President Donald Trump: Oil Prices Will Drop Only After the Election
U.S. President Donald Trump stated to reporters at Andrews Joint Base that oil prices will only drop after the midterm elections are "over," and that gasoline prices will fall below $2 per gallon only after the elections. He also predicted that the war would "immediately end after the elections."
He was on his way to Texas to attend a Republican midterm conference. On that day, Brent crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since July; U.S. benchmark crude was around $96. The AAA national average price for regular gasoline was reported at $4.22 per gallon, up about 7 cents from the previous day and more than $1 higher year-on-year; diesel averaged $5.94. He claimed that Iran wants to wait until after the elections to ensure Congress is filled with "weak people" to preserve its nuclear weapons, but that they "cannot hold out much longer."
The conflict has entered its seventh month. Since September 5, the U.S. has claimed to have destroyed eight Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in response to missile attacks on U.S. ships, and Trump stated that there would be more strikes against oil tankers. The risk of passage through the Strait of Hormuz has increased the risk premium. Recently, he wrote on social media that oil prices would drop rapidly after a victory in the war, but now he has changed his stance to "a little later than the midterm elections."
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan expressed skepticism about the prediction that prices will drop after the elections. Vice President JD Vance avoided discussing the timeline for "ending the war before the elections" last week. The national average price for gasoline remained above $4 throughout August, with an average of about $4.15 during Labor Day week, being labeled as the most expensive year for the holiday. In April, he had told Fox that oil prices might be similar or even slightly higher in November.
The White House previously attributed rising energy prices to the phase impact of the Iran conflict and stated that non-energy goods had not been pushed higher simultaneously. Trump also requested the Justice Department to investigate whether refiners were not passing on the decline in crude oil prices to pump prices. The Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates is constrained by energy inflation. With the congressional elections approaching on November 3, gasoline is one of the prices voters feel most directly.
In market mechanisms, buyers include airlines, trucking, and refineries replenishing stocks, while sellers are crude oil bulls holding Middle Eastern risk premiums and finished oil inventories. The event-driven aspect comes from the president tying the ceasefire timing to the election date, with short-term oil prices priced under "no downgrade before the election." Beneficiaries include wartime freight, insurance, and strategic stockholders; those under pressure include retail gasoline consumers, road freight, and Republican campaign accounts relying on a narrow majority. A $2 pump price is a political goal, not the settlement price given by the current futures curve.
WTI, Brent, and RBOB gasoline futures have seen increased trading volatility after breaking $100; U.S. gasoline spot prices follow refinery operations and regional inventories, with the national average lagging crude oil prices by several weeks.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Trump treats pump prices as a politically deliverable promise: repeatedly pledging $2 gasoline from 2024 to 2026, reporting local prices of $1.99 and $1.85 in state addresses, and after the war began, changing his stance to "win first, then drop." By pinning the timeline to after November 3 at a military airport, he effectively admits that he cannot control the Strait premium before the election. The Justice Department's investigation into "oil companies not lowering pump prices" politicizes the refining margin, akin to the price controls of the 1970s, but with the tool replaced by investigative threats.
The capital flow path is that war premiums benefit tanker owners, insurance, and strategic oil reserve-related transactions, while domestic shale production cannot keep up with the expected disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The White House seeks a narrative post-election: war ends, oil prices collapse, inflation recedes, and pressure on the Federal Reserve resumes. Iran is described as "waiting until after the election," effectively writing military ceasefire authority into the domestic political calendar. Shale companies seek returns above $100 per rig, not a $2 retail price.
Comparative events include the 1973 and 1979 Middle East shocks tied to U.S. elections, the 1990 Gulf crisis raising gasoline prices and then facing setbacks midterm, and Biden's release of reserves after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict still failing to change election dynamics. The Republican Party is currently in a narrow majority preservation phase, with energy shifting from "production increase slogans" to "war tax" phase. GasBuddy and AAA data indicate that the national average has remained above $4 for months, with a gap between this and the $2 target due to refined oil crack spreads and retail markups, which cannot be instantly erased by a ceasefire.
Structural judgments belong to the overlap of regulatory changes and shifts in pricing power. The mechanism is: Strait risks shift crude oil pricing power from domestic production to maritime safety; the president gives the market an option for "supply recovery after the election" by tying it to the election date, keeping futures at high-risk premiums before the election. Whoever controls the timing of the ceasefire announcement temporarily controls the oil price narrative; refiners and retailers then use inventory cycles to lag the transmission of upstream declines, making pump prices a variable in elections rather than a pure spot result.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
- Pump prices are votes, futures are war insurance
- Writing the ceasefire date as election day means the premium won't leave first
- Promising retail prices cannot control the Strait and refinery price differentials.