Yi He: Pre-IPO Pricing for Anthropic Observed via Binance Contracts
Binance co-founder Yi He stated that if Anthropic becomes one of the largest AI IPOs, the pre-IPO pricing can be observed through Binance's ANTHROPICUSDT.
This contract is a USDT margin perpetual that will go live on June 2, 2026, with Anthropic PBC as the underlying asset, an estimated equity of about 1 billion shares, a maximum leverage of approximately 20 times, and a pre-IPO funding rate capped within a range. Holders do not have equity or voting rights, and it is cash-settled. The marking price will take the recent average transaction price from the exchange before the official issue price appears. The latest round of public financing for Anthropic estimated its valuation at around $96.5 billion; the perpetual price once implied a valuation close to $2 trillion, about double the amount of that round. Binance Research indicated that the implied valuation reached about $2 trillion in August and noted that if the marketing window extends to mid-October, there is still debate on how much of the IPO has been factored into the pre-market curve. Coinbase and others have suggested that the final issue price could deviate from the perpetual price by about 25%. Pre-market contracts for SpaceX have previously traded above the final issue price.
At the same time, Bitget, Coinbase, and others have also launched similar contracts, with significant trading volume in June for the Pre-IPO perpetual. Different assumptions about equity capital among exchanges require conversion for comparison of company valuations.
Mechanically, this represents synthetic pricing before the IPO: exchanges use perpetual contracts to create a tradable dollar curve for private companies. The beneficiaries are the platforms providing leverage and funding fees; the pressured parties are traders treating perpetual prices as holding costs and the actual shareholders facing expectation management at issuance. Funds circulate within the USDT margin account and do not enter Anthropic's balance sheet.
Yi He's focus is on liquidity entry, not the prospectus. The contract price is not the issue price, and the estimated equity is not the final equity.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Private companies do not yet have stock codes, and the perpetual contract provides one first. The 1 billion shares are a benchmark set by the exchange to make the price readable; if the benchmark changes, the dollar quote follows, while the valuation narrative can remain unchanged. The $96.5 billion is from equity financing discussions, while the $2 trillion is from leveraged trading, with the difference being the expectation of the IPO and funding fees. Yi He frames their contract as an observation window, acknowledging that pricing power temporarily lies in derivatives, not in investment bank roadshows.
Capital structure is split: primary market shareholders face lock-up periods, while perpetual traders seek price differences. If the issue date is below the curve, long leveraged positions bear the convergence; if above, shorts bear it. SpaceX has already demonstrated a "high first, then back" path in pre-market. The research department writes multiples as a function of revenue forecasts, while the trading department writes the same number as funding fees.
This contrasts with the gray market before ADRs and the disputes over the issuer's consent for tokenized stocks. The industry is transitioning from private equity valuations to all-weather synthetic indices: whoever first provides a tradable benchmark defines "what the market thinks it is worth."
This represents a transfer of pricing power: pre-IPO pricing shifts from financing rounds to perpetual curves. The mechanism allows trading prices without stocks, while equity remains on the shareholder register.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- A price can be given by perpetual contracts before there is a stock code.
- The implied trillion is a benchmark for leveraged trading, not shares in shareholders' hands.
- The distance between the issue price and the pre-market curve is the real IPO risk.