转发 新一期播客节目上线啦，本期嘉宾是 @Kalshi 的联合创始人兼 CEO Tarek Mansour 在这期特别节目中，主持人 @rhackett 与 Tarek 深度对话，探讨了预测市场如何让人们能够直接交易现实世界事件——从选举到通胀——以及这对金融与预测行业未来意味着什么。 Tarek 解释了为什么预测市场不是赌博、监管为何对 Kalshi 的成功至关重要，以及为什么公司将加密货币和稳定币作为其国际战略中的关键组成部分。他还分享了自己在政策、产品设计以及在创新前沿保持合规方面获得的经验教训。 主要话题包括： → 预测市场如何让社会变得更“聪明” → 监管在金融科技创新中的作用 → 为什么 Kalshi 从加密支付起步 → 从 FTX 学到的教训，以及为什么“合规”本身是一道护城河 → 如何建立用户信任与网络效应 → Tarek 对生产力、领导力，甚至康普茶（kombucha）的看法 时间轴 Timestamps： 00:00 – 引言：什么是预测市场？为什么是现在？ 01:04 – Kalshi 的使命：让预测可交易 01:52 – 为什么加密货币契合 Kalshi 的长期战略 03:19 – 使用稳定币走向全球 05:55 – 漫长的监管之路及其重要性 07:51 – 以 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 为榜样 08:17 – “特朗普交易”：直接 vs. 间接的事件敞口 10:51 – 从 FTX 吸取的教训，以及为何合规是一道护城河 12:06 – Kalshi 如何监控市场并防止操纵 15:00 – 总统大选后的市场动能 16:48 – 华盛顿的政策运作方式 17:56 – 被监管的“隐藏优势” 18:52 – 快问快答：最差建议、生产力习惯等 21:00 – “流程与耐心”的重要性（“The Score Takes Care of Itself”） 22:30 – Tarek 坚持到底的“小观点” New podcast episode with @Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) is live. In this special episode, our host @rhackett chats with Tarek bout how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting. Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier. Topics include: → How prediction markets make society "smarter" → The role of regulation in fintech innovation → Why Kalshi started with crypto payments → Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance → Building consumer trust and network effects → Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now? 01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable 01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy 03:19 – Going global with stablecoins 05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered 7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models 08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events 10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat 12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation 15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election 16:48 – How policy in DC really works 17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated 18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more 21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”) 22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on
观点原文
转发
新一期播客节目上线啦，本期嘉宾是
@Kalshi 的联合创始人兼 CEO Tarek Mansour
在这期特别节目中，主持人 @rhackett 与 Tarek 深度对话，探讨了预测市场如何让人们能够直接交易现实世界事件——从选举到通胀——以及这对金融与预测行业未来意味着什么。
Tarek 解释了为什么预测市场不是赌博、监管为何对 Kalshi 的成功至关重要，以及为什么公司将加密货币和稳定币作为其国际战略中的关键组成部分。他还分享了自己在政策、产品设计以及在创新前沿保持合规方面获得的经验教训。
主要话题包括：
→ 预测市场如何让社会变得更“聪明”
→ 监管在金融科技创新中的作用
→ 为什么 Kalshi 从加密支付起步
→ 从 FTX 学到的教训，以及为什么“合规”本身是一道护城河
→ 如何建立用户信任与网络效应
→ Tarek 对生产力、领导力，甚至康普茶（kombucha）的看法
时间轴 Timestamps：
00:00 – 引言：什么是预测市场？为什么是现在？
01:04 – Kalshi 的使命：让预测可交易
01:52 – 为什么加密货币契合 Kalshi 的长期战略
03:19 – 使用稳定币走向全球
05:55 – 漫长的监管之路及其重要性
07:51 – 以 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 为榜样
08:17 – “特朗普交易”：直接 vs. 间接的事件敞口
10:51 – 从 FTX 吸取的教训，以及为何合规是一道护城河
12:06 – Kalshi 如何监控市场并防止操纵
15:00 – 总统大选后的市场动能
16:48 – 华盛顿的政策运作方式
17:56 – 被监管的“隐藏优势”
18:52 – 快问快答：最差建议、生产力习惯等
21:00 – “流程与耐心”的重要性（“The Score Takes Care of Itself”）
22:30 – Tarek 坚持到底的“小观点”
New podcast episode with @Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) is live.
In this special episode, our host @rhackett chats with Tarek bout how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting.
Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier.
Topics include:
→ How prediction markets make society "smarter"
→ The role of regulation in fintech innovation
→ Why Kalshi started with crypto payments
→ Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance
→ Building consumer trust and network effects
→ Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha
Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now?
01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable
01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy
03:19 – Going global with stablecoins
05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered
7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models
08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events
10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat
12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation
15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election
16:48 – How policy in DC really works
17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated
18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more
21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”)
22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on
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