Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl: Recent Buyers' Break-even Indicates Bitcoin Has Bottomed in the $65,000 to $70,000 Range
Zach Pandl, Grayscale's Research Director, noted in a recent report that Bitcoin's price fell to around $63,000 in early February, then rebounded over 20%, currently hovering around $76,000, slightly above the recent average cost basis for buyers. Utilizing Bitcoin's on-chain transparency, analysts are focusing on a key metric—the "realized price," which is the weighted average price of all circulating coins based on their last on-chain transfer price; for Bitcoin that has transferred on-chain in the last 1 to 3 months, this realized price is currently about $74,000, indicating that new buyers in this time frame have returned to breakeven overall.
Pandl stated that if Bitcoin's price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers will shift from unrealized losses to unrealized gains, which is often seen as a typical signal for the resumption of the first phase of a bull market, as "increased profit-taking without triggering significant selling pressure" usually means that the holdings are more likely to be absorbed by medium to long-term investors. The report concluded that although the current price is still significantly below last October's peak, the on-chain cost and holding structure suggest that the $65,000 to $70,000 range has repeatedly acted as a support zone during price corrections, and the recent turnover of buyers in this range back to the cost line may indicate that this price level has evolved into a relatively stable market bottom.
Source: Public Information
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Pandl's perspective on the "realized price" essentially looks at an invisible "on-chain holding cost curve": traditional technical analysis only considers price and volume, while realized price records the last transfer price of each coin, thus depicting the cost distribution of different holding time layers—who is making money and who is stuck. When the realized price for the recent 1–3 months of buyers is around $74,000, and the current price is slightly above this level, it indicates that this batch of funds has just surfaced from underwater: they are no longer forced to "lock up and take hits," but have not yet formed a panic for large-scale profit-taking. This state of "collective breakeven but not aggressively taking profits" historically often appears before a re-acceleration in the early to mid-stages of a bull market, rather than at the top.
The $65,000–$70,000 range is viewed as a "relatively solid bottom," with the logic being that the chips above this range have been tested multiple times by the market, with significant spot buying and whale accumulation accompanying each drop below it. On-chain data shows that this area has formed a high-density cost zone, equivalent to the "average entry price of a new generation of investors." When the price repeatedly tests this area without effectively breaking through with volume, and the realized price continues to rise after each retest, it indicates that low-position chips are transferring to more patient holders—using terms from institutions like Glassnode, this means "short-term supply is maturing into long-term supply." Once this cost zone is repeatedly solidified, market psychology will naturally regard it as a "defensive line": dropping to this level is seen as cheap, while dropping below it is unexpected, and this collective recognition will in turn strengthen support.
Comparing this structure with history, Pandl's judgment leans more towards a "cyclical continuation rather than an ending": Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction from the October peak to the $63,000 in February, which has cleared some high leverage and chasing funds; it then rebounded to over $70,000, but still has comforting space below the previous high, with short-term holders just breaking even rather than deeply profiting, resulting in limited selling pressure at this time. If the price can steadily hold above $75,000 without extreme surges and uncontrolled volume, and continue to drive the realized price upward, it will reinforce the narrative that the previous correction was merely a mid-term reshuffle, providing psychological and on-chain foundations for subsequent targets (such as $80,000 or even $100,000). Conversely, if the price repeatedly rises and falls within the current range, causing short-term holders to fall back into the loss zone, it would indicate that this rebound is still part of a fluctuating structure, and the "bottom" will require more time for back-and-forth turnover and macro coordination to confirm.