首页人物观点加州始于淘金热（Gold Rush），或许将终于“黄金大撤离”（Golden Exit）。外界对拟议中的资产征收/没收税导致大量财富流出加州的情况，报道严重不足。几天前，一项针对受影响人群的私人调查显示，80%–90% 的受访者表示：他们已在 2025 年离开加州，或将在 2026 年、若该提案看似可能通过时离开。据估算，已有约 2–2.5 万亿美元资产流失，相当于每年约 200 亿美元的州财政收入，并可能使数十万个就业岗位面临风险。更少被报道的是，未被直接影响的人群也在加速外流——他们（而且理应）担心，这项法律会迅速从“亿万富豪”扩展到所有人。该倡议实际上赋予加州立法者权力：未来任何时间，只需多数表决，即可对任何人的“税后资产”实施征收/没收。这不是关于亿万富豪的问题，而是一种全新的“税制”，将从根本上摧毁美国的私有财产权。在这种设想下：所有私有财产都变成公共财产；即便你已缴税，资产在法律上也不再真正属于你，而是政府的，你只是“被允许借用”；立法者每年决定你能保留和临时使用什么。无数创始人、CEO 和商业领袖正积极考虑将公司迁出加州——不仅是科技、不是只限 AI、也不仅是亿万富豪；自 1847 年以来支撑加州繁荣的核心引擎正在松动。这项倡议如何可能瓦解美国（多米诺效应）：约 10 个州已明确或隐含禁止资产没收税；受影响的个人将迁往这些保障私有财产权的州；加州已面临每年 200–300 亿美元预算赤字、约 1 万亿美元未融资的公共雇员/工会养老金负债，以及约 5000 亿美元债务；州财政已难以继续借贷，或将通过更多资产征收来履约；资产征收将先从“百万富翁”开始，最终扩展至中产阶级，外流加剧；赤字、债务与失业将形成螺旋式恶化——“黄金大撤离”；美国尚无州宣布破产，但除加州外，数十个州也面临类似财政危机（承诺了无法兑现的未来福利，或长期存在盗用与浪费）；困境州最终将请求联邦援助，等同于“州债联邦化”；未陷入危机的州将表示“够了”，当地个人可能拒缴联邦税（为何为他人的错误买单？），部分州甚至可能尝试脱离联邦，从而引发宪政与社会危机。这或许听起来夸张，但在部分州、对部分人选择性削弱私有财产权，其连锁反应显而易见。我不是亿万富豪，这项加州法案也不直接影响我；但我关心国家和加州，希望两者都能繁荣。加州确有需要支持与援助的人群，不平等也许需要纠正，但消除私有财产权是错误之路。可优先考虑的替代方案：在3500 亿美元年预算下，削减盗用严重、对公民几乎无益的项目，每年或可节省约 500 亿美元；若需增税，可对以未实现资本利得作抵押的贷款征税（反对较少），取消部分升值资产的免税滚动（地产行业或反对），继承环节引入成本基础调整（部分反对但多数支持），可带来数百亿美元增量收入；将所有公共退休计划从“确定给付”改为“确定缴费”，消除 1 万亿美元以上的未融资退休负债，这将成为加州最需要的“泄压阀”。我们必须在不分裂、不摧毁州与国家的前提下，解决真正的问题。抛开修辞，这些就是事实。 California started with the Gold Rush and might end with the Golden Exit. it has been underreported how much wealth has left CA because of the asset seizure tax being proposed. a private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80-90% surveyed said they have already left CA in 2025 or will leave in 2026 if the ballot measure looks likely to pass. $2-2.5T of assets gone, representing about $20B of annual revenue for the state government. and likely hundreds of thousands of jobs now at risk. less reported is the bigger exodus underway from folks who are NOT directly affected but worry (as they should) that this law will quickly transition from billionaires to everyone else... the initiative actually gives CA legislators the right to take anyone's post-tax assets anytime in the future based on a majority vote. this isn't about billionaires. it's a new "tax system" that simply destroys private property rights in America. all private property is now public property. even after paying your taxes, it's not legally your property anymore. it's the government's, you're just borrowing it. legislators will decide what you get to keep and temporarily use each year. countless founders, CEOs, and other business leaders are actively looking to move their companies out of state. not just tech, not just AI, not just billionaires, but the core engine of California's prosperity since 1847 is unraveling. and here is how this initiative risks unraveling America: - ~10 states have explicit or implicit prohibitions against an asset seizure tax... - individuals affected in CA (and other states trying to do the same) will move to these states that endow private property rights. - CA already has a $20-30B annual budget deficit, an unfunded ~$1T pension liability for public employees/unions, and $500B of debt outstanding. the state can not afford to borrow much more and will launch more asset seizures to meet its obligations. - asset seizures will first transition to "millionaires" and eventually to the entire middle class as more asset seizures drive more people to leave the state. - the deficit, debt, and job loss will spiral. the Golden Exit. - no US state has ever declared bankruptcy. in addition to CA, dozens of other states face similar fiscal crises - legislators promised future benefits that can't be paid or theft and waste have been allowed to run rampant and unabated for years. - struggling states will eventually request federal government assistance, as they always have in times of fiscal crisis, effectively "federalizing state debt". - states not in crisis will declare "enough is enough", individuals in those states will refuse to pay their federal taxes (why pay for other people's mistakes?), some states may try to secede from the Union, and a constitutional and civil crisis will erupt. this may seem far-fetched but it is the obvious domino effect of selectively deleting private property rights for some people in some states. i am not a billionaire and this CA bill does not affect me, but i care about the country and the state of CA. i want both to thrive. it's obvious that there are people in CA in desperate need of support and assistance, and inequities may exist that need to be rectified, but eliminating private property rights is the wrong path for everyone. a few alternatives to consider first: 1) with a $350B annual budget, CA can cut programs that result in theft and little-to-no benefit for citizens. $50B per year is likely recoverable. 2) if more taxes are needed, tax loans against unrealized capital gains (very few objections will arise), eliminate tax-free rollover of certain appreciated assets (real estate industry will fight), create a step up in basis on inheritance (some will fight but most will support). likely $10Bs of incremental revenue can be realized. 3) restructure all public retirement programs from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution. eliminating the unfunded retirement liabilities ($1T+) will be the release valve on the future the state so desperately needs. we must address what ails us without dividing and destroying our state, our nation, our home. ignore the rhetoric, these are the facts.

加州始于淘金热（Gold Rush），或许将终于“黄金大撤离”（Golden Exit）。外界对拟议中的资产征收/没收税导致大量财富流出加州的情况，报道严重不足。几天前，一项针对受影响人群的私人调查显示，80%–90% 的受访者表示：他们已在 2025 年离开加州，或将在 2026 年、若该提案看似可能通过时离开。据估算，已有约 2–2.5 万亿美元资产流失，相当于每年约 200 亿美元的州财政收入，并可能使数十万个就业岗位面临风险。更少被报道的是，未被直接影响的人群也在加速外流——他们（而且理应）担心，这项法律会迅速从“亿万富豪”扩展到所有人。该倡议实际上赋予加州立法者权力：未来任何时间，只需多数表决，即可对任何人的“税后资产”实施征收/没收。这不是关于亿万富豪的问题，而是一种全新的“税制”，将从根本上摧毁美国的私有财产权。在这种设想下：所有私有财产都变成公共财产；即便你已缴税，资产在法律上也不再真正属于你，而是政府的，你只是“被允许借用”；立法者每年决定你能保留和临时使用什么。无数创始人、CEO 和商业领袖正积极考虑将公司迁出加州——不仅是科技、不是只限 AI、也不仅是亿万富豪；自 1847 年以来支撑加州繁荣的核心引擎正在松动。这项倡议如何可能瓦解美国（多米诺效应）：约 10 个州已明确或隐含禁止资产没收税；受影响的个人将迁往这些保障私有财产权的州；加州已面临每年 200–300 亿美元预算赤字、约 1 万亿美元未融资的公共雇员/工会养老金负债，以及约 5000 亿美元债务；州财政已难以继续借贷，或将通过更多资产征收来履约；资产征收将先从“百万富翁”开始，最终扩展至中产阶级，外流加剧；赤字、债务与失业将形成螺旋式恶化——“黄金大撤离”；美国尚无州宣布破产，但除加州外，数十个州也面临类似财政危机（承诺了无法兑现的未来福利，或长期存在盗用与浪费）；困境州最终将请求联邦援助，等同于“州债联邦化”；未陷入危机的州将表示“够了”，当地个人可能拒缴联邦税（为何为他人的错误买单？），部分州甚至可能尝试脱离联邦，从而引发宪政与社会危机。这或许听起来夸张，但在部分州、对部分人选择性削弱私有财产权，其连锁反应显而易见。我不是亿万富豪，这项加州法案也不直接影响我；但我关心国家和加州，希望两者都能繁荣。加州确有需要支持与援助的人群，不平等也许需要纠正，但消除私有财产权是错误之路。可优先考虑的替代方案：在3500 亿美元年预算下，削减盗用严重、对公民几乎无益的项目，每年或可节省约 500 亿美元；若需增税，可对以未实现资本利得作抵押的贷款征税（反对较少），取消部分升值资产的免税滚动（地产行业或反对），继承环节引入成本基础调整（部分反对但多数支持），可带来数百亿美元增量收入；将所有公共退休计划从“确定给付”改为“确定缴费”，消除 1 万亿美元以上的未融资退休负债，这将成为加州最需要的“泄压阀”。我们必须在不分裂、不摧毁州与国家的前提下，解决真正的问题。抛开修辞，这些就是事实。 California started with the Gold Rush and might end with the Golden Exit. it has been underreported how much wealth has left CA because of the asset seizure tax being proposed. a private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80-90% surveyed said they have already left CA in 2025 or will leave in 2026 if the ballot measure looks likely to pass. $2-2.5T of assets gone, representing about $20B of annual revenue for the state government. and likely hundreds of thousands of jobs now at risk. less reported is the bigger exodus underway from folks who are NOT directly affected but worry (as they should) that this law will quickly transition from billionaires to everyone else... the initiative actually gives CA legislators the right to take anyone's post-tax assets anytime in the future based on a majority vote. this isn't about billionaires. it's a new "tax system" that simply destroys private property rights in America. all private property is now public property. even after paying your taxes, it's not legally your property anymore. it's the government's, you're just borrowing it. legislators will decide what you get to keep and temporarily use each year. countless founders, CEOs, and other business leaders are actively looking to move their companies out of state. not just tech, not just AI, not just billionaires, but the core engine of California's prosperity since 1847 is unraveling. and here is how this initiative risks unraveling America: - ~10 states have explicit or implicit prohibitions against an asset seizure tax... - individuals affected in CA (and other states trying to do the same) will move to these states that endow private property rights. - CA already has a $20-30B annual budget deficit, an unfunded ~$1T pension liability for public employees/unions, and $500B of debt outstanding. the state can not afford to borrow much more and will launch more asset seizures to meet its obligations. - asset seizures will first transition to "millionaires" and eventually to the entire middle class as more asset seizures drive more people to leave the state. - the deficit, debt, and job loss will spiral. the Golden Exit. - no US state has ever declared bankruptcy. in addition to CA, dozens of other states face similar fiscal crises - legislators promised future benefits that can't be paid or theft and waste have been allowed to run rampant and unabated for years. - struggling states will eventually request federal government assistance, as they always have in times of fiscal crisis, effectively "federalizing state debt". - states not in crisis will declare "enough is enough", individuals in those states will refuse to pay their federal taxes (why pay for other people's mistakes?), some states may try to secede from the Union, and a constitutional and civil crisis will erupt. this may seem far-fetched but it is the obvious domino effect of selectively deleting private property rights for some people in some states. i am not a billionaire and this CA bill does not affect me, but i care about the country and the state of CA. i want both to thrive. it's obvious that there are people in CA in desperate need of support and assistance, and inequities may exist that need to be rectified, but eliminating private property rights is the wrong path for everyone. a few alternatives to consider first: 1) with a $350B annual budget, CA can cut programs that result in theft and little-to-no benefit for citizens. $50B per year is likely recoverable. 2) if more taxes are needed, tax loans against unrealized capital gains (very few objections will arise), eliminate tax-free rollover of certain appreciated assets (real estate industry will fight), create a step up in basis on inheritance (some will fight but most will support). likely $10Bs of incremental revenue can be realized. 3) restructure all public retirement programs from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution. eliminating the unfunded retirement liabilities ($1T+) will be the release valve on the future the state so desperately needs. we must address what ails us without dividing and destroying our state, our nation, our home. ignore the rhetoric, these are the facts.

david friedbergohalo.com

2026/01/15 08:26 UTC

观点原文

加州始于淘金热（Gold Rush），或许将终于“黄金大撤离”（Golden Exit）。

外界对拟议中的资产征收/没收税导致大量财富流出加州的情况，报道严重不足。

几天前，一项针对受影响人群的私人调查显示，80%–90% 的受访者表示：他们已在 2025 年离开加州，或将在 2026 年、若该提案看似可能通过时离开。

据估算，已有约 2–2.5 万亿美元资产流失，相当于每年约 200 亿美元的州财政收入，并可能使数十万个就业岗位面临风险。

更少被报道的是，未被直接影响的人群也在加速外流——他们（而且理应）担心，这项法律会迅速从“亿万富豪”扩展到所有人。

该倡议实际上赋予加州立法者权力：未来任何时间，只需多数表决，即可对任何人的“税后资产”实施征收/没收。这不是关于亿万富豪的问题，而是一种全新的“税制”，将从根本上摧毁美国的私有财产权。

在这种设想下：所有私有财产都变成公共财产；即便你已缴税，资产在法律上也不再真正属于你，而是政府的，你只是“被允许借用”；

立法者每年决定你能保留和临时使用什么。

无数创始人、CEO 和商业领袖正积极考虑将公司迁出加州——不仅是科技、不是只限 AI、也不仅是亿万富豪；自 1847 年以来支撑加州繁荣的核心引擎正在松动。

这项倡议如何可能瓦解美国（多米诺效应）：

约 10 个州已明确或隐含禁止资产没收税；

受影响的个人将迁往这些保障私有财产权的州；

加州已面临每年 200–300 亿美元预算赤字、约 1 万亿美元未融资的公共雇员/工会养老金负债，以及约 5000 亿美元债务；州财政已难以继续借贷，或将通过更多资产征收来履约；

资产征收将先从“百万富翁”开始，最终扩展至中产阶级，外流加剧；

赤字、债务与失业将形成螺旋式恶化——“黄金大撤离”；

美国尚无州宣布破产，但除加州外，数十个州也面临类似财政危机（承诺了无法兑现的未来福利，或长期存在盗用与浪费）；

困境州最终将请求联邦援助，等同于“州债联邦化”；

未陷入危机的州将表示“够了”，当地个人可能拒缴联邦税（为何为他人的错误买单？），部分州甚至可能尝试脱离联邦，从而引发宪政与社会危机。

这或许听起来夸张，但在部分州、对部分人选择性削弱私有财产权，其连锁反应显而易见。

我不是亿万富豪，这项加州法案也不直接影响我；但我关心国家和加州，希望两者都能繁荣。加州确有需要支持与援助的人群，不平等也许需要纠正，但消除私有财产权是错误之路。

可优先考虑的替代方案：

在3500 亿美元年预算下，削减盗用严重、对公民几乎无益的项目，每年或可节省约 500 亿美元；

若需增税，可对以未实现资本利得作抵押的贷款征税（反对较少），取消部分升值资产的免税滚动（地产行业或反对），继承环节引入成本基础调整（部分反对但多数支持），可带来数百亿美元增量收入；

将所有公共退休计划从“确定给付”改为“确定缴费”，消除 1 万亿美元以上的未融资退休负债，这将成为加州最需要的“泄压阀”。

我们必须在不分裂、不摧毁州与国家的前提下，解决真正的问题。抛开修辞，这些就是事实。

California started with the Gold Rush and might end with the Golden Exit.

it has been underreported how much wealth has left CA because of the asset seizure tax being proposed.

a private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80-90% surveyed said they have already left CA in 2025 or will leave in 2026 if the ballot measure looks likely to pass.

$2-2.5T of assets gone, representing about $20B of annual revenue for the state government. and likely hundreds of thousands of jobs now at risk.

less reported is the bigger exodus underway from folks who are NOT directly affected but worry (as they should) that this law will quickly transition from billionaires to everyone else...

the initiative actually gives CA legislators the right to take anyone's post-tax assets anytime in the future based on a majority vote. this isn't about billionaires. it's a new "tax system" that simply destroys private property rights in America.

all private property is now public property.

even after paying your taxes, it's not legally your property anymore. it's the government's, you're just borrowing it.

legislators will decide what you get to keep and temporarily use each year.

countless founders, CEOs, and other business leaders are actively looking to move their companies out of state. not just tech, not just AI, not just billionaires, but the core engine of California's prosperity since 1847 is unraveling.

and here is how this initiative risks unraveling America:

~10 states have explicit or implicit prohibitions against an asset seizure tax...
individuals affected in CA (and other states trying to do the same) will move to these states that endow private property rights.
CA already has a $20-30B annual budget deficit, an unfunded ~$1T pension liability for public employees/unions, and $500B of debt outstanding. the state can not afford to borrow much more and will launch more asset seizures to meet its obligations.
asset seizures will first transition to "millionaires" and eventually to the entire middle class as more asset seizures drive more people to leave the state.
the deficit, debt, and job loss will spiral. the Golden Exit.
no US state has ever declared bankruptcy. in addition to CA, dozens of other states face similar fiscal crises - legislators promised future benefits that can't be paid or theft and waste have been allowed to run rampant and unabated for years.
struggling states will eventually request federal government assistance, as they always have in times of fiscal crisis, effectively "federalizing state debt".
states not in crisis will declare "enough is enough", individuals in those states will refuse to pay their federal taxes (why pay for other people's mistakes?), some states may try to secede from the Union, and a constitutional and civil crisis will erupt.

this may seem far-fetched but it is the obvious domino effect of selectively deleting private property rights for some people in some states.

i am not a billionaire and this CA bill does not affect me, but i care about the country and the state of CA. i want both to thrive. it's obvious that there are people in CA in desperate need of support and assistance, and inequities may exist that need to be rectified, but eliminating private property rights is the wrong path for everyone.

a few alternatives to consider first:

with a $350B annual budget, CA can cut programs that result in theft and little-to-no benefit for citizens. $50B per year is likely recoverable.
if more taxes are needed, tax loans against unrealized capital gains (very few objections will arise), eliminate tax-free rollover of certain appreciated assets (real estate industry will fight), create a step up in basis on inheritance (some will fight but most will support). likely $10Bs of incremental revenue can be realized.
restructure all public retirement programs from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution. eliminating the unfunded retirement liabilities ($1T+) will be the release valve on the future the state so desperately needs.

we must address what ails us without dividing and destroying our state, our nation, our home.

ignore the rhetoric, these are the facts.

ABAB AI 解读

这段文字本质上是一份“制度级风险预警书”，而不是情绪化的政治宣言。它的核心不是“是否该向富人多收税”，而是一个更深层的问题：当私有财产权的确定性被削弱，资本社会会发生什么系统性反应。我分六层解读。

一、核心主张在警告什么？

不是税率高低，而是“所有权不再确定”

作者真正的恐惧点只有一个：一旦税后资产仍可能被未来立法随时征收，私有财产在法律上就不再“属于个人”。

这和“提高所得税”“提高资本利得税”完全不是一个量级的问题。

传统税制：

你知道规则
你能计算风险
你能决定是否留下

资产没收型制度：

规则可被追溯或扩展
不确定性无法定价
唯一理性选择是提前离开

资本最害怕的不是“贵”，而是“不可预测”。

二、为什么会出现“大规模外流”的判断？

文中提到的 80–90% 离开/准备离开，逻辑上并不夸张，因为：

1️⃣ 资本是“选项型存在”

人可以忍耐
企业和资产可以迁移

当某个地区引入制度级不确定性时，资本的反应不是抗议，而是：行使退出权（Exit），而不是发声（Voice）—阿尔伯特·赫希曼（Hirschman）

2️⃣ 外流并非只发生在“被征收者”

作者特别强调一个被忽视的现象：真正的大规模外流，来自“尚未被影响、但能预见未来的人”。

这在历史上反复出现：

法国 75% 富人税
阿根廷外汇管制
委内瑞拉资产冻结

第一批走的永远是：

创始人
企业主
决策者
而不是被宣传中的“极端富豪”。

三、所谓“黄金大撤离（Golden Exit）”的真实机制

作者并非在渲染情绪，而是在描述一个财政—人口—资本的负反馈循环：

高价值纳税人和企业外流
税基缩小，财政缺口扩大
政府为履约 → 进一步扩大征收范围
征收对象从“亿万富豪” → “百万富豪” → “中产阶级”
外流加速，形成螺旋

这不是意识形态，而是数学问题。

四、为什么说这是“制度问题”，而非“加州特例”？

作者把问题上升到美国层面，是因为：

1️⃣ 州际竞争是真实存在的

美国不是单一财政体
各州之间是财产权制度的竞争市场

一旦：

A 州弱化私有财产权
B 州明确保护
资本与人才的迁移方向是确定的。

2️⃣ “联邦化州债”的担忧并非空穴来风

历史上：每次州或地方财政危机最终都会转化为联邦层面的兜底或再分配

这会引发两个后果：

财政纪律被削弱
守规矩的州开始反抗

作者描绘的“拒缴联邦税、分离主义”并非预言，而是指出制度张力的极端结果。

五、为什么作者强调“这不是仇富”？

这是一段非常关键的自我定位：“我不是亿万富豪，这项法案也不影响我。”

他的逻辑是：

今天针对 A
明天针对 B
最终没有人能确认“自己的安全边界”

从制度经济学角度看，这叫：选择性剥夺权利，会削弱所有人的权利可信度

六、替代方案的真实含义：

问题在“结构”，不在“资源不足”

作者提出的三条替代路径，核心思想高度一致：

削减无效支出 → 解决效率问题
调整税制而非没收资产 → 保留可预期性
重构公共养老金体系 → 解决长期负债黑洞

无论是否同意细节，这三点都指向一个共识：财政问题应通过“制度重构”解决，而不是通过“削弱所有权”解决。

七、终极解读（一句话）

这不是一篇为富人辩护的文章，而是一份警告：当一个社会开始动摇“私有财产权不可侵犯”的底座时，资本、人才与信任会比税收流失得更快。

你可以反对作者的结论，但不能忽视他提出的制度级风险问题。真正需要讨论的，不是立场，而是：哪些底线一旦被跨越，将不可逆转。

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