Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a moderated dialogue at the IMF Annual Meeting in Bangkok on October 16 local time, which is 11:30 AM Beijing time and 11:30 PM Eastern time on October 15.

According to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, the dialogue will include IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, occurring just before officials enter a quiet period. The annual meeting runs from October 12 to 18. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, making this Warsh's public appearance before the quiet period.

The format is a moderated dialogue, not a prepared policy speech or congressional testimony. Timiraos noted that it could be used to reinforce or correct messages already released by other senior Fed officials this week. In the U.S., this corresponds to the overnight market, where forex and short-term rates often react more than during daytime speeches.

The September meeting raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, with a unanimous vote of 12-0, marking the first rate hike of 2023. Minutes from the meeting indicated discussions focused on the timing and frequency of future rate hikes. Among the 18 participants, 12 believed another hike this year would be appropriate, with no one projecting rate cuts in 2027. Warsh's statement was brief, lacking forward guidance, and emphasized achieving price stability. Purchases of securities for reserve management have been paused.

This week, other officials are not in agreement. Some believe the next hike can wait, while others suggest the range needs to increase by 50 basis points or more. Timiraos labeled the Bangkok event as the last opportunity for public commentary before the quiet period begins. After the quiet period starts, the chairman will not make policy statements until the declaration on October 28.

Buyers are betting on short-term rates and dollar positions either increasing or holding steady in October, while sellers are hedging risk assets before the meeting. The event is driven by the window before the quiet period, not the resolution itself. Funds will reprice front-end rates around 11:30 AM Beijing time. If he reiterates price stability without providing a path, hawkish rate hike trades will continue to hold. If he pushes back the timing of the next hike, positions betting on an October increase will come under pressure. The resolution will still await voting on the 27th and 28th.

Source: Public Information