Trump stated that he is likely to meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in New York this week, using the opportunity of the high-level United Nations General Assembly meeting to engage in discussions regarding the nearly seven-month stalemate in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Trump also described himself as being in "decision mode," and has not yet determined whether or when to take new military action against Iran.

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting joint airstrikes against Iran since February 28, 2026, triggering a nearly seven-month-long Gulf War that has disrupted global shipping trade routes and driven up global energy prices. Iran has conveyed seven ceasefire conditions through Qatar, including the unfreezing of Iranian assets, lifting the U.S. Navy's blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and resolving tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi forces.

Trump's statements regarding Iran are filled with duality—on one hand, he expresses a "willingness" to engage in dialogue, while on the other hand, he hinted through Fox News about "whether to blow up the whole country" and warned that "very significant things will happen soon." Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, responded by warning that if the U.S. launches a new round of attacks, it will face a strong counterattack and consider other regional countries as accomplices.

The high-level United Nations General Assembly meeting will be held from September 22 to 29, with the general debate opening on September 22. Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian have received U.S. visas to attend, but State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott announced that the Iranian delegation's activities in New York will be strictly limited to their residence and the UN headquarters, prohibiting visits to retail locations such as Costco, Sam's Club, and Walmart, and restricting media access as well.

A former White House official believes that this meeting period provides a "window of opportunity for closed-door consultations to seek some consensus on ceasefire arrangements" for both the U.S. and Iran, but as of now, there is no official confirmation of a formal bilateral meeting, and Trump's statements remain at the level of "possible meeting," with significant uncertainty.

From a market perspective, if the U.S. and Iran use this opportunity to advance ceasefire negotiations, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the supply gap of approximately 10 to 14 million barrels per day in the Middle East may gradually ease, which would directly impact JPMorgan's previous pessimistic forecast of global oil inventories reaching operational limits in September. However, if the meeting fails to achieve substantial progress or even collapses, Trump's statement about "blowing up the whole country" could indicate further escalation of the conflict, leading to significant volatility in oil and refined product prices in the short term.

Source: Public Information