Strive CEO Says Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle is Broken, Current Phase May Be an Unprecedented Supercycle
Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, a Bitcoin treasury company, stated that the four-year cycle has been broken and that we may currently be in an unprecedented supercycle and return scenario for Bitcoin. His reasoning is that the dollar and fiat currencies are depreciating at a faster rate, and the returns of Bitcoin relative to fiat currencies will not slow down, as more people view fiat currencies as depreciating.
Cole previously worked in traditional government bond portfolios before shifting to corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Strive has expanded its Bitcoin holdings by about four times during what he describes as a bear market, with an inventory reported at approximately 21,356 BTC. He confirmed this with the price of gold in Bitcoin terms: gold peaked in December 2024, while the dollar price rose until October 2025; gold bottomed in February 2026, earlier than the dollar's low in July, followed by a simultaneous breakout for both. The weekly net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $1.92 billion, the highest since October 2025. Bitcoin briefly closed at around $77,387 within a week, rising approximately $14,300 in that week.
The CEO of Bitwise has also stated that the four-year cycle is dead, arguing that the rhythm of “three years up, one year down” was broken by last year's decline. Cole lists a weak dollar, ongoing monetary expansion, and the premium on scarce assets in the AI era as the macro backdrop for this cycle. He anticipates that demand for scarce assets will continue to support Bitcoin over the next 12 to 18 months. The Fear and Greed Index briefly rose to 78, nearing extreme greed.
The four-year cycle is the calendar for halving traders; the supercycle is the narrative of fiat currency depreciation written into the numerator. The company is issuing preferred shares to expand its holdings while using macro narratives to provide market cap storytelling for its positions. When a cycle is declared dead, it is often when inventory has already been bought in advance.
Mechanically, this is the treasury narrative hedging against the halving calendar. Buyers are those treating the company as a Bitcoin-leveraged stock and ETF subscription; sellers are cyclical traders still reducing positions according to the four-year rhythm. Funds are flowing from fiat cash and bond combinations into spot ETFs and listed company inventories. The beneficiaries are treasury companies that have already increased their positions at low levels; the pressured parties are accounts shorting with the expectation that 2026 will be a “down year.” The event-driven narrative is the CEO using the gold ratio and fiat depreciation to frame the recent rebound as the beginning of a new cycle.
Source: Public Information
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Cole's position is that of a company owner buying Bitcoin, and the narrative must make the next accumulation seem like a non-high chase. Once the four-year cycle is broken, the pullback shifts from a "top signal" to "noise for entering a supercycle." The gold ratio is used as a leading indicator: dollar trends can be misleading, while gold comparisons reach a pause. His quadrupling of inventory during a bear market writes his viewpoint into stock; inventory then demands that the viewpoint cannot revert to a four-year cycle.
The capital path is a macro framework from government bond managers, combined with the preferred shares and merger expansions of listed companies. Strive uses securities financing to buy coins, and as coin prices rise, it boosts company valuations, which then support the next round of financing. ETF weekly inflows provide off-exchange buying pressure, reducing accusations of "only the crypto circle is taking over." The weak dollar narrative turns all fiat currency holders into potential buyers, eliminating the need to wait for a retail frenzy post-halving.
The analogy is MicroStrategy turning the company into a Bitcoin option, and the decade when gold pricing shifted from jewelry to central bank reserves. Bitwise claims the four-year cycle is dead for institutions but may still be alive for retail, acknowledging two different clocks. The current phase is a narrative switch: from the halving calendar to fiat depreciation and scarcity premiums. The success of this switch will be judged by whether treasury companies dare to increase their positions during the next pullback.
The structural judgment belongs to the transfer of pricing power. Bitcoin's pricing anchor shifts from supply shocks post-halving to the denominator of fiat purchasing power. The mechanism is: supply slows every four years, and if demand is framed as a continuous flight from fiat, the cycle length is extended by demand. Those declaring the cycle dead have usually already tied their balance sheets to the new anchor.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
First fill the inventory, then declare the old calendar void
Gold often bottoms earlier than dollar trends
The faster fiat depreciates, the more treasury companies will claim the cycle never ends