缘政治冲突； 5）昂贵的技术变革， 这些都迫使政府不得不进一步举债、印钱。 在这一阶段，中央政府往往出现巨额财政赤字，而中央银行通常采取债务货币化（即量化宽松 QE）政策来应对——这反而助长了泡沫，而非收紧政策、保持克制。 As you probably know, in my books I described what I call the Big Cycle in which 5 major forces--1) the debt/money order, 2) the internal political/social order, 3) the international geopolitical order, 4) acts of nature, and 5) new technologies--interact and transpire. I described in detail how these changes typically take place and, as a result, I have many indicators that I watch closely to track how actual events are transpiring relative to my template. And, as you probably know, my measures show that we are now in the bubble stage of the Big Cycle, which is when there is unsustainable debt growth and monetization of the debts that change the monetary order and coincide with disruptive changes in the political, geopolitical, and technological orders. Very simply, in a number of countries: 1) debt limits have been reached at the same time as 2) internal politics prevents the significant raising of taxes or 3) cutting of expenses/benefits at the same time as 4) costly international geopolitical conflicts and 5) costly technological changes demand more debt/money. At this stage, central governments classically have large budget deficits and central banks classically use debt monetizations (quantitative easings) that fuel the bubble when they should be exhibiting more restraint. In the article below, I note the Federal Reserve’s announced shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and explain my thinking about it.
观点原文
正如你们可能知道的，在我的书中，我描述了我所称的“大周期（The Big Cycle）”——其中包括五种主要力量的相互作用与演变：
1）债务与货币秩序，
2）国内政治与社会秩序，
3）国际地缘政治秩序，
4）自然事件（天灾等），
5）新技术。
我详细阐述了这些力量通常如何变化，因此我也建立了许多指标来密切追踪现实事件与我所提出的“周期模型”之间的对照情况。
正如你们所知道的，我的指标显示，我们现在正处于“大周期的泡沫阶段（bubble stage）”——这一阶段的特征是债务的不可持续增长、债务的货币化（即央行印钱买债），从而改变了货币体系，同时伴随政治、地缘政治与技术结构的剧烈动荡。
简单来说，在许多国家中：
1）债务已经触及上限；
2）国内政治阻碍了大幅加税；
3）社会压力使削减开支或福利变得困难；
4）昂贵的国际地缘政治冲突；
5）昂贵的技术变革，
这些都迫使政府不得不进一步举债、印钱。
在这一阶段，中央政府往往出现巨额财政赤字，而中央银行通常采取债务货币化（即量化宽松 QE）政策来应对——这反而助长了泡沫，而非收紧政策、保持克制。
As you probably know, in my books I described what I call the Big Cycle in which 5 major forces--1) the debt/money order, 2) the internal political/social order, 3) the international geopolitical order, 4) acts of nature, and 5) new technologies--interact and transpire. I described in detail how these changes typically take place and, as a result, I have many indicators that I watch closely to track how actual events are transpiring relative to my template. And, as you probably know, my measures show that we are now in the bubble stage of the Big Cycle, which is when there is unsustainable debt growth and monetization of the debts that change the monetary order and coincide with disruptive changes in the political, geopolitical, and technological orders.
Very simply, in a number of countries: 1) debt limits have been reached at the same time as 2) internal politics prevents the significant raising of taxes or 3) cutting of expenses/benefits at the same time as 4) costly international geopolitical conflicts and 5) costly technological changes demand more debt/money. At this stage, central governments classically have large budget deficits and central banks classically use debt monetizations (quantitative easings) that fuel the bubble when they should be exhibiting more restraint.
In the article below, I note the Federal Reserve’s announced shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and explain my thinking about it.
相关观点
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