@MartinShkreli 对“金融公司会迅速用 AI 替代员工”这种叙事持怀疑态度。 “如果你在工作中变得更高效,公司不会说,‘哦,那我们把你裁了,省下这笔钱。’ 公司本来就因为你在岗而赚钱。你变得更高效,意味着原本的利润率很可能在提高。” “作为人类,我们希望雇佣其他人,也希望变得更有生产力。没人愿意无谓地养人,但现在有一种想法是——机器可以做你的工作。我们公司就有这种情况。我会对 Chris 说,‘我写了个程序可以做你的工作。好消息是,你不用再做这个了,但现在有一项新的工作等着你。’ 于是公司效率翻了一倍。这很棒。” “如果那个人每天因此多出几个小时,那太好了。他可以去见潜在的招聘对象,或者去见潜在客户。总有事情可以做。” “在金融行业,AI 的采用速度一直很慢,而且可能会继续如此。金融行业的人习惯固守自己的方式,这既是好事也是坏事。如果你是卖软件的,一旦他们习惯了你的系统,你会很开心。但某些行业确实有一种很强的逆向思维文化。我认为在标普500企业中,普遍存在一种态度:‘技术——我们最终会用的。’” .@MartinShkreli is skeptical of the narrative that finance companies will rush to replace employees with AI. “If you become more productive at work, the company doesn’t say, ‘Oh, let’s get rid of you and save whatever amount of money.' They’re already making money with you employed. The fact that you’re becoming more productive means that whatever the margins were, they’re probably improving.” “We as humans want to employ other humans, and we want to be productive. Nobody wants to needlessly employ people, but I think that there's this idea of - a machine can do your job. We have this at my office. I say, ‘Chris, I wrote a program to do your job. Good news, you don’t have to do it anymore, but there’s a new thing you have to do now.’ And our company just got twice as efficient. It’s wonderful.” “If that person has a couple more hours a day now, great. They can go meet with potential recruits or go meet with some potential customers. There’s always something you can do.” “In finance, adoption of AI has been very slow, and it’s probably going to stay that way. Finance people are stuck in their ways, which is a good thing and a bad thing. If you’re selling software to them, once they get stuck in their way, you’re very happy. But there tends to be a heavy dose of contrarianism in certain industries. And I’d say across the S&P 500, there’s this sort of, ‘technology - we’ll use it eventually.’”
目录
观点原文
@MartinShkreli 对“金融公司会迅速用 AI 替代员工”这种叙事持怀疑态度。
“如果你在工作中变得更高效,公司不会说,‘哦,那我们把你裁了,省下这笔钱。’ 公司本来就因为你在岗而赚钱。你变得更高效,意味着原本的利润率很可能在提高。”
“作为人类,我们希望雇佣其他人,也希望变得更有生产力。没人愿意无谓地养人,但现在有一种想法是——机器可以做你的工作。我们公司就有这种情况。我会对 Chris 说,‘我写了个程序可以做你的工作。好消息是,你不用再做这个了,但现在有一项新的工作等着你。’ 于是公司效率翻了一倍。这很棒。”
“如果那个人每天因此多出几个小时,那太好了。他可以去见潜在的招聘对象,或者去见潜在客户。总有事情可以做。”
“在金融行业,AI 的采用速度一直很慢,而且可能会继续如此。金融行业的人习惯固守自己的方式,这既是好事也是坏事。如果你是卖软件的,一旦他们习惯了你的系统,你会很开心。但某些行业确实有一种很强的逆向思维文化。我认为在标普500企业中,普遍存在一种态度:‘技术——我们最终会用的。’”
.@MartinShkreli is skeptical of the narrative that finance companies will rush to replace employees with AI.
“If you become more productive at work, the company doesn’t say, ‘Oh, let’s get rid of you and save whatever amount of money.' They’re already making money with you employed. The fact that you’re becoming more productive means that whatever the margins were, they’re probably improving.”
“We as humans want to employ other humans, and we want to be productive. Nobody wants to needlessly employ people, but I think that there's this idea of - a machine can do your job. We have this at my office. I say, ‘Chris, I wrote a program to do your job. Good news, you don’t have to do it anymore, but there’s a new thing you have to do now.’ And our company just got twice as efficient. It’s wonderful.”
“If that person has a couple more hours a day now, great. They can go meet with potential recruits or go meet with some potential customers. There’s always something you can do.”
“In finance, adoption of AI has been very slow, and it’s probably going to stay that way. Finance people are stuck in their ways, which is a good thing and a bad thing. If you’re selling software to them, once they get stuck in their way, you’re very happy. But there tends to be a heavy dose of contrarianism in certain industries. And I’d say across the S&P 500, there’s this sort of, ‘technology - we’ll use it eventually.’”
ABAB AI 解读
这段话非常有价值,因为它直接挑战了一个主流叙事:
“AI 会大规模取代白领工作”
Shkreli 的观点不是情绪判断,而是基于企业行为逻辑的判断。我们做一次结构级解读。
《AI 不会立即替代金融员工:企业行为逻辑与效率悖论》
一、效率提升 ≠ 裁员冲动
他说:如果你变得更高效,公司不会马上裁你
这是一个关键经济逻辑
企业目标不是“减少员工”,企业目标是:最大化利润
如果:
- 员工变得更高效
- 成本不增加
- 产出提升
那么:利润率提高
为什么要裁掉能创造更多价值的人?
企业不会因为效率提高而自动减少人手,企业通常会:
- 扩大业务
- 增加客户
- 开拓新产品
- 提升市场份额
这叫“效率扩张效应”
二、历史验证:技术升级往往先扩张,再替代
举例:
- Excel 没让会计消失
- Bloomberg 没让分析师消失
- 互联网没让银行消失
它们让这些行业:
- 规模扩大
- 效率提升
- 利润率变化
只有在:
- 市场需求饱和
- 边际扩张空间耗尽
技术替代才真正压缩岗位
三、金融行业的特殊性
Shkreli 说金融 adoption 很慢。这是正确的。
金融行业有三大特征:
1️⃣ 高监管
2️⃣ 高责任
3️⃣ 高风险
金融决策错误成本极高,所以:
- 保守是理性选择
- 新技术需要长时间验证
- 文化惯性非常强
这解释了为什么大型银行系统几十年不换核心系统
这不是愚蠢,是风险控制
四、“机器可以做你工作”的误解
他说:“我写程序替代你做原工作,但你去做新工作”
这句话的真正含义是:技术通常改变岗位内容,而不是消灭岗位本身
工作是任务集合,AI替代的是:任务中的一部分,但组织会重新配置人类时间。
这在组织行为学里叫:任务重组,而非岗位消失
五、真正的变量是“需求是否扩张”
如果效率提高,企业会问:“我们现在能做更多什么?”
只要:
- 市场还有空间
- 利润还能扩张
员工通常会被转移到更高价值活动
只有在:
- 市场增长停滞
- 竞争激烈
- 利润压缩
企业才会利用AI作为裁员工具
六、VC 投资逻辑:资本押人,不押算力
风险投资人不会投资“无主机器”,他们投资:
- 责任承担者
- 决策者
- 资源整合者
算力可以生成代码,但不能:
- 组织团队
- 应对监管
- 承担法律责任
- 代表公司承担风险
资本最终押的是“人”
七、S&P 500 的真实文化
大型企业的技术 adoption 路径是:
1️⃣ 观察
2️⃣ 小规模试点
3️⃣ 部门级部署
4️⃣ 多年后全面替换
这不是科技公司的节奏,这是成熟资本的节奏
媒体喜欢讲“革命”,企业更喜欢“渐进”
八、但他的观点也有局限
这里需要高阶判断,Shkreli 的逻辑成立有前提:
- 市场需求持续增长
- 企业愿意扩张
- 监管环境稳定
如果未来出现:
- 长期低增长
- 高利率压利润
- 资本市场收缩
那效率提升就会转化为:成本削减,这时裁员会加速
九、真正的核心问题
AI 是否替代就业,取决于三个变量:
1️⃣ 市场增长速度
2️⃣ 资本成本
3️⃣ 监管环境
不是取决于技术能力,技术能力早就可以替代很多岗位,问题在于:企业是否有动力这样做
十、终极一句话
AI 本身不会自动摧毁工作。但在低增长、高竞争、利润压缩的环境下,AI 会成为削减人力的工具
企业不是情绪驱动,企业是利润驱动
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