Coinbase announced that predictions of price drops and rises can now be traded. Users can select the cryptocurrency, time frame, and whether they believe the price will go up or down, with the crypto price market now live on the platform.

The product page indicates a 15-minute cycle. The company clarified in a follow-up post that futures and swaps are provided by Coinbase Financial Markets, which is a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the National Futures Association. Payouts depend on specific events, and trades may result in total loss; this does not constitute investment advice. It is not available in Nevada.

This is not the first time for time contracts. On June 16, 2026, Coinbase announced the launch of time-based predictions, allowing trading on future prices of assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Hype, with terms ranging from 15 minutes to a year. This post categorizes the same type of contracts into two directions: up or down, and places them separately in the real-time price market entry.

The underlying channel was opened earlier. On January 28, 2026, Coinbase opened the prediction market to U.S. users, with contracts listed and settled by Kalshi, and Coinbase Financial Markets acting as a broker. Orders can be placed using USD or USDC from existing accounts. At that time, it covered sports, politics, culture, and crypto. Kalshi is a licensed exchange, and Coinbase sells a portion of those contracts, adding brokerage fees on top of exchange fees.

CEO Brian Armstrong referred to the prediction market in January as a truth-seeking endeavor with skin in the game, where prices are determined by the crowd rather than a dealer. The June product collects the asset expiration prices for truth-seeking. The October 6 post no longer explains the rules, leaving the up or down and cycle choices to users.

This is a traffic entry for event contracts, not a spot issuance. Buyers are accounts betting on price increases, while sellers are betting on decreases, with settlements based on event outcomes. Coinbase collects brokerage fees, Kalshi collects exchange fees and handles settlements. Beneficiaries are users with existing compliant accounts who want to incorporate short-term views into the same application, along with two revenue channels. The pressured parties are those without U.S. licenses, relying solely on offshore binary contracts to capture the same batch of price orders.

Source: Public Information