加密市场到底发生了什么？市场横盘或下行，气氛明显发生了变化……这里有几点看法。 在我看来，市场之所以停滞，是因为“去中介化”这个核心用例在美国基本被摧毁了。一个基于账户（account-based）的行业，相比现有金融体系并没有任何明显优势。监管与法律层面的失序，加上立法层面的长期停滞，形成了一种有毒组合，导致资本外流、用户回避——至少在美国是如此。 2025 年，GENIUS 法案正式成为法律，为稳定币建立了联邦监管框架。这是一种银行偏好的、基于账户的路径： * 禁止非银行机构支付利息 * 未能保护自我托管 * 并且在设计上为“批发型 CBDC（中央银行数字货币）”铺平了道路 所谓“批发”只是表面说法。在后台，CBDC 的所有其他特征正在被逐步搭建，与此同时，持续扩大的财政赤字仍在不断侵蚀美元的价值。稳定币提供了一种希望：增加对美国国债的需求，从而可能压低利率，并在更广泛的范围内分摊巨额债务和赤字所带来的利息货币化成本。 与此同时，更广泛的数字资产市场仍在等待参议院通过 CLARITY 法案。CLARITY 除了为代币化商品、代币化证券、代币化现实世界资产提供一些（过于繁琐的）法律清晰度外，还承诺通过保护自我托管、并纳入众议院的其他条款，来修复 GENIUS 法案的一些缺陷。 但说到底，即便参议院最终通过某项法案，我预计任何对个人自由的认可都只会是象征性的，不会对这种基于账户的体制造成实质性改变。 货币的未来，将决定一切的未来。除非出现某种神迹，否则那个未来看起来将是：需要许可的、被全面监控的、并且被持续贬值的。 请记住，比特币最初的承诺，并不是一种缺乏流动性、不断通胀的资产，而是一个无需许可、点对点的支付系统。在比特币体系中，没有任何第三方可以对你使用自己资金的权利设置条件；你可以以接近光速的速度，把资金转移到世界任何地方。 以账户为中心的 HODL（长期持有）主导模式，确实带来了一些有用的创新，但正如前文所述，这些创新正面临严重威胁，而且现实已经出现这样的荒谬场景：有人因为编写用于保护自我托管与隐私的软件而身陷囹圄。 在某个时点，行业与政府将会推出数字身份（Digital ID）， 用来“授予你访问其许可型货币网络的权限”。不要被迷惑——这只是一种表面上的自由幻象，其真正目的，是实现更深层次的监控、胁迫与控制。 我们必须拒绝这种全球主义的监控国家，回归第一性原理： 任何政府都不应授予你交易的许可，除非具备合理理由与正当程序，也不应剥夺这一权利。 要回到这种状态，要么是彻底否定第三方原则（3rd-party doctrine），要么是建立强有力的隐私法律保护，并配合去中心化的计算架构（如比特币 或 ZCash），通过限制监控来建立信任，并始终保护无需许可的自我托管。 自 2017 年以来，我一直在推动这样的未来，但目前看来，真正的动能仍然集中在基于账户的主导模式上，只是附带了一些象征性的个人自由点缀。 数字身份与 CBDC 对自由的未来构成了生存级威胁，且它们拥有更强的推进势头。在这种背景下，为如何增长并保全你的净资产提前做好规划，是明智之举。 你仍然可以持续向国会表达诉求：彻底禁止中央银行数字货币、禁止数字身份、保护自我托管、并确保交易权再次不受侵犯。这或许需要一个奇迹，但我依然相信——奇迹仍然会发生。 What's going on in crypto? Flat or declining markets. Definite vibe shift... A few thoughts. Markets have stalled, in my opinion, because the disintermediation use case has been effectively destroyed in America. An account-based industry offers no distinct advantage over the status quo. A toxic combination of regulatory and legal malfeasance combined with legislative inertia have caused capital flight and user avoidance - in America. In 2025 GENIUS Act became law, providing a federal framework for stablecoins. This is an account-based approach, favored by banks, that prevents non-banks from paying interest, fails to protect self-custody and by design enables a "wholesale CBDC". The wholesale part is cosmetic. On the back end all of the other characteristics of CBDC are being built while the massive deficits that undermine the value of the dollar continue unabated. Stablecoins offer the hope of more demand for US Treasuries, which may help lower rates and more broadly distribute the monetization of federal interest payments on our massive debt and deficits. Meanwhile, the broader digital asset market still awaits passage of the CLARITY Act by the Senate. Along with providing some overly cumbersome legal clarity for tokenized commodities, tokenized securities, and tokenized real world assets, CLARITY promises to fix some of the deficiencies in GENIUS by protecting self-custody and incorporating other House provisions. Ultimately, if the Senate even passes a bill, I expect any nod to individual freedom will be cosmetic and pose no meaningful change to the account-based regime. The future of money will determine the future. Without massive divine intervention, that future looks permissioned, surveilled, and debased. Remember, the promise of Bitcoin was not an illiquid inflating asset, but rather a permission-less, peer-to-peer payment system. With Bitcoin, no third party could condition your access to your money, and you could move it anywhere at the speed of light. Account-based HODL dominance has led to some useful innovations, but they are highly threatened as already noted, and punctuated by men in jail for writing software to protect self-custody and privacy. At some point, the industry and government will offer digital ID to grant permission to their permissioned network for money. Do not be deceived; this is a cosmetic illusion of freedom designed to enable more surveillance, coercion, and control. We need to reject this globalist surveillance state and return to first principles. No government grants you permission to transact, and no government should infringe this right without probable cause and due process. Returning to this condition requires either a wholesale rejection of the 3rd party doctrine or strong legal protections privacy and decentralized computing architectures (like Bitcoin or ZCash) that build trust in ways that limit surveillance and always protect permissionless self-custody. I've pushed for such a future since 2017, but most of the momentum looks like account-based dominance with some cosmetic nods to individual freedom. Digital ID and CBDC pose an existential threat to the future of freedom, and they have more momentum. It would be wise to make a plan to grow and preserve your net worth with that in mind. You can keep telling your Congress to FULLY ban Central Bank Digital Currency, ban Digital ID, protect self-custody, and guarantee that right to transact is once again un-infringed. It will take a miracle, but I believe miracles still happen. Happy New Year!