Wintermute Reports Crypto Market Entering Late Bear Phase
Wintermute released its latest market report indicating that Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000 and Ethereum has weakened concurrently, marking the crypto market's entry into the late phase of a bear market, although the true cycle bottom may not have been reached yet.
The report highlights a cooling in AI trading, declines in the Nasdaq and semiconductor indices, a rise in PCE inflation to 4.1%, and a strengthening dollar, all of which are suppressing risk assets, with funds rotating into small-cap stocks and government bonds.
The current Fear and Greed Index is at 18-24, with half of Bitcoin's circulating supply at a loss, and ETF net outflows of about $1.8 billion, indicating a lack of reinvestment.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Wintermute has consistently released market analyses as a crypto market maker, and this report continues its sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions and capital flows, similar to its assessments of bottom characteristics during the 2022 bear market.
In terms of capital pathways, companies like Strategy that hold Bitcoin reserves are adjusting frameworks to increase dividends and authorize BTC sales, indicating a shift in buying conditions aimed at reducing leverage risk but also weakening permanent buy support, reflecting institutional risk management in a high-interest rate environment.
Similar to the late stages of the bear markets in 2018 or 2022, this move places the crypto market in a transitional phase from AI-driven tech stock correlations to macro-led bottom formation.
Essentially, this is a combination of capital concentration and regulatory changes, with macro tightening and cooling AI leading to capital outflows, driven by ETF outflows and amplified panic from floating losses, but historical seasonality suggests that liquidity improvement and bottom confirmation may occur in September-October.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Panic is not the bottom; significant capital reinflow is the confirmation signal.
Permanent buying has turned into conditional buying, accelerating the cycle cleansing of leverage.
Summer lacks a bottom, while autumn reveals the truth; macro and liquidity will determine the final direction.