JPMorgan Expects Bitcoin to Outperform US Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade
JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report for the first time, predicting a compound annual return of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years. This figure is higher than the 7.5% for large US stocks, 5.5% for gold, and 8.2% for US REITs.
The report also provides an arithmetic average annual return for Bitcoin of approximately 20.9% and an annual volatility of 55%, significantly higher than the approximately 18% for large stocks and 17.2% for gold. Bitcoin is listed as the asset class with the highest return in the report's historical long-term forecasts.
Previously, the research team set a shorter-term price target of around $170,000 and reiterated a long-term scenario of parity with gold at approximately $266,000 after adjusting for volatility. The current trading price of Bitcoin is about $82,000.
This marks the first time Bitcoin has entered JPMorgan's annual long-term capital market assumptions. Discussions on asset allocation are expanding from traditional assets to include Bitcoin, but its high volatility means returns come with significant price fluctuations.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan noted that traditional institutions are shifting from neglecting Bitcoin to including it in long-term forecasts, viewing it as the best-performing asset over the next decade. The market is focused on how institutional assumptions will affect portfolio construction.
Source: Public Information
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JPMorgan Asset Management has long published reports on long-term capital market assumptions, covering returns and risks across various asset classes. This time, it has included Bitcoin for the first time and provided the highest compound return assumption. The approach shifts from external research on crypto assets to a formal long-term assumption framework.
In terms of capital allocation, the assumptions are used for institutional portfolio construction and asset allocation discussions. The strategic motivation is to assess Bitcoin's long-term return potential as an independent asset class while clarifying its high volatility characteristics, comparing it alongside stocks, gold, and REITs.
Similar cases involve other large asset management firms gradually incorporating Bitcoin into their long-term forecasts or allocation frameworks. Currently, institutions are transitioning from short-term trading perspectives to long-term capital assumptions.
This fundamentally represents a change in pricing power and asset class status. By including Bitcoin in formal long-term assumptions and providing the highest return forecast, the mechanism reflects that institutions are beginning to evaluate its risk-return profile using the same framework as traditional assets while retaining high volatility as a core risk characteristic.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Ten-year compound return of 10%, volatility of 55%
First time entering long-term assumptions, numbers already at the forefront
Assumption of outperforming stocks and gold is documented in the report