Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has listed the bipartisan advancement of the CLARITY bill on September 15, the cryptocurrency market in October, and the next bull market as consecutive goals; this reflects a subjective outlook on policy and market rhythm, not confirmed events.

The expected vote on September 15 is for a cloture vote in the U.S. Senate regarding the advancement of the deliberation process, not the final legislative vote on the CLARITY bill. To overcome the procedural hurdle, the proposal still needs 60 votes in support, and subsequent coordination involves the Senate Agriculture Committee's version, text coordination between the two chambers, and final voting.

The bill has passed the House of Representatives with 294 votes in favor and 134 against; the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version in May with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. Bipartisan support at the committee stage does not automatically translate to the full chamber's 60-vote threshold.

Controversial points include whether stablecoin rewards could compete with bank deposits, jurisdictional boundaries for digital asset markets among regulatory agencies, and ethical clauses related to Trump’s cryptocurrency business. These disagreements previously prevented the Senate from completing the vote before the August recess.

The public prediction market prices the probability of the bill officially becoming law by the end of 2026 at about 16% to 17%, reflecting the market's differentiation between the procedural vote in September and the final legislative completion; this probability will fluctuate rapidly with amendments, partisan negotiations, and changes in the Senate agenda.

In market mechanics, buyers are spot investors betting on clear U.S. market structure rules, institutional capital expanding allocation, ETF funds, and cryptocurrency infrastructure companies, while sellers are those buying protection against legislative delays, tightening texts, or voting failures through options and short funds. Policy votes are event-driven; if the procedural vote passes, short-term funds may flow into exchanges, custody, compliant stablecoins, and mainstream tokens; if the 60-vote threshold cannot be crossed, regulatory uncertainty will continue to suppress U.S. business valuations and risk asset preferences.

Source: Public Information