Binance Founder CZ: Most Launched Projects Fail According to Industry Norms
Binance founder CZ stated in the program "When Shift Happens" that the reason many launched projects disappoint investors is that, statistically, most projects in any market or industry ultimately fail. He cited the internet as an example: millions of companies emerged, but only a few hundred were truly successful, with even fewer having significant impact. The artificial intelligence sector may exhibit a similar distribution, where a few succeed greatly. Regarding tokens being open to the public and retail investors potentially incurring losses early on, he disagreed with using accredited investor thresholds to block ordinary people, stating that it would deprive some individuals of early return opportunities. His personal philosophy is to provide channels and education, allowing investors to make their own decisions.
He also mentioned that retail investors can profit in the crypto market, but all parties need to maintain balance. Projects that attract funds through false promises, excessive promotion, or easily misunderstood language may profit in the short term but harm users in the long run. The industry should encourage founders to act responsibly, help users assess projects, reduce reliance on hype and marketing, focus more on fundamentals, and gradually improve information disclosure. Projects that rely on excessive marketing for short-term gains are unlikely to last; those that remain will be robust platforms with solid fundamentals, and the market itself will filter them.
In market mechanisms, buyers are retail liquidity treating exchange listings as quality endorsements, while sellers view listing windows as exit channels for early token holders. Event-driven inquiries arise when projects experience pullbacks after listing, prompting questions directed at founders. Beneficiaries are trading venues that can earn fees and listing premiums regardless of project success or failure, while those under pressure are late buyers who misinterpret "being listed on Binance" as a fundamental endorsement. Funds rotate back to platforms that can generate fees and retain users.
In public discussions, many spot and Alpha listing targets in 2025 recorded significant pullbacks, making "listing equals success" a continuing controversy.
Source: Public Information
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CZ positions exchanges as "shelves providing opportunities for hardworking projects" rather than selective funds. As Binance listings transitioned from rare milestones to high-frequency liquidity events, price discovery shifted to four hours post-announcement and decentralized exchanges (DEX), with spot openings often reflecting already priced tokens. He opposes accredited investor thresholds, equating it to transferring risk pricing authority to retail education rather than license screening; this contrasts with the traditional U.S. private placement exemption structure and aligns with his narrative of "open participation" even after facing compliance-related imprisonment.
The capital path involves projects using marketing to secure listings, listings to attract retail buyers, and buyers to facilitate early institutional exits. Exchanges collect trading fees without bearing portfolio returns. The analogy of hundreds of internet companies being eliminated to leave a few giants overlooks the fact that internet listings have ongoing revenue audits, while most tokens lack synchronized maturity in revenue, users, and unlocking schedules at launch. He describes information disclosure as gradually improving, implying that the selection mechanism still primarily relies on price declines rather than pre-listing thresholds.
Benchmarks include the delisting of numerous Nasdaq small-cap stocks, the concentration of millions of apps in the App Store, and a few projects in venture capital portfolios covering all losses. AI is invoked as a current example of the same distribution. The industry phase has shifted from "listing equals victory" to "listing equals liquidity test"; the broader the shelf, the less it can be considered a fundamental basis.
Structural changes signify a transfer of pricing power. Quality pricing has reverted from exchange selection committees to market clearing. The mechanism of open participation has expanded both the numerator (number of participants) and the denominator (failed projects); excessive marketing discounts future fundamentals into current fees, with selection occurring after discount breakdowns. Platforms that remain are those that sell both trading and education while incorporating "most will fail" into user expectations.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- A shelf is not a rating; being listed only proves someone wants to sell.
- Open early participation equals opening early exposure to failure.
- The fundamental discounted by marketing has a maturity date that is the price itself.