Vanguard: Current AI is Similar to 1980s ATMs, Real Job Reductions Come from Mobile Banking
Vanguard points out that today's artificial intelligence has a similar trajectory to ATMs in the 1980s, when ATMs were predicted to replace bank tellers.
In reality, the total number of tellers remained stable or even increased for a long time after the widespread adoption of ATMs, while the real significant job reductions occurred decades later with the rise of mobile banking, which also gave rise to new professions such as cybersecurity and digital products.
This viewpoint is part of a macro employment narrative driven by events, temporarily easing market fears of large-scale unemployment due to AI, benefiting fintech and bank digitalization-related assets, while putting pressure on purely human intermediary service sectors.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Vanguard has long been a leader in index and passive investing, and its research team continues to track the lagging effects of technology on labor structure. Historically, the institution has frequently cited the ATM case in reports on interest rates and employment cycles to correct the market's linear expectations of automation.
In terms of capital pathways, Vanguard itself absorbs long-term savings through large-scale ETFs and index products, indirectly benefiting from the reduced operating costs and profit expansion due to bank digitalization, rather than directly investing in cutting-edge AI model companies. Its viewpoint serves to reduce short-term volatility and extend holding periods.
A similar pathway can be seen in the impact of automated checkout systems on retail cashiers in the 1990s: initially, jobs did not drastically decrease until e-commerce restructured the consumption process, leading to structural contraction. Current AI is in a task enhancement phase, with its industry position still being one of tool diffusion rather than process rewriting.
This essentially represents a structural change with a time lag due to technological substitution. Automation first lowers unit costs and expands demand, allowing the total number of jobs to be maintained or even grow; true substitution occurs only after customer behavior and organizational processes are completely rewritten, leading capital to prefer betting on platforms and infrastructure rather than purely labor replacement narratives.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
Task automation first expands demand; process restructuring then reduces jobs.
The real time lag of technological impact is often measured in decades.
The speed of new job creation determines net employment outcomes.