Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, a Bitcoin treasury company, stated that the four-year cycle has been broken and that we may currently be in an unprecedented supercycle and return scenario for Bitcoin. His reasoning is that the dollar and fiat currencies are depreciating at a faster rate, and the returns of Bitcoin relative to fiat currencies will not slow down, as more people view fiat currencies as depreciating.

Cole previously worked in traditional government bond portfolios before shifting to corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Strive has expanded its Bitcoin holdings by about four times during what he describes as a bear market, with an inventory reported at approximately 21,356 BTC. He confirmed this with the price of gold in Bitcoin terms: gold peaked in December 2024, while the dollar price rose until October 2025; gold bottomed in February 2026, earlier than the dollar's low in July, followed by a simultaneous breakout for both. The weekly net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $1.92 billion, the highest since October 2025. Bitcoin briefly closed at around $77,387 within a week, rising approximately $14,300 in that week.

The CEO of Bitwise has also stated that the four-year cycle is dead, arguing that the rhythm of “three years up, one year down” was broken by last year's decline. Cole lists a weak dollar, ongoing monetary expansion, and the premium on scarce assets in the AI era as the macro backdrop for this cycle. He anticipates that demand for scarce assets will continue to support Bitcoin over the next 12 to 18 months. The Fear and Greed Index briefly rose to 78, nearing extreme greed.

The four-year cycle is the calendar for halving traders; the supercycle is the narrative of fiat currency depreciation written into the numerator. The company is issuing preferred shares to expand its holdings while using macro narratives to provide market cap storytelling for its positions. When a cycle is declared dead, it is often when inventory has already been bought in advance.

Mechanically, this is the treasury narrative hedging against the halving calendar. Buyers are those treating the company as a Bitcoin-leveraged stock and ETF subscription; sellers are cyclical traders still reducing positions according to the four-year rhythm. Funds are flowing from fiat cash and bond combinations into spot ETFs and listed company inventories. The beneficiaries are treasury companies that have already increased their positions at low levels; the pressured parties are accounts shorting with the expectation that 2026 will be a “down year.” The event-driven narrative is the CEO using the gold ratio and fiat depreciation to frame the recent rebound as the beginning of a new cycle.

Source: Public Information