Bitwise raises its 2036 Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million
In its report Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin 2027 released on October 28, 2026, crypto asset manager Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin price base target from $1.3 million to about $1.6 million, specifically $1,599,766, corresponding to a 34.3% compounded annual growth rate starting from about $83,557 as of September 30, 2026.
Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the company kept its market share assumptions unchanged, but raised its 2036 estimate for the global store-of-value market from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. The base case assumes that bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets.
The report also gave a bear case of $130,700 and a bull case of about $3.67 million. Bitwise said that about 20.1 million bitcoins, or 95.7% of the maximum supply of 21 million, are already in circulation. Hougan said that bitcoin is more favorably viewed today than it was last year and expects it to become the best-performing major institutional asset over the next decade.
Original sources:
Title: Bitwise raises bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, projects 34% annualized returns Publisher: The Block Publication date: 2026-10-28 URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-28-bitwise-raises-bitcoin-price-target-to-1-6-million-by-2036-projects-34-annualized-returns-432010 Source type: financial news Verification: read in this session, and cross-checked against Bitwise's official statement, verification date 2026-10-29 Supported content: target increase, growth rate, market assumptions and scenario range
Title: Our updated bitcoin forecast for 2036... Publisher: Bitwise (@Bitwise) Publication date: 2026-10-28 URL: https://x.com/Bitwise/status/2115494114980458741 Source type: official social media Verification: read in this session Supported content: specific base, bear and bull case prices
ABAB AI Insight
Bitwise's model is mainly based on expansion of the store-of-value market, competing with gold, in terms of market share. The report shows that this category contributes about 82% of the valuation in the base case. Institutional allocation is expected to contribute about 9%. The company did not change its market share assumptions; the main reason for the increase is a larger estimate of the total market size.
Compared with average forecasts for U.S. stocks (about 6.7%) and private equity (about 10.8%), Bitwise's 34.3% annualized expectation is significantly higher. The report also lowered its volatility expectations and mentioned quantum computing and AI-driven mathematical progress as potential risks. The previous target was $1.3 million for 2035.
This forecast is a long-term assumption rather than a short-term price guide. Bitwise emphasized institutional adoption, fixed supply, and concerns about currency debasement as supporting factors. The actual price will depend on the pace of adoption and market conditions.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin base price target to about $1.6 million, corresponding to 34.3% annualized growth.
The base case assumes that bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional assets.