Rick Dungey, Executive Director of the National Christmas Tree Association: Real Trees are America's Alternative
Rick Dungey, Executive Director of the National Christmas Tree Association, stated that Chinese artificial Christmas tree importers have applied to the U.S. government for tariff exemptions, claiming there are no American alternatives. His response is that there are American alternatives, which are real trees.
The interview covered industry structure, the planting economy that takes 6 to 8 years to yield, the selection of trees for the White House, timing of purchases, survival rates, tariffs on imported fake trees from China, and Trees for Troops on the same timeline. The crop cycle is singled out as a core variable: it takes 6 to 8 years from planting to achieve marketable yield, and production cannot be temporarily expanded based on seasonal orders.
Since 1966, trees used by the White House have been selected from U.S. Christmas tree farms. Growers must first win state competitions before entering national competitions to qualify to supply trees. Dungey mentioned that this allows the industry to explain to millions each year that the White House decorations are around real trees from farms, not plastic trees from China.
He referred to imported fake trees as price pressure on family farms, rather than a substitute product. The logic of the importers' exemption is that the U.S. does not produce similar plastic trees; the association's rebuttal is that demand can be met by real trees, and therefore artificial trees should not be classified as non-substitutable goods eligible for tariff reduction.
This is not a real-time quote. Buyers are year-end families and retailers, while sellers include U.S. and Canadian real tree farms and artificial tree factories and importers primarily from China. The event is driven by exemption applications and tariff levels: when the tax burden raises the landed cost of fake trees, real trees gain relative pricing; if the exemption is granted, the pressure returns to the farms. Beneficiaries are growers with existing tree inventories, while those under pressure are new growers who must wait another growth cycle and importers with inventory already at sea.
The public segments did not provide this season's farm quotes, whether the exemption was approved, or the number of trees for Trees for Troops. Three points can be verified: importers applied for exemptions citing no American alternatives, Dungey responded with real trees, and the White House trees have been selected from state competitions to national competitions since 1966.
Source: Public Information
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The National Christmas Tree Association represents real tree farms, not artificial tree importers. In 2025, tariffs on fake trees fluctuate between 10% and 145% depending on the port arrival time, with the American Christmas Tree Association stating that fake tree prices have increased by 10% to 15%. At that time, Fortune quoted Dungey stating that the real tree market has largely remained unaffected by the trade war, with Canadian trees exempt from tariffs under agreements covering most U.S.-Canada trade, and farm sales are still busy. In July 2026, the association's president, Scott Powell, a second-generation farmer from Michigan, submitted comments to the U.S. Trade Representative's office opposing the classification of Chinese artificial trees as non-sensitive goods eligible for tariff reduction, arguing that low-priced imports have eroded the family farm market for twenty years.
Money is tied up in the growth cycle. A marketable tree takes 6 to 8 years to grow, with costs for fertilizer, labor, and land incurred upfront, and returns received during the harvest season. The costs of artificial trees are incurred at Chinese factories and through shipping; importers like National Tree Company have shifted some production capacity to Cambodia after tariff impacts, but components like light strings still heavily rely on China. The association aims to protect not just seasonal sales but also the inventory that has already been planted and has yet to be monetized from being devalued by tax-exempt plastic trees.
This is akin to the path faced by timber and cotton against synthetic alternatives: natural supply has seasonal and land constraints, while industrial substitutes can stockpile across seasons. According to the American Christmas Tree Association, about 80% of households that display trees have long-term used fake trees, a ratio that has remained nearly unchanged for over a decade. Real trees are in a defensive share phase, not an expansion phase; tariffs merely temporarily redirect some price-sensitive buyers back.
The essence is a transfer of pricing power. Fake trees have transformed Christmas trees from annual agricultural products into durable goods that are replaced every five years, shifting purchasing decisions away from farms to importers and mass retailers. The exemption application attempts to frame "the U.S. does not manufacture plastic trees" as having no alternatives, thus regaining cost advantages. The association uses the White House's tradition of sourcing trees from farms since 1966 as a counterargument, defining real trees as having existing supply. If taxes are lowered, pricing power returns to plastics; if taxes remain, pricing power temporarily stays with the already grown trees.
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- The longer the growth cycle, the more afraid of competitors being able to stockpile.
- Substitutes are not just fillers; substitutes are pricing power.
- In the exemption application, even without capacity, it can be framed as having no supply.