The U.S. Senate passed the "Lindsey O. Graham Sanctions on Russia and Iran Act" with a vote of 86 to 11, authorizing the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, as well as countries that assist in evading energy sanctions. The bill must be passed by the House of Representatives and signed by the president to take effect.

The tariffs are not automatically imposed and are limited to the top five countries by oil or gas imports over the past 12 months, as well as the top five that assist in evading sanctions; exceptions may apply for those whose gas imports are less than 15% of Russian exports and have taken reduction measures. The sponsors identified the top five oil importers as China, India, Slovakia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan. An earlier version proposed a flat 500% tariff, which was reduced to a maximum of 100% in exchange for support from the White House and more co-sponsors. An amendment by Paul and Wyden to remove the tariff provisions was defeated 64 to 32, with nearly one-third of senators opposing granting new tariff powers to the White House.

The House has not yet scheduled a vote. Speaker Mike Johnson has been noncommittal about whether it will be put to a vote, attributing uncertainty to Democratic opposition; senior Democrats on the Foreign Affairs and Fundraising Committee criticized the text as unacceptable, calling it a prescription for higher tariffs and chaos. Some Republicans are also reluctant to expand presidential tariff powers or raise fuel prices before the midterm elections. The bill was not included in the agenda for the first week back in session, and some members have heard that it may be addressed the week of September 14, while others believe the vote could be delayed past the November 3 elections. If government spending short-term funding is extended to December, the session itself will also be unstable.

The legislation is named after the late Senator Graham, who announced an agreement with the White House on the text the day before his death. The sanctions also cover shadow fleets, Russian financial institutions, and the Yamal and Arctic LNG projects, and will extend sanctions on Iran until 2031. The president has indicated he will sign it if it reaches his desk, but the timing of implementation remains at his discretion. Officials dealing with Ukraine sanctions have already lobbied House members.

Buyers are bipartisan senators and Kyiv aiming to cut off Russian energy revenue; sellers are concerned about imposing additional tariffs on China and India and fear that rising oil prices will affect voters in the House. The event is driven by the election calendar, not new battlefield news. Beneficiaries are countries still able to buy Russian oil and the evasion networks before legislation, while those under pressure are the Senate majority that is writing secondary tariffs as a tool of war.

Source: Public Information