The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) estimates that by December 2025, there will be approximately 1.264 million employment-based green cards backlog, with around 997,000 applicants from India, accounting for about 79% of the top three categories of backlog. Indian applicants filing in January 2026 and later may face a potential wait of about 179 years for EB-2, about 38 years for EB-3, and about 4 to 5 years for EB-1.

Backlog by category: India EB-2 about 731,600, EB-3 about 213,400, EB-1 about 51,600. From April 2020 to December 2025, the total backlog for India increased by about 161,300, a rise of 19.3%; EB-3 increased by 51.1%, while EB-1 decreased by 28.3%. In comparison, estimates for China EB-2 are about 25 years, and for the Philippines EB-2 about 0.3 years.

The legal framework set by Congress in 1990 established an annual cap of about 140,000 employment-based green cards (including principal applicants and their families), with the nationality law 202(a) stipulating that no single country can receive more than 7% of the annual employment-based visas, approximately 10,000 cards, regardless of population and application volume. More than half of the quotas are often occupied by family members. H-1B holders can continue to extend their stay after I-140 approval and meeting conditions until their priority date arrives; the 179 years is an extrapolation of the current flow, not the expiration date of their passport.

The 7% cap divides populous countries and smaller countries into the same quota, while India's supply of tech labor far exceeds that slice, leading to a disconnect between approvals and card issuance. Reforms must be made by Congress to change the annual cap or eliminate the country limit, as the administration cannot unilaterally rewrite it.

The queue itself has become a constraint for employers in retaining talent and for job switching: without the green card in hand, changing employers and long-term planning are tied to the priority date.

In market terms, the buyers are U.S. employers wanting to retain Indian engineers, while the sellers are about 10,000 employment green cards available for India each year. The driving forces are the statutory quotas and country caps, which are rules rather than one-time events. Financially, this manifests as H-1B extension attorney fees, retention premium salaries, and talent flowing to Canada and other locations. The beneficiaries are those already in the queue and able to wait, while the pressured parties are new EB-2 applicants and their families.

Source: Public Information