Chevron CEO Wirth: Global "Fuel Crisis" Has Arrived
According to The Wall Street Journal, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned at an energy industry conference in Austin, Texas, that the global "fuel crisis" has arrived.
Wirth pointed out that various mechanisms that previously helped buffer oil prices and supply risks have now been largely exhausted, and the market has lost the buffer space it had at the beginning of the crisis.
The direct trigger of this crisis is the military conflict between Iran and the US-led coalition that began at the end of February 2026—Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transport route (accounting for over 20% of global oil trade), and launched attacks on the energy infrastructure of Iran and Gulf Cooperation Council countries; on March 18, Iran also struck Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex, leading to a 17% drop in Qatar's production capacity. As of September, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb has disrupted 39% of global trade flow.
In recent data, after the Saudi Arabia East-West oil pipeline was attacked, about 2.5 million barrels per day of crude oil supply was hindered; domestic diesel prices in the US have risen to a historical high of about $6.20-$6.23 per gallon, while gasoline prices are around $4.30-$4.32 per gallon; US crude oil prices are about $101 per barrel, having risen about 19% in three weeks, while Brent crude has risen above $105, with some analysts predicting it could further rise to $120-$130; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level has fallen to its lowest point since 1982, and commercial fuel inventories have been consumed for over six consecutive months.
In response to industry warnings, the US government has expressed a relatively optimistic stance—Interior Secretary Doug Burgum referred to the current supply disruptions as "temporary" and proposed measures such as boosting Venezuelan oil production and expanding domestic refining capacity, while denying speculation about a potential ban on refined oil exports; Energy Secretary Chris Wright had previously stated that rising oil prices would signal the market to incentivize more production capacity. This contrasts with the judgment of Wirth and other industry executives who emphasize that "the buffer space is nearly gone, and supply constraints may persist for a long time."
From a market mechanism perspective, the core mechanism of this crisis is the global oil trade's heavy reliance on the Strait of Hormuz as a single chokepoint (accounting for over 20% of global oil trade); once this channel is obstructed, the market's buffer capacity (strategic reserves, backup capacity, inventories) is gradually depleted after months of disruption, making the supply curve steeper, and any new shocks (such as pipeline attacks) will amplify into severe price fluctuations; the most affected are Asian countries that heavily rely on oil and LNG imports through the Strait of Hormuz (such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines), as well as the US domestic refined oil market that relies on single refining capacity expansion to alleviate pressure. Who benefits: US domestic refiners and shale oil producers with alternative capacity and export capabilities expand profit margins in a high oil price environment, while non-Middle Eastern capacities like Nigeria's Dangote refinery also take the opportunity to increase utilization rates; who is under pressure: citizens of developing countries with high energy import dependence and limited foreign exchange reserves face direct fuel rationing and soaring travel costs, and the US domestic airline industry has already seen bankruptcy cases (Spirit Airlines ceased operations on May 2), with global inflation and economic growth expectations under pressure— the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3%.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has characterized this event as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market"; the regions most severely impacted include Europe (where the Dutch TTF gas benchmark price once approached €60 per megawatt-hour), Slovenia (the first EU country to implement fuel rationing, limiting private car purchases to 50 liters per day), and Thailand (where diesel prices rose from 29.94 baht per liter to 50.54 baht).
ABAB AI Insight
The Strait of Hormuz, as a traditional "choke point" in global energy geopolitics, has historically been a strategic bargaining chip in conflicts in the Middle East—such as the "tanker war" during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, and Iran's repeated threats to close the strait in response to sanctions, which have caused severe fluctuations in international oil prices; the actual closure of the strait due to the 2026 conflict between Iran and the US-led coalition is the latest and most far-reaching instance of this long-standing geopolitical risk escalating from a "threat" to a "reality."
From a resource mobilization perspective, during this crisis, capital and capacity are accelerating their shift from the traditional Middle Eastern oil supply system reliant on the Strait of Hormuz to alternative capacities—US domestic shale oil and refining capacities, increased Venezuelan oil production, and non-Middle Eastern refining facilities like Nigeria's Dangote refinery are all gaining opportunities for additional capital investment and increased utilization rates during this crisis; this shift essentially represents a reallocation of global energy capital to "safer transportation paths with lower political risks" after repricing geopolitical risks.
Historical precedents of "global energy crises triggered by the disruption of a single transportation chokepoint" include the first oil crisis in 1973 (Arab oil embargo) and the second oil crisis in 1979 (Iranian revolution), both of which caused oil prices to double in the short term and profoundly changed global energy security strategies for decades thereafter (for example, the establishment of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve system was a lesson learned from the 1973 crisis). The current crisis is described by the IEA as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," with mechanisms of impact highly similar to those of the previous two oil crises, but the scale of trade involved (39% of global trade) far exceeds that of previous crises.
This essentially represents a dramatic adjustment of "industrial chain restructuring" and geopolitical risk pricing mechanisms: the global energy supply chain has long been built on the assumption of a "low-risk premium" for the Strait of Hormuz, and this conflict has completely shattered that assumption, forcing the market to reprice the geopolitical risks of transportation paths. Mechanistically, once such a restructuring occurs, even if future conflicts subside and the strait reopens, it will be difficult for the market to quickly restore previous expectations of a "low-risk premium"; the capital and policy tilt gained by alternative capacities may remain partially retained even after the crisis ends, thereby permanently changing the degree of dependence of global oil trade on the Strait of Hormuz.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
- After the buffer is exhausted, any disturbance becomes a crisis.
- A chokepoint can rewrite the assumptions of global trade.
- The repricing of risks is hard to return to the original point.