Robinhood Predicts Q2 Market Revenue of $156 Million, First Time Exceeding Stock and Crypto
Robinhood predicts Q2 market revenue will grow over 10 times year-on-year to $156 million, surpassing stock and crypto trading revenue for the first time.
Event contracts contributed $156 million, while crypto trading revenue was $100 million (down 38% year-on-year), and stock trading revenue was $129 million; the growth is driven by speculators shifting to betting on real-world events.
On the market level, the prediction market has jumped from a niche product to a major revenue source; capital and users are flowing to event contract platforms, while traditional crypto and stock trading face pressure, and demand for real-world betting is rising.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Since launching election contracts in 2024, Robinhood has gradually expanded its prediction market, establishing a dedicated center in 2025 and partnering with Susquehanna to launch the Rothera exchange; Q2 event contract volume reached 13.6 billion, becoming the fastest-growing business line.
On the capital front, the company is focusing resources on event contract infrastructure and regulatory compliance, motivated by capturing the shift of speculators from crypto to real events; this is reflected in building its own exchange to handle billions of contracts, with revenue structure shifting from crypto-dominated to diversified event-driven.
Similar cases can be seen in the expansion of specialized prediction market platforms like Kalshi, or user migration after the legalization of sports betting; current retail trading is transitioning from asset speculation to event outcome speculation.
Essentially, this is a demand reconstruction driven by technological substitution: as user preferences shift from price volatility to real-world outcomes, market mechanisms redistribute trading revenue through event contracts, concentrating pricing power on platforms that can compliantly offer diversified events.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Real-world events become new speculative targets
Revenue structure can completely flip within a quarter
Prediction markets are consuming traditional trading shares