Donald Trump: US Almost Completely Controls Strait of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump stated that the US has "almost complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz and has cleared all local mines. He also mentioned that once the war with Iran is won and concluded, gasoline and oil prices will "drop like a rocket launched in reverse."
The White House previously released materials stating that international shipping lanes are clear of mines, with nearly 1,500 commercial vessels passing through under US protection, transporting about 750 million barrels of crude oil, and claiming that Iran's onshore crude oil exports have been zero since July. Trump has repeatedly referred to the naval blockade as a "steel wall." Iran has claimed that the Strait is still under its control and has fired on vessels passing without its permission; conflicts since the February US-Israel airstrikes have driven up oil prices, and shipping in the Strait was nearly halted at one point.
In an interview with Fox, he said that NATO allies and South Korea have refused to participate in US actions against Iran, and he will remember this. He stated that the US has invested billions of dollars in NATO and South Korea, with about 40,000 soldiers stationed in South Korea, and when he asked for assistance, the response was "No, thank you." Official figures show that there are about 28,500 US troops in South Korea. He said that if partners are unwilling to contribute, the US cannot continue to be a fool and help, thus "will make a lot of money."
The South Korean government stated that it has participated in discussions on ceasefire and resumption of navigation and has consulted with the US on military contributions. Trump has ordered a significant reduction in the planned US-South Korea joint military exercises over the past two weeks. He has noted allies that did not send minesweepers or escort forces on his memory list.
In market mechanisms, those paying are writing the passage through the Strait as a downward option for oil prices, while those selling are rewriting alliance obligations into expected charges. The event is driven by presidential statements, with funds switching between expectations for crude oil, gasoline, and defense spending; benefiting are the protected vessels still able to pass through the Strait, while under pressure are the allies named in the "memory" defense burden negotiations.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Control is a completed action in his words, while in oil prices it remains ongoing. Mine clearance, escorting, and ship interception are framed as a steel wall, while gasoline as a "reverse rocket" is framed as post-war dividends. Allies refusing to send ships are rewritten from collective defense into a bill to be collected. The number of stationed troops is said to be 40,000, while official figures show a different number. The memory list is established before treaty texts.
The capital path is determined by the Strait's traffic volume affecting the crude oil curve, while defense burdens determine the next military exercise and troop bill. Money flows from tanker insurance and crude oil futures into energy companies and transport insurance, then from the US defense budget into reduced joint exercises. South Korea and NATO are named, shifting the costs of Middle Eastern shipping negotiations to bilateral defense counters. Those who do not send minesweepers will face the "will make money" reverse clause.
The benchmark is the 1980s tanker escort and how Trump framed troop presence as rent during his first term. The alliance is at a stage where "collective security is broken down into individual transactions": the US wants ships deployed on the spot, while allies want to avoid writing Middle Eastern wars into their national parliaments. Oil prices need to drop, but first, ships must dare to pass; for ships to dare to pass, someone must first acknowledge who is in charge.
Structurally, this represents a transfer of pricing power. The mechanism is: when the Strait shifts from a geographical passage to a tool of war, the pricing of passage rights changes from freight costs to presidential declarations and allied troop deployments. Mine clearance can reduce physical risks but cannot lower the political bill. Gold and oil prices respond to production levels, but also to who is written into the "will remember" list.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
- Control of the Strait is first written in statements, then in the number of passing ships.
- Once collective defense is broken down into transactions, not sending ships will appear on the bill.
- The rocket of oil prices is ignited by the end of war, not just a prediction.