Elon Musk retweeted a statistic from a prediction market platform stating that the global population aged 65 and older has surpassed the number of children aged 5 and under for the first time, writing "humanity is dying." This assessment comes from the U.S. Census Bureau report "An Aging World: 2025," indicating that this crossover occurred between 2020 and 2025, marking the first time on record.

The Census Bureau estimates that by 2025, there will be approximately 852 million people aged 65 and older globally, accounting for 10.5% of the world population, which is about 8.13 billion. By 2060, the elderly population is expected to rise to about 2 billion, making up nearly one-fifth and approximately 55% of the net increase in the global population during that period. The world population is projected to grow from 8.13 billion to about 10.23 billion during the same time frame.

Changes in fertility rates are occurring more rapidly than expected a decade ago. In 2023, over 71% of the global population lives in countries where the total fertility rate is at or below the replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman), compared to 45% in 2013. Both China and India have fallen below the replacement level, with Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam also crossing this line after 2013. In 2023, China's fertility rate dropped to about 1.06.

Longevity and low birth rates are both contributing factors. The Census Bureau attributes this crossover to declining mortality rates allowing more people to live to old age, coupled with persistently low birth rates preventing younger cohorts from replenishing the population. By 2025, Japan's population aged 65 and older is expected to account for about 29.7%, making it one of the oldest economies; the U.S. will have an elderly population share of about 18.9%, ranking around 48th globally, but due to faster aging in other countries, it may drop to around 110th by 2060. Africa's elderly population is expected to grow from about 60 million to 249 million, surpassing Europe's approximately 214 million by then.

Musk has repeatedly referred to low birth rates as a civilization-level risk, claiming it poses a greater danger than climate issues, and has emphasized that global fertility is approaching or falling below the replacement line. The United Nations' medium variant in the World Population Prospects still predicts that the global population will peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, which is not the same as an "immediate extinction" scenario; the crossover pertains to age structure, not an immediate decline in total population.

In market mechanisms, buyers are pension funds, healthcare, and long-term care financing, while sellers are the future working-age population. Funding is shifting from child education and housing to elderly healthcare and caregiving labor. Beneficiaries include longevity-related pharmaceuticals, caregiving robots, and economies capable of importing working-age immigrants; those under pressure include pay-as-you-go pension systems, real estate anchored by young consumers, and the expansion model of higher education. This is driven by demographic structure, not a single-day trading event.

Additionally, the United Nations has another estimate that by around 2063, the population aged 65 and older will exceed the number of children under 15; the crossover of those aged 80 and older exceeding those under 5 will occur even later. The Census Bureau's comparison this time is between those aged 65+ and those aged 5 and under, which is a narrower threshold, thus the crossover appears earlier.

Source: Public Information