The president says not to touch interest rates but forwards the 3.5% market prediction to speculators. Low growth was once an excuse for inaction, but the semiconductor boom has removed that excuse. The central bank has already raised rates twice to 3%, with the dot plot indicating the next hike within six months. Housing prices, household debt, the won, and import inflation are all on the same policy table, with rate hikes serving four purposes, leading to imprecision.

The capital pathway is the policy rate entering mortgage repricing. Money flows from mortgage borrowers' monthly payments into banks' net interest. AI chip exports have raised the growth forecast to 3.3%, while core inflation remains sticky above the target. Public acquisitions are a safety valve for rapid declines, indicating that authorities are simultaneously preventing bubbles and collapses. Delinquencies and auctions are leading indicators, with the winning bid rate being highlighted by the president, urging the market to clarify liquidation prices.

The benchmark is the interest rate hike cycle for South Korean household debt from 2022 to 2023, as well as Australia's use of interest rates to suppress housing prices. Small open economies are in a phase of "export overheating, real estate not cooling": chips are profitable, apartments are leveraged. The central bank's independence is verbally stated, while the president forwards investment bank reports on the timeline, both signaling to speculators.

Structurally, pricing power is partially returning to interest rates. The mechanism is: when low growth no longer constitutes a political constraint, normalization shifts from a choice to a timetable. Housing prices are listening for the next 25 basis points, not for the president's statement of non-intervention. If 3.5% materializes, auction markets will price before press conferences.

ABAB News · Law of Cognition

Claiming not to intervene in interest rates while forwarding rate hike predictions is also a form of intervention.
Once low growth is removed by export prosperity, the excuse for inaction is lost.
Housing prices and household debt are listening for the next 25 basis points, not for the word "independent" in the statement.