Bernstein Research Projects Prediction Market Annual Trading Volume to Reach Approximately $1 Trillion by 2030, Industry Annual Revenue Expected to Exceed $10 Billion
Bernstein Research predicts that the annual trading volume of prediction markets will expand from approximately $51 billion in 2025 at a nearly 80% compound annual growth rate, reaching about $1 trillion by 2030, with industry annual revenue expected to exceed $10 billion. The agency notes that the continuous expansion of contracts related to sports, crypto, politics, and macro events, along with improvements in regulatory and settlement infrastructure, is driving the transformation of prediction markets from a "niche" to a "systemic information asset."
The report also indicates that mainstream trading platforms Robinhood and Coinbase are expected to become core distribution channels in this space. Both platforms introduce event contract trading through their own applications and leverage their existing tens of millions of users and compliance frameworks to integrate prediction markets into a comprehensive asset framework of "stocks + crypto + event contracts," thereby gaining incremental trading commissions and user stickiness.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
1万亿美元级预测市场的远景，实质是“价格‑信息市场”的边界扩张：传统金融市场为公司与大宗商品定价，而预测市场为“事件的概率”定价。在数据透明度与计算能力提升的背景下，大量原本依赖主观判断的政治、选举、监管与经济结果，被逐步转化为可交易、可对冲的金融头寸，从而形成新的“风险—流动性”层。
从资本结构看，预测市场的爆炸式增长将冲击传统博彩与新闻叙事的定价权。当大众在Kalshi、Polymarket及Robinhood上“用真钱押注事件走向”，新闻标题的解释权重将被价格信号部分替代，信息市场与资本市场的交叉影响会显著加深。金融不再只是“后验的叙事”，而成为“先验的概率标尺”。
在更广泛的宏观结构中，这一趋势与“去赌场化金融化”并行：在监管逐渐承认合规事件合约的背景下，传统地下博彩与碎片化打赌正在被纳入受控、可分析的资本市场。Robinhood与Coinbase若成为主要入口，就不仅在赚取佣金，更在重构普通人对“不确定性—金融市场”的理解结构。预测市场从1万亿到更高的规模，实质是“未来本身被全面资产化”进程的金融化开端。