这是一个令人惊叹、也令人恐惧的时代。 我们正生活在多重、重叠的技术革命之间：AI、区块链、数字所有权；同时还处于一场社会学革命之中——代际更替：旧思维方式逐渐退出，新一代自带对未来技术的熟悉度进入世界。 我第一次意识到这一点，是在我做媒体工作的时候，人们问我：‘纸媒是不是死了？’ 我的回答是：‘我不知道它是不是已经死了，但它肯定正在走向死亡。’ 每天，都有人出生，对纸媒毫无感觉； 每天，也有人离世，他们曾伴随纸媒成长。 It is an amazing and scary time to be alive. We are living through multiple, overlapping technological revolutions - AI, blockchain, digital ownership - and a sociological one: generational replacement, where older attitudes age out and new ones enter the world already fluent in what is coming. I first realized this when I was in media and people would ask me, “Is print dead?” My answer: “I don’t know if it’s dead, but it’s definitely dying.” Every day, someone is born indifferent to print while someone dies who had grown up with it. As this natural evolution takes place, the ratio of new print readers to old print readers is never 1:1. And, this is what a declining trajectory looks like. Digital assets follow the opposite curve. Every day, skeptics are replaced by digital natives who intuitively understands ownership online. You cannot manufacture that tailwind. Yes, it sounds stark but history has experienced this exact combination before: multiple technological revolutions occurring simultaneously with generational replacement. Between 1879 and 1903, the light bulb, automobile, airplane and telephone were all invented. Thus, someone who died in 1878 and someone born in 1904 experienced different worlds. We are essentially in a similar moment again. Right now, we are a society in "1910" saying, “I don’t need an automobile, my horse works fine,” or “Why would I need a telephone when I can just walk over and talk?” What is currently missing for many is imagination. The ability to see what these technologies will become and enable. As @HHorsley and @hosseeb reminded me with their posts below, the only sustainable posture is optimism. And as @kevin2kelly said (and, I often quote), “The future is created by optimists.” So when you see headlines like “AI might end humanity” or hear AI compared to the atom bomb, pause and ask yourself: Did your mind picture a nuclear explosion? Or did you picture clean, safe nuclear energy? Crypto: a scam? Or, is the Internet is absorbing the movement of value the same way it absorbed telephony with VoIP years back. Your answer reveals the future you think we are building; and perhaps the one you are also willing to help shape. 随着这种自然演化发生，新读者与旧读者的比率永远不可能是 1:1。而这，就是一个衰落曲线的样子。 但数字资产走的正是相反的一条曲线。 每天，怀疑者被懂数字世界的“原生一代”所取代； 他们天然理解“在线所有权”。 这种顺风，不可能被人为制造。 是的，这听起来很极端，但历史上，我们确实经历过同样的组合：多场技术革命，与代际更替，同时发生。 1879 到 1903 年期间，电灯泡、汽车、飞机、电话——全部被发明。因此，一个 1878 年去世的人，和一个 1904 年出生的人，生活在完全不同的世界里。 我们现在，正处在一个类似的节点。 现在的社会，大概相当于“1910 年”的人们在说： ‘我不需要汽车，我的马很好用。’或 ‘我为什么要电话？我走过去跟人当面说就行。’ 今天，许多人缺少的，是想象力。 是看到这些技术未来将成长成什么、又将开启什么可能性的能力。 正如 @HHorsley 和 @hosseeb 在他们的贴文中提醒我的那样，唯一可持续的姿态，就是乐观。而正如 @kevin2kelly 所说（我也常引用）：“未来是由乐观主义者创造的。” 所以，当你看到类似“AI 可能终结人类”的标题， 或当你听到 AI 被比作原子弹时， 停下来问自己一件事： 你脑海里浮现的，是核爆？ 还是干净、安全的核能？ 你看到的 Crypto，是骗局？ 还是互联网正在吸收“价值的传输方式”，正如当年用 VoIP 吞掉传统电话一样？ 你的回答，反映出你认为我们正在构建怎样的未来； 也反映出你愿意参与塑造怎样的未来。