首页人物观点ChatGPT 已经拥有 8 亿月活用户（WAU），在这种情况下，谷歌的广告业务竟然还能保持如此韧性，这让我感到意外。是的，部分原因可能是 ChatGPT 正在服务那些原本不会通过谷歌传统广告变现的新场景和新工作流，但这个解释我并不完全信服。就我个人经历而言，我和我认识的人已经完全不再从 Google 开始信息搜索流程了。这种情况可能至少发生在 1000 万名高收入白领身上，而他们过去应该是谷歌广告收入的重要组成部分（因为他们消费能力高）。我怀疑，谷歌业务真正出现裂痕，会在 OAI（OpenAI）推出成熟的广告系统之后开始显现。基本上，我的理论是：问题不在‘广告需求方’，而在‘广告供给方’。 ChatGPT 正在侵蚀谷歌广告的需求增长，但这些广告预算暂时还没有新的去处。一旦 OAI 推出一个完善的自助广告投放系统，广告主就会把部分预算从谷歌转移到 OAI，这一点也会在谷歌的财报中变得可衡量、可见。 I have been surprised by the resiliency in Google's ad business given ChatGPT is at 800M WAU Yes, some of it is that ChatGPT is serving new use cases/workflows that weren't going to monetize via traditional Google ads, but I am not convinced by this theory. Anecdotally, me and people I know no longer start the information search process on Google at all. This is true for probably at least 10M affluent white collar workers who must have comprised a meaningful percent of Google's revenue given their high spend My suspicion is that the cracks will begin to show in Google's business when OAI rolls out a real ad program. Basically, my theory is that the problem is not the demand side, but the supply side. ChatGPT is eroding Google's demand growth, but the supply doesn't have anywhere to go Once OAI rolls out a robust self-serve ad program, advertisers will re-allocate some amount of their budget away from Google to OAI, and this will become visible in Google's financials

ChatGPT 已经拥有 8 亿月活用户（WAU），在这种情况下，谷歌的广告业务竟然还能保持如此韧性，这让我感到意外。是的，部分原因可能是 ChatGPT 正在服务那些原本不会通过谷歌传统广告变现的新场景和新工作流，但这个解释我并不完全信服。就我个人经历而言，我和我认识的人已经完全不再从 Google 开始信息搜索流程了。这种情况可能至少发生在 1000 万名高收入白领身上，而他们过去应该是谷歌广告收入的重要组成部分（因为他们消费能力高）。我怀疑，谷歌业务真正出现裂痕，会在 OAI（OpenAI）推出成熟的广告系统之后开始显现。基本上，我的理论是：问题不在‘广告需求方’，而在‘广告供给方’。 ChatGPT 正在侵蚀谷歌广告的需求增长，但这些广告预算暂时还没有新的去处。一旦 OAI 推出一个完善的自助广告投放系统，广告主就会把部分预算从谷歌转移到 OAI，这一点也会在谷歌的财报中变得可衡量、可见。 I have been surprised by the resiliency in Google's ad business given ChatGPT is at 800M WAU Yes, some of it is that ChatGPT is serving new use cases/workflows that weren't going to monetize via traditional Google ads, but I am not convinced by this theory. Anecdotally, me and people I know no longer start the information search process on Google at all. This is true for probably at least 10M affluent white collar workers who must have comprised a meaningful percent of Google's revenue given their high spend My suspicion is that the cracks will begin to show in Google's business when OAI rolls out a real ad program. Basically, my theory is that the problem is not the demand side, but the supply side. ChatGPT is eroding Google's demand growth, but the supply doesn't have anywhere to go Once OAI rolls out a robust self-serve ad program, advertisers will re-allocate some amount of their budget away from Google to OAI, and this will become visible in Google's financials

Kyle SamaniManaging Partner at Multicoin Capital

2025/11/25 07:24 UTC

观点原文

ChatGPT 已经拥有 8 亿月活用户（WAU），在这种情况下，谷歌的广告业务竟然还能保持如此韧性，这让我感到意外。

是的，部分原因可能是 ChatGPT 正在服务那些原本不会通过谷歌传统广告变现的新场景和新工作流，但这个解释我并不完全信服。就我个人经历而言，我和我认识的人已经完全不再从 Google 开始信息搜索流程了。这种情况可能至少发生在 1000 万名高收入白领身上，而他们过去应该是谷歌广告收入的重要组成部分（因为他们消费能力高）。

我怀疑，谷歌业务真正出现裂痕，会在 OAI（OpenAI）推出成熟的广告系统之后开始显现。

基本上，我的理论是：

问题不在‘广告需求方’，而在‘广告供给方’。

ChatGPT 正在侵蚀谷歌广告的需求增长，但这些广告预算暂时还没有新的去处。

一旦 OAI 推出一个完善的自助广告投放系统，广告主就会把部分预算从谷歌转移到 OAI，这一点也会在谷歌的财报中变得可衡量、可见。

I have been surprised by the resiliency in Google's ad business given ChatGPT is at 800M WAU

Yes, some of it is that ChatGPT is serving new use cases/workflows that weren't going to monetize via traditional Google ads, but I am not convinced by this theory. Anecdotally, me and people I know no longer start the information search process on Google at all. This is true for probably at least 10M affluent white collar workers who must have comprised a meaningful percent of Google's revenue given their high spend

My suspicion is that the cracks will begin to show in Google's business when OAI rolls out a real ad program.

Basically, my theory is that the problem is not the demand side, but the supply side. ChatGPT is eroding Google's demand growth, but the supply doesn't have anywhere to go

Once OAI rolls out a robust self-serve ad program, advertisers will re-allocate some amount of their budget away from Google to OAI, and this will become visible in Google's financials

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