The U.S. House leadership has canceled the voting schedule for September 21 and 28, with lawmakers expected to leave on September 17. The next regular legislative work is pointed to after the November 3 midterm elections. As a result, the Clarity Act, which addresses the structure of the crypto market, is more likely to be pushed into the post-election lame-duck session.

The Senate plans to initiate a procedural vote on the bill on September 15, requiring 60 votes. Even if it passes, it would only begin the review process, and if the Senate amends the text, it must be sent back to the House for another vote. The House has already passed its version, but only about four days remain for voting after reconvening, and the departure on the 17th leaves little time for coordination between the two chambers. The leadership did not specifically name the bill when announcing the rescheduling, which compresses all texts that require inter-chamber coordination.

The core of the bill is to clarify the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets. Ethical clauses, anti-money laundering, and opposition from the banking sector remain obstacles for the Senate to gather votes, with Democrats needing to provide at least about seven votes. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins had pointed to a vote on September 15. The prediction market places the probability of the legislation taking effect in 2026 at about 20%. Galaxy Research's head stated that passing it before the election is "extremely unlikely." The next scheduled voting date is pointed to November 9, by which time the seat structure may have changed.

The buyers are the crypto industry that needs federal rules to allow banks and exchanges to expand their balance sheets, while the sellers are the House leadership that wants to prioritize the election schedule over controversial legislation. The event-driven aspect comes from the eight-day cut in the session, rather than a sudden collapse of the text. The beneficiaries are platforms that maintain the status quo of regulatory arbitrage, while the pressured parties are industry groups that have bet their lobbying efforts on the fall window.

Source: Public Information